Data for Progress

Do you personally know someone who identifies as transgender or nonbinary?

Wording notes: combines transgender and nonbinary into one category

neutral — factual contact item

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today.

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today. - Percentage of adults who identify as transgender or nonbinary

Wording notes: innumeracy item - mean estimates are known to be inflated

neutral — open numeric estimate with no anchoring cue

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today.

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today. - Percentage of young people (ages 30 and under) who identify as transgender or nonbinary

Wording notes: innumeracy item

neutral — open numeric estimate

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today.

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today. - Percentage of transgender adults who regret having pursued gender altering medication and surgery

Wording notes: uses 'gender altering medication and surgery' rather than clinical terminology

loaded_terms — 'gender altering' is not the clinical or self-descriptive term; the item measures a misperception the pollster expects to be inflated

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups?

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups? - Heterosexual families

Wording notes: adopts the 'threat' frame of opponents in order to measure its uptake

loaded_terms — 'threat' is the opponents' framing and is used as the only offered construct; there is no counter-frame, though the item is clearly designed to show the frame failing

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups?

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups? - Children

Wording notes: adopts the 'threat to children' frame of opponents

loaded_terms — 'threat' framing with no counter-frame offered

This question was only shown to respondents who indicated they identified as Democrats, or as Independent or third party supporters who said they typically leaned more toward Democrats.

Should the Democratic Party be doing more to protect the rights of transgender and queer Americans from anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, or is the Democratic Party already doing enough to protect the rights of transgender and queer Americans?

Wording notes: Democrats and Democratic leaners only | 'already doing enough' is the only alternative to 'more' - 'doing too much' is not offered

tilts_affirming — the response set omits a 'doing too much' option, so respondents who think the party overemphasizes the issue have no home

When thinking about the right of transgender adults to pursue surgeries which change their appearance and body, which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

Wording notes: affirming option concedes 'procedures they could regret' | restrictive option is stated in explicitly traditionalist 'natural order' terms rather than a medical or safety rationale

tilts_affirming — the restrictive alternative is framed in the least sympathetic available terms ('natural order to things'), which is likely to depress it relative to a medical-risk framing

When thinking about the existence of transgender identities, which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

Wording notes: restrictive option uses 'woke culture' and an explicit intent-to-harm claim | asymmetric intensity between the two options

tilts_affirming — the restrictive alternative attributes malicious intent ('invented in order to harm our children'), an extreme version most skeptics would not endorse, so the affirming share is likely inflated relative to a neutral pairing

There are currently 429 bills passing through state legislatures aimed at limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America.

There are currently 429 bills passing through state legislatures aimed at limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America. Which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

Wording notes: numeric preamble (429 bills) supplies an anchor | no 'not enough legislation' option

tilts_affirming — the count preamble emphasizes volume, and the restrictive option is capped at 'the right amount' with no way to say more legislation is needed

This question was only shown to respondents who indicated they identified as Democrats, or as Independent or third party supporters who said they typically leaned more toward Democrats.

There are currently 429 bills passing through state legislatures aimed at limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America. In Nebraska, State Senator Machaela Cavanaugh has been filibustering for four weeks to prevent the state legislature from considering bills that would ban doctors from providing gender-affirming medical care to minors, stating the following explanation: "We were not sent here to legislate hate. We were sent here to do the business of the state, which is tax policy, and budgets; there's so much work to be done to address the economic crisis that we are all in in this country." Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who filibusters anti-LGBTQ+ bills to prevent their passage?

Wording notes: long sympathetic preamble quoting the legislator | Democrats and Democratic leaners only

tilts_affirming — the item quotes the legislator's own justification at length before asking, which primes the affirming answer