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Blueprint
Blueprint post-election survey ("Why America Chose Trump" / post-mortem series) · Nov 6–7, 2024 · US national plus swing-state oversample
Data flag. q01 INTENSITY LABELS SHIFTED ONE STEP: recorded 'Very 39 / Somewhat 15 / Not very 18 / Not at all 28'; the source reads 'Extremely 39 / Very 15 / Somewhat 18 / Not at all 28'. Values and order are right, three of four names are wrong. The record's own pre-flagged MOE conflict (article +/-2.1 vs topline +/-3.7) was confirmed genuine.
Methodology
- Pollster
- Blueprint partisan_d
- Sponsor
- Blueprint
- Fielded
- Nov 6–7, 2024
- Population
- 2024 voters (registered national and swing-state voters who reported voting)
- Sample size
- 3,262
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- not disclosed
- Mode
- online - web panels
- Margin of error
- ±2.1 percentage points per Blueprint's web write-ups; the published topline PDF states ±3.7 on every page - the two figures conflict and Blueprint does not reconcile them
- Weighting
- weighted to education, age, gender, race, and 2020/2024 election results
- Geography
- US national plus swing-state oversample
- Base notes
- Includes a swing-state oversample of 1,883 voters; a later Blueprint release describes 3,623 total voters in targeted swing states and 757 swing voters. Key results are reported for 'swing voters who chose Trump'.
Sources
Verification note. Blueprint's 16-page post-election topline PDF was read directly for Q8 and Q9. The pairwise 'reasons not to vote for Harris' exercise reported at +17/+28 is NOT in the released topline - Blueprint says the full topline for that exercise is 'available upon request' - so those two figures are recorded from Blueprint's own published write-up rather than a topline.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (5)
accuracy of the critique that Democrats want to promote transgender ideology
Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is:
Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is: - Democrats want to promote transgender ideology
Extremely accurate
39%
Not at all accurate
28%
Somewhat accurate
18%
Very accurate
15%
Total accurate 72%Total not accurate 28%
Wording notes: 'transgender ideology' is a term of art from the political right, presented here without quotation marks or attribution | the battery contains only critiques of Democrats - no counterbalancing critiques of Republicans
loaded_terms — the item adopts an opponent's framing phrase ('transgender ideology') as if it were a neutral description; the design is deliberate - Blueprint is measuring how far right-wing framings have penetrated - but the resulting 72% 'accurate' figure measures uptake of the phrase, not any policy position
Subgroup figures (2)
accuracy of the critique that Democrats have extreme ideas about race and gender
Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is:
Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is: - Democrats have extreme ideas about race and gender
Wording notes: 'extreme' supplied by the pollster | bundles race and gender into one item
double_barreled — race and gender are combined so an agree response cannot be attributed to either; 'extreme' is also the pollster's characterization
Subgroup figures (2)
belief that Harris supported taxpayer-funded transition surgery for undocumented immigrants in prison
Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position:
Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position: - Using taxpayer dollars to pay for transgender surgeries for undocumented immigrants in prison
Kamala Harris supports this policy
60%
Kamala Harris does not support this policy
40%
Wording notes: this is the policy named in the Trump campaign's "Kamala is for they/them" advertising | the item restates the ad's claim in the ad's own terms | no don't-know option is offered, forcing a guess
loaded_terms — the item is a near-verbatim restatement of an attack ad's claim; with no 'not sure' option, respondents who never heard the claim must still pick a side, which inflates 'supports this policy'. Blueprint's purpose - measuring how completely the ad's frame took hold - is legitimate, but the figure should not be read as an independent belief measure.
Subgroup figures (2)
belief that Harris supported letting minors transition without informing parents
Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position:
Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position: - Allowing children under 18 to transition genders without informing their parents
Kamala Harris supports this policy
60%
Kamala Harris does not support this policy
40%
Wording notes: 'transition genders' without specifying social or medical transition | no don't-know option
loaded_terms — as with the surgeries item, this restates a campaign attack line and forces a binary answer with no not-sure escape
Subgroup figures (1)
relative importance of 'focused on cultural issues like transgender issues' as a reason not to vote for Harris
Respondents were presented with random pairs of potential reasons to vote against Harris and asked to select which reason they found more compelling.
Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class
"Inflation was too high under the Biden-Harris Administration" - selected 74% of the time, relative importance
24%
"Too many immigrants illegally crossed the border under the Biden-Harris Administration" - relative importance
23%
Relative importance score (points above the average criticism)
17%
Wording notes: MaxDiff-style pairwise design - the reported number is a relative importance score, not a percentage of respondents | all 25 items are criticisms of Harris; there is no positive or pro-Harris item in the pool
unclear — the pairwise design is a reasonable way to rank criticisms against each other, but because every item is a criticism the exercise cannot measure whether any of them mattered in absolute terms; the widely cited +17 / +28 figures are relative scores, not shares of voters
Subgroup figures (1)