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Data for Progress
Data for Progress survey on transgender issues and 2024 campaign advertising · Oct 18–21, 2024 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Data for Progress advocacy_left
- Sponsor
- Data for Progress
- Fielded
- Oct 18–21, 2024
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 1,216
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- not disclosed
- Mode
- online web panel
- Margin of error
- +/- 3 percentage points
- Weighting
- weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.
Sources
Verification note. Full crosstab PDF retrieved and text-extracted. Question wording, response options, topline and party columns copied directly from the Data for Progress tabs (items 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8). Methodology paragraph transcribed verbatim from page 1 of the tabs. Note the sponsor is an advocacy organization on the affirming side; wording in items 4 and 9 is explicitly persuasion-tested rather than neutral, and is flagged item by item. || Full crosstab PDF read directly; all five pages of toplines and party breaks transcribed.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (11)
whether both parties should spend less time on transgender issues
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Both Democrats and Republicans should spend less time talking about transgender issues and more time talking about voters' priority issues like the economy and inflation
Wording notes: double-barreled - pairs 'less on trans issues' with 'more on the economy and inflation'
double_barreled — the statement joins a de-emphasis claim to an economy-focus claim that nearly everyone endorses, inflating agreement
Subgroup figures (9)
reaction to anti-trans political attack ads
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Political attack ads against the transgender community have gotten mean-spirited and out of hand
Wording notes: 'mean-spirited and out of hand' is the pollster's characterization embedded in the stimulus
tilts_affirming — the statement supplies its own pejorative judgment of the ads and is asked right after a dignity-norm item, which primes agreement
Subgroup figures (7)
party trusted to handle transgender issues
Which party do you trust more to handle issues related to transgender people?
The Democratic Party
52%
The Republican Party
29%
Neither
19%
Wording notes: 'Neither' offered but no 'both equally'
neutral — standard two-party trust item
Subgroup figures (9)
Party & candidate handlingforced choice
which party has a more extreme stance on transgender issues - the direct 'gone too far' comparison between the parties
Which party do you think has a more extreme stance on issues related to transgender people?
The Republican Party has a more extreme stance
45%
The Democratic Party has a more extreme stance
40%
Neither
14%
Wording notes: forces a comparative judgment of extremity rather than measuring each party separately | 'extreme' is a negatively valenced term applied symmetrically
neutral — Symmetric two-party construction with 'neither' available. The comparative format means the result cannot show both parties as extreme, which is a real limitation - but the near-even split (45% Republican, 40% Democratic) is directly on point for the 'which party has gone too far' question in this sweep.
Subgroup figures (8)
candidate preference on transgender rights
Which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?
Government should stay out of people's private lives
57%
A candidate who supports transgender rights
52%
Need new laws restricting transgender health care and keeping "biological boys" out of girls' sports
34%
A candidate who opposes transgender rights
31%
Don't know
18%
Wording notes: abstract 'rights' framing without specifying any policy
tilts_affirming — an unspecified 'transgender rights' frame is more popular than any concrete policy; opposing 'rights' in the abstract is a costly position to endorse
Subgroup figures (14)
Political salienceforced choice
candidate preference restated in concrete policy language, including the 'biological boys in girls' sports' formulation used in 2024 Republican advertising
Which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? [A candidate who says that we need new laws that restrict access to transgender health care and keep "biological boys" out of girls' sports / A candidate who says that the government should stay out of people's private lives and that there is too much legislation targeting a small minority of the population]
Government should stay out of people's private lives / too much legislation targeting a small minority
57%
New laws restricting transgender health care and keeping "biological boys" out of girls' sports
34%
Don't know
9%
Wording notes: both options are double-barreled - each bundles two distinct claims | the restrictive option uses the advertising phrase 'biological boys', in scare quotes in the original | the affirming option is framed in small-government/libertarian language rather than in trans-rights language, which is itself the persuasion hypothesis being tested | the two options are not matched in emotional register: one names a concrete threat, the other an abstract principle plus a sympathy appeal
double_barreled — Both alternatives combine two claims, so neither share is attributable to a single proposition. The design is transparently a message test rather than an opinion measurement: DFP wanted to show that a privacy/anti-overreach frame beats the 2024 Republican ad frame. Read as a message test it is informative; read as public opinion it is not.
Subgroup figures (5)
Party & candidate handlingforced choice
whether government should be more or less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do
Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [The government should be more involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive / The government should be less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive]
Government should be less involved
58%
Government should be more involved
31%
Don't know
11%
Wording notes: the two options are exactly parallel apart from more/less, which is unusually clean | 'regulating what transgender people are allowed to do' is a broad framing that may read as restrictive regardless of the respondent's policy views
neutral — Genuinely symmetric wording with matched clauses on both sides and an explicit 'even if neither is exactly right' hedge. Notably, 45% of Republicans chose 'less involved' - a result that would be hard to obtain from a loaded item.
Subgroup figures (6)
government involvement in regulating transgender people and their health care
Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right?
Government should be less involved
58%
Government should be more involved
31%
Don't know
11%
Wording notes: 'regulating what transgender people are allowed to do' is a broad framing that may read as more intrusive than specific policies
tilts_affirming — the shared stem describes restriction as government 'regulating what transgender people are allowed to do', which is a less sympathetic rendering than the child-protection framing restrictionists use
Subgroup figures (6)
transgender people deserve dignity and respect
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Transgender people deserve to be treated with dignity and respect
Wording notes: valence-loaded agree/disagree item with no counter-statement
tilts_affirming — a one-sided agree/disagree statement using near-universally endorsed values ('dignity and respect') invites acquiescence and measures a norm rather than a policy position
Subgroup figures (6)
judgment of Republican anti-LGBTQ+ campaign rhetoric
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Republican candidates using anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric as part of their campaigns is sad and shameful
Wording notes: 'sad and shameful' is a strong evaluative label supplied by the pollster | names only one party
loaded_terms — the statement embeds a pejorative verdict and attributes it to one party only; this is message-testing language rather than neutral measurement
Subgroup figures (4)
volume of anti-trans state legislation in 2024
Since the start of 2024, more than 500 bills aimed at limiting the rights of transgender people have been introduced in state legislatures across the country.
Since the start of 2024, more than 500 bills aimed at limiting the rights of transgender people have been introduced in state legislatures across the country. Which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?
This is too much legislation / political theater
55%
This is the right amount of legislation / real danger
31%
Don't know
13%
Wording notes: numeric preamble (500+ bills) | no 'not enough legislation' option
tilts_affirming — same asymmetric option set as the 2023 version; the ceiling on the restrictive side is 'right amount'
Subgroup figures (6)