mixed-mode probability
ANANES
ANES 2024 Time Series Study - pre-election wave · Aug 3, 2024 – Nov 5, 2024 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- ANES academic
- Sponsor
- American National Election Studies
- Fielded
- Aug 3, 2024 – Nov 5, 2024
- Population
- adult citizens
- Sample size
- 5,521
- Sample frame
- mixed-mode probability
- Mode
- face-to-face CAPI, phone, live video, self-administered web, and an abbreviated paper-and-pencil questionnaire
- Margin of error
- not disclosed
- Weighting
- ANES 2024 full-sample pre-election weight; analyses must be weighted to represent the U.S. adult citizen population
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- 5,521 pre-election interviews: 1,042 fresh in-person sample, 2,308 fresh web sample, 2,171 panel respondents carried forward from the 2016 and 2020 ANES studies
Sources
Verification note. Wording copied verbatim from the ANES 2024 Time Series questionnaire (items TRANSPOLICY_RESTRM and TRANSPOLICY_TRANSPRT). Percentages are UNWEIGHTED marginal frequencies printed in the Berkeley SDA HTML codebook for the ANES 2024 full release (V241370-V241375x); ANES publishes no weighted topline. NOTE the 2024 bathroom item is NOT comparable to 2016/2020: ANES replaced the two-option forced choice with a favor/oppose/neither format and reversed the direction of the stem.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (3)
ANES variable V241370 (TRANSPOLICY_RESTRM) - allowing transgender people to use public bathrooms matching gender identity
Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose allowing transgender people to use public bathrooms that match the gender they identify with?
Wording notes: FORMAT BREAK: replaces the 2016/2020 two-option forced choice with favor/oppose/neither, so the 2024 numbers are not a continuation of the earlier trend | explicit middle category absorbs a quarter of responses | no longer defines 'transgender people' in the stem
neutral — symmetric favor/oppose with explicit midpoint; the affirming policy is the object of the verb, which is the standard ANES construction
ANES summary variable V241372x - bathroom item folded with strength (7-point)
IF R FAVORS ALLOWING TRANSGENDER PEOPLE TO USE BATHROOM THAT MATCHES THE GENDER THEY IDENTIFY WITH / IF R OPPOSES ALLOWING TRANSGENDER PEOPLE TO USE BATHROOM THAT MATCHES THE GENDER THEY IDENTIFY WITH:
Do you [favor / oppose] that [a great deal, a moderate amount, or a little / a little, a moderate amount, or a great deal]?
Wording notes: 7-point folded scale with a true midpoint
neutral — standard ANES branching strength probe
ANES variable V241373 (TRANSPOLICY_TRANSPRT) - banning transgender girls from K-12 girls' sports
Several states have considered laws that would ban transgender girls from participating in K-12 girls' sports. Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose such a law?
Wording notes: the restrictive policy is the object of favor/oppose, so 'favor' = restrictive | legislative-salience preamble ('Several states have considered laws') establishes the policy as already under serious consideration | explicit middle category offered
neutral — symmetric favor/oppose; the 'several states have considered' preamble is factually accurate but does supply a legitimating context cue, which is worth noting when comparing to items without a preamble