probability panel
AP-NORC
The May 2025 AP-NORC Center Poll (AmeriSpeak Omnibus) · May 2025 – May 5, 2025 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- AP-NORC media
- Sponsor
- The Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago
- Commissioned by
- The Associated Press
- Fielded
- May 2025 – May 5, 2025
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 1,175
- Sample frame
- probability panel
- Panel
- NORC AmeriSpeak Panel
- Mode
- AmeriSpeak Omnibus - self-administered web plus telephone interviews with panelists who do not use the internet
- Margin of error
- +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect (6.1 pts Democrats, 6.3 pts Republicans, 9.8 pts independents)
- Weighting
- poststratification to age, gender, census division, race/ethnicity, education, and 2024 presidential vote; targets from the 2024 Current Population Survey and final 2024 presidential vote turnout and vote choice
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- 1,101 completed via the web and 74 by telephone; 65 interviews removed in quality-assurance checks prior to weighting
Sources
Verification note. All question wordings and Total percentages copied directly from the AP-NORC May 2025 topline PDF. Party figures come from the narrative of the AP-NORC report page; the topline PDF itself publishes no party crosstab, so only the party numbers AP-NORC printed in prose are recorded. || Full topline PDF retrieved and text-extracted. Wording, response options and totals copied directly from the AP-NORC annotated topline (CURY2, TRANS1, TRANS3, TRANS4). AP-NORC's published topline reports totals only, so no party breaks are available from this document; the news write-up reports partisan patterns narratively only. || toplines read from the AP-NORC project page and AP's own write-up; AP-NORC did not print literal question stems on the retrieved page, so wordings are reconstructed from AP-NORC's descriptions and flagged as non-verbatim. Party breakdowns were described but not given numerically on the retrieved page. || WORDING RECOVERY SWEEP. All stems, grid-item texts, randomization instructions and toplines transcribed directly from AP-NORC's own May 2025 topline PDF. The database previously carried wordings reconstructed from AP-NORC's narrative project page. || Topline PDF downloaded and text-extracted in session; TRANS3 and TRANS4 stems, item texts and all response cells read directly. AP-NORC published party direction in the write-up narrative but not as numbers for every item; only figures printed as numbers are recorded.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (18)
Trump job approval on transgender issues
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling...? Transgender issues
Approve 171%222% Disapprove
Wording notes: asked in a randomized grid alongside the economy, immigration, and colleges/universities
neutral — standard symmetric approve/disapprove item; 'transgender issues' is undefined, which leaves respondents to supply their own referent, but the stem itself is not loaded
whether gender is determined by biological characteristics at birth
[HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right? Would you say:
Whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by their biological characteristics at birth
68%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that identity is different from their biological characteristics at birth
31%
Skipped/refused
1%
Wording notes: uses 'biological characteristics at birth' rather than 'sex assigned at birth' | no middle option offered | response order rotated across half samples
neutral — two alternatives are stated symmetrically and the order is rotated; 'biological characteristics at birth' is a contested framing but is matched against an explicit identity alternative
Subgroup figures (2)
Medicare/Medicaid coverage of gender-affirming care for adults 19 and older
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose public health insurance programs, like Medicare or Medicaid covering gender-affirming medical treatment, such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for the following? People age 19 and older who are transgender or nonbinary
Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 23%Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 23%Strongly/somewhat oppose (NET) 53%Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 16%Strongly/somewhat oppose (NET) 66%
Wording notes: offers an explicit middle 'neither favor nor oppose' option | the illustrative treatments named ('puberty blockers and hormone therapy') are the same for the adult item as for the under-19 item, which is an odd fit for adults
double_barreled — the stem bundles the question of public insurance coverage with the question of whether the care should exist, and names 'puberty blockers' as an example even in the adults-19-and-older item
Subgroup figures (3)
allowing transgender people to serve in the military
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? Allowing transgender men and women to serve in the military
Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 37%
Wording notes: explicit middle option depresses both favor and oppose relative to forced-choice trend questions asked by other pollsters
neutral — symmetric favor/oppose with a neutral middle; policy described in plain terms
forced parental notification of a student's gender identity
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? Requiring public school teachers to report to parents if their children are identifying as transgender or nonbinary at school
Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 43%
Wording notes: 'report to parents' framing; no counter-consideration (student safety, outing risk) supplied
neutral — one-sided in that only the parental-notification rationale is implicit in the wording, but the response scale is symmetric and no evaluative language is used
banning gender-affirming medical treatment for people under 19
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? Banning gender-affirming medical treatment, such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for people under the age of 19
Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 46%
Wording notes: ban framing: 'favor' is the restrictive response, the reverse polarity of the TRANS3 coverage items | age cutoff of 19 rather than 18
neutral — the policy is named plainly as a ban and the scale is symmetric; the reversed polarity relative to TRANS3 is useful rather than biasing
transgender students' bathroom access in public schools
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? Allowing transgender students to use the bathrooms that match their gender identity in public schools
Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 22%
Wording notes: directly comparable in wording to the UChicago Harris/AP-NORC March 2022 SCHL4 item, but with an added 'in public schools' clause and a different scale layout
neutral — policy stated in the affirming direction with a symmetric scale and rotated response order
whether sex/gender is determined by biological characteristics at birth
[HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Which statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right? Would you say: Whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by their biological characteristics at birth / Someone can be a man or a woman even if that identity is different from their biological characteristics at birth
Whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by their biological characteristics at birth
68%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that identity is different from their biological characteristics at birth
31%
Skipped/Refused
1%
Wording notes: no middle option offered | response-option order rotated across half samples, mitigating primacy effects
neutral — Both alternatives are stated in parallel, neither uses evaluative language, and option order was rotated. This is close to the cleanest available construction for this measure.
four-item policy grid: military service, school parental notification, ban on care under 19, school bathrooms
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following?
Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 37%Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 43%Strongly/somewhat oppose (NET) 28%Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 46%Strongly/somewhat oppose (NET) 32%Strongly/somewhat favor (NET) 22%Strongly/somewhat oppose (NET) 55%
Wording notes: explicit middle option, which absorbs a large share (18-36%) on every item | the four rows are not directionally aligned - three are phrased as permissive ('allowing...') and one as restrictive ('banning...'), so 'favor' means the opposite thing across rows | the military row is the mirror image of Trump's January 2025 executive order, and support for allowing service (37% favor / 26% oppose) exceeds opposition
neutral — Each row states a single policy in plain terms with a symmetric scale and rotated options. Analysts must note the mixed directionality across rows, but no individual row is loaded.
allowing transgender people to serve in the military, measured with an explicit neutral option
Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose allowing transgender men and women to serve in the military?
Wording reconstructed from: reconstructed from AP-NORC's description of the item and its three-way favor/oppose/neither result split; literal stem not printed on the retrieved page
Wording notes: offers an explicit middle 'neither' category, which absorbs about a third of respondents and makes the topline non-comparable with Gallup's two-way forced choice
neutral — symmetric stem; the explicit neutral option is a design choice worth flagging for comparability, not a bias
whether being a man or woman is determined by sex assigned at birth
Do you think whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth?
Wording reconstructed from: reconstructed from AP-NORC's description ('whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth'); literal stem not printed
Determined by sex assigned at birth
68%
Wording notes: AP framed the finding as agreement with President Trump's position, a framing that appears in the write-up rather than the item
unclear — wording not verified against a topline
transgender students' bathroom access in public schools
Do you favor or oppose allowing transgender students to use the bathrooms that match their gender identity in public schools?
Wording reconstructed from: reconstructed from AP-NORC's description; literal stem not printed
unclear — wording not verified
banning gender-affirming care for under-19s regardless of payer
Do you favor or oppose banning gender-affirming medical treatment for people under the age of 19, no matter who is paying for it?
Wording reconstructed from: reconstructed from AP-NORC's description ('46% want to see treatment for people under the age of 19 banned no matter who is paying for it')
unclear — wording not verified
trans students using school bathrooms matching gender identity
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? [GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Allowing transgender students to use the bathrooms that match their gender identity in public schools
Strongly/somewhat favor NET 22%
Wording notes: explicit 'neither favor nor oppose' midpoint | grid items randomized | response-option order rotated across half samples
neutral — permissive direction stated, symmetric five-point scale with a genuine midpoint
banning gender-affirming medical treatment for people under 19
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? [GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Banning gender-affirming medical treatment, such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy, for people under the age of 19
Strongly/somewhat favor NET 46%
Wording notes: restrictive direction is the 'favor' pole | names the treatments (puberty blockers, hormone therapy) | explicit 'neither favor nor oppose' midpoint
neutral — policy stated plainly with a symmetric five-point scale and a genuine midpoint; naming the specific treatments is informative rather than loaded
trans people serving in the military
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? [GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Allowing transgender men and women to serve in the military
Strongly/somewhat favor NET 37%
Wording notes: explicit 'neither favor nor oppose' midpoint
neutral — plain policy statement, symmetric scale
mandatory parental notification when a student identifies as transgender at school
Do you favor, neither favor nor oppose, or oppose each of the following? [GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Requiring public school teachers to report to parents if their children are identifying as transgender or nonbinary at school
Strongly/somewhat favor NET 43%
Wording notes: explicit 'neither favor nor oppose' midpoint | frames the duty as teachers reporting to parents
neutral — 'report to parents' is directive language but describes the policy accurately; scale is symmetric
Trump approval on transgender issues
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED; HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling...?
Approve 52%46% Disapprove
Wording notes: grid item labelled only 'Transgender issues' with no policy content
neutral — standard approval item; the bare topic label leaves the referent to the respondent