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Elon University Poll

Elon University Poll, September 2016 · Sep 12–16, 2016 · US: North Carolina

Methodology

Pollster
Elon University Poll academic
Sponsor
Elon University
Fielded
Sep 12–16, 2016
Population
likely voters
Sample size
644
Sample frame
unknown
Mode
telephone - live interviewer, cell phone and landline, CATI; each number dialed manually by a human interviewer per FCC rules; up to three attempts per working number
Margin of error
+/- 3.86
Weighting
iterative proportional fitting (raking) on age, race, sex and registered party identification
Geography
US: North Carolina
Base notes
799 registered voters interviewed; 644 classified as likely voters and reported. HB2 follow-up items asked only of the 614-615 respondents who had heard of HB2.

Sources

Verification note. Question wording, toplines, methodology page and party crosstabs all read directly from the Elon Poll full report PDF (text extracted locally). || Wording, toplines and party breaks read from the Elon Poll archive page. || Toplines and party breaks read from the Elon University Poll release page for the September 2016 poll.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (7)

Political salienceotherin a trend series
awareness of HB2

North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?

Yes
95.4%
No
4%
Don't Know
0.6%

Wording notes: adopts the opponents' nickname 'the Bathroom Bill' as part of the introduction

neutral — a pure awareness screen; 'Bathroom Bill' was the near-universal shorthand in NC media at the time and is offered here as an alternative name rather than as a characterization

Bathrooms & facilitiessupport/opposein a trend series
support for North Carolina HB2

North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?

[If yes to House Bill 2 Intro] Do you support or oppose HB2?

Support 40%50% Oppose

Wording notes: names only the bill number, relying on the preamble for content | no substantive description of what HB2 does

neutral — symmetric support/oppose with volunteered middle and don't-know categories; because the law's content is never described, the result measures reaction to the label as much as to the policy

Subgroup figures (39)

party

GroupSupportOpposeNeither / Don't Know
Democrats23%67%11%
Independents42%48%10%
Republicans58%31%11%

ideology

GroupSupportOppose
Conservative61%29%
Moderate32%55%
Liberal17%78%

gender

GroupSupportOppose
Male44%45%
Female36%54%

age

GroupSupportOppose
18-4028%56%
41-6540%50%
66+43%49%

race

GroupSupportOppose
White43%48%
Black22%61%

education

GroupSupportOppose
Graduate School21%70%
College Graduate35%52%
High School / GED57%35%

other

GroupSupportOppose
Trump voters65%26%
Clinton voters16%74%
Party & candidate handlingforced choice
Gov. Pat McCrory's handling of HB2 and vote intention

North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?

[If yes to House Bill 2 Intro] Has Governor Pat McCrory's handling of HB2 made you more or less likely to vote to re-elect him as governor?

Less likely
36.2%
No difference
34.6%
More likely
26.9%
Don't Know (don't read)
2.1%
Refused (don't read)
0.2%

Wording notes: 'no difference' is offered as an explicit alternative rather than volunteered

neutral — balanced more/less construction with an explicit no-difference option

Political salienceforced choicein a trend series
perceived effect of HB2 on North Carolina's national reputation

North Carolina recently enacted a law called House Bill 2. It is also known as the Bathroom Bill or HB2. Have you heard anything about HB2?

[If yes to House Bill 2 Intro] Regardless of what you think about HB2 itself, do you think the national reputation of North Carolina is better, worse, or about the same since HB2 was passed?

Worse
59.9%
About the same
23.1%
Better
11.4%
Don't Know (don't read)
5.1%
Refused (don't read)
0.5%

Wording notes: explicitly instructs respondents to set aside their own view of the law

neutral — all three directions offered with an explicit instruction to separate the reputational judgment from the policy judgment

Bathrooms & facilitiessupport/opposein a trend series
support/oppose HB2 by name, no description

Do you support or oppose HB2?

Support 40%50% Oppose

Wording notes: names the bill only ('HB2') with no description of its contents | the word 'transgender' does not appear in the item | allows a 'neither' response

neutral — bare bill-name item; neutrality comes at the cost of assuming respondent knowledge of the law's contents

Subgroup figures (6)

party

GroupSupportOppose
Republicans58%31%
Democrats23%67%
Independents42%48%
Bathrooms & facilitiesother
perceived effect of HB2 on North Carolina's national reputation

Regardless of what you think about HB2 itself, do you think the national reputation of North Carolina is better, worse, or about the same since HB2 passed?

Worse
59.9%
About the same
23.1%
Better
11.4%
Don't know
5.1%

Wording notes: explicitly separates reputational effect from support for the law | middle option offered

neutral — symmetric better/worse/same with an explicit instruction to set aside one's own view of the law

Political salienceother
effect of the governor's handling of HB2 on vote choice

Has Gov. Pat McCrory's handling of HB2 made you more or less likely to vote to re-elect him as governor?

Less likely
36.2%
No difference
34.6%
More likely
26.9%
Don't know
2.1%

Wording notes: ties the bathroom law directly to vote choice | middle 'no difference' option offered

neutral — symmetric more/less likely with a no-difference option

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →