online opt-in
Data for Progress
Data for Progress: The Swing Voters of the 2026 Midterms (pooled surveys) · May 15, 2026 – Jun 21, 2026 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Data for Progress advocacy_left
- Sponsor
- Data for Progress
- Fielded
- May 15, 2026 – Jun 21, 2026
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 5,809
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Mode
- online
- Margin of error
- +/-3 (full sample); higher for subgroups
- Weighting
- Weighted by age, gender, education, race, geography and recalled 2024 presidential vote.
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- Pooled across five surveys fielded May 15-June 21, 2026 (weighted N=5,809). 'Swing voters' (weighted N=447) are identified by Data for Progress's own scoring. The item is one of 16 options in a 'select up to three' battery (topline item [34]).
Sources
Verification note. Wording and figures from Data for Progress's own topline PDF. Fielded before the audit window; in scope by its July 9, 2026 release. Two 'LGBTQ+ issues' items in the same dataset never name transgender people or gender identity and are left out.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (1)
Political saliencemultiple response
a ban on transgender women in women's sports as a reason to vote for a Democrat (select up to three)
Which of these policies would make you definitely vote for a Democratic candidate in an upcoming election? Please select up to three options.
Ban transgender women from playing women's sports
10%
Wording notes: select up to three | tests the policy as a reason to vote for Democrats, not the respondent's view of it | only the restrictive direction of the policy is offered
neutral — The policy is stated plainly; the design measures vote-moving power, not opinion on the policy itself.
Subgroup figures (1)