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Cygnal

Cygnal September 2025 National Voter Trends (NVT) Survey · Sep 2–3, 2025 · US national

Methodology

Pollster
Cygnal partisan_r
Sponsor
Cygnal
Fielded
Sep 2–3, 2025
Population
likely voters
Sample size
1,500
Sample frame
unknown
Mode
not disclosed in the public deck; Cygnal markets its standard product as 'Multi-Mode Polling' but the deck carries no methodology statement
Margin of error
±2.51%
Weighting
not disclosed
Geography
US national

Sources

Verification note. Question wording, total and full crosstab read directly off the public Cygnal deck PDF (chart slide rendered to image and read; the deck's figures are drawn as chart graphics, not selectable text). Field dates, n and MoE from the deck cover slide. Cygnal publishes no methodology statement with these decks: mode, sample frame, weighting and response rate are all undisclosed. The deck's own narrative summarises this slide as '42% say being transgender is a mental illness, 44% say it is a natural variation'.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (1)

Identity beliefsforced choicein a trend series
whether being transgender is a mental illness or a natural variation of human identity

Do you believe being transgender is best described as a mental illness or as a natural variation of human identity?

Definitely being transgender is a mental illness
28.9%
Definitely being transgender is a natural variation of human identity
27.3%
Probably being transgender is a natural variation of human identity
17.1%
Probably being transgender is a mental illness
13.5%
Unsure
13.2%
Being transgender is a mental illness (total) 42.4%Being transgender is a natural variation of human identity (total) 44.4%

Wording notes: offers 'mental illness' as one of only two substantive characterizations, which presents a pathologizing frame as an ordinary side of a two-sided debate | the deck slide title uses 'Transgenderism', a coinage used almost exclusively by opponents | no 'neither' option; respondents who reject both framings can only answer Unsure

loaded_terms — the two offered characterizations are not symmetric alternatives - 'mental illness' is a clinical-pathology claim, 'natural variation of human identity' a descriptive one - and forcing a choice between them makes the pathologizing option the default half of a binary

Subgroup figures (26)

party

GroupBeing transgender is a mental illness (total)Being transgender is a natural variation of human identity (total)
Republican74%13%
Independent33%52%
Democrat13%74%

ideology

GroupBeing transgender is a mental illness (total)Being transgender is a natural variation of human identity (total)
Conservative73%15%
Moderate34%45%
Liberal8%86%

gender

GroupBeing transgender is a mental illness (total)Being transgender is a natural variation of human identity (total)
Women under 5533%55%
Women 55+40%43%
Men under 5548%40%
Men 55+50%38%

2024_vote

GroupBeing transgender is a mental illness (total)Being transgender is a natural variation of human identity (total)
Trump '24 voters75%14%
Harris '24 voters12%75%

other

GroupBeing transgender is a mental illness (total)Being transgender is a natural variation of human identity (total)
Swing voters41%38%

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →