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Elon University Poll
Elon University Poll, September 2016 · Sep 12–16, 2016 · US: North Carolina
Methodology
- Pollster
- Elon University Poll academic
- Sponsor
- Elon University
- Fielded
- Sep 12–16, 2016
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 644
- Sample frame
- unknown
- Mode
- telephone - live interviewer, cell phone and landline, CATI; each number dialed manually by a human interviewer per FCC rules; up to three attempts per working number
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.86
- Weighting
- iterative proportional fitting (raking) on age, race, sex and registered party identification
- Geography
- US: North Carolina
- Base notes
- 799 registered voters interviewed; 644 classified as likely voters and reported. HB2 follow-up items asked only of the 614-615 respondents who had heard of HB2.
Sources
Verification note. Question wording, toplines, methodology page and party crosstabs all read directly from the Elon Poll full report PDF (text extracted locally). || Wording, toplines and party breaks read from the Elon Poll archive page. || Toplines and party breaks read from the Elon University Poll release page for the September 2016 poll.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (7)
awareness of HB2
North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?
Yes
95.4%
No
4%
Don't Know
0.6%
Wording notes: adopts the opponents' nickname 'the Bathroom Bill' as part of the introduction
neutral — a pure awareness screen; 'Bathroom Bill' was the near-universal shorthand in NC media at the time and is offered here as an alternative name rather than as a characterization
support for North Carolina HB2
North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?
[If yes to House Bill 2 Intro] Do you support or oppose HB2?
Wording notes: names only the bill number, relying on the preamble for content | no substantive description of what HB2 does
neutral — symmetric support/oppose with volunteered middle and don't-know categories; because the law's content is never described, the result measures reaction to the label as much as to the policy
Subgroup figures (39)
party
ideology
gender
age
race
education
other
Party & candidate handlingforced choice
Gov. Pat McCrory's handling of HB2 and vote intention
North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?
[If yes to House Bill 2 Intro] Has Governor Pat McCrory's handling of HB2 made you more or less likely to vote to re-elect him as governor?
Less likely
36.2%
No difference
34.6%
More likely
26.9%
Don't Know (don't read)
2.1%
Refused (don't read)
0.2%
Wording notes: 'no difference' is offered as an explicit alternative rather than volunteered
neutral — balanced more/less construction with an explicit no-difference option
perceived effect of HB2 on North Carolina's national reputation
North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?
[If yes to House Bill 2 Intro] Regardless of what you think about HB2 itself, do you think the national reputation of North Carolina is better, worse, or about the same since HB2 was passed?
Worse
59.9%
About the same
23.1%
Better
11.4%
Don't Know (don't read)
5.1%
Refused (don't read)
0.5%
Wording notes: explicitly instructs respondents to set aside their own view of the law
neutral — all three directions offered with an explicit instruction to separate the reputational judgment from the policy judgment
support/oppose HB2 by name, no description
Do you support or oppose HB2?
Wording notes: names the bill only ('HB2') with no description of its contents | the word 'transgender' does not appear in the item | allows a 'neither' response
neutral — bare bill-name item; neutrality comes at the cost of assuming respondent knowledge of the law's contents
Subgroup figures (6)
Bathrooms & facilitiesother
perceived effect of HB2 on North Carolina's national reputation
Regardless of what you think about HB2 itself, do you think the national reputation of North Carolina is better, worse, or about the same since HB2 passed?
Worse
59.9%
About the same
23.1%
Better
11.4%
Don't know
5.1%
Wording notes: explicitly separates reputational effect from support for the law | middle option offered
neutral — symmetric better/worse/same with an explicit instruction to set aside one's own view of the law
Political salienceother
effect of the governor's handling of HB2 on vote choice
Has Gov. Pat McCrory's handling of HB2 made you more or less likely to vote to re-elect him as governor?
Less likely
36.2%
No difference
34.6%
More likely
26.9%
Don't know
2.1%
Wording notes: ties the bathroom law directly to vote choice | middle 'no difference' option offered
neutral — symmetric more/less likely with a no-difference option