probability panel

Gallup

Gallup Panel gender-identity measurement experiment (Phases 2 and 3) · Apr 3–13, 2023 · US national

Methodology

Pollster: Gallup independent
Sponsor: Gallup
Fielded: Apr 3–13, 2023
Population: adults
Sample size: 22,882
Sample frame: probability panel
Panel: Gallup Panel
Mode: self-administered web survey of Gallup Panel members
Margin of error: ±1.3 percentage points per experimental group
Weighting: weighted to national demographic targets; Gallup Panel recruited by probability-based random sampling
Geography: US national
Base notes: four randomized experimental groups of roughly 5,700 each

Sources

Verification note. One fielding reported across two Gallup methodology articles: Phase 2 (2023-08-22) on gender-term wording and Phase 3 (2023-12-14) on transgender measurement specifically. Wordings and percentages read from both. Gallup reports the transgender estimate varies from 0.2% to 1.1% depending purely on question construction - the single most important methodological finding in this whole sweep.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (2)

Identity beliefsotherin a trend series

two-step measure, National Academies style, single selection (experimental version 3)

What sex were you assigned at birth, on your original birth certificate? / What is your current gender?

Transgender (current gender)

0.2%

Two-spirit

0.1%

Wording notes: single selection only - a trans woman must choose between 'Female' and 'Transgender' | 'Two-spirit' offered to all respondents rather than only to Indigenous respondents

unclear — forcing a single selection between a binary gender and 'transgender' structurally depresses the transgender count; Gallup measured 0.2% here versus 0.6% with the confirmation follow-up in version 4

Identity beliefsmultiple responsein a trend series

two-step measure, select-all, with trans confirmation follow-up (experimental version 4)

What sex were you assigned at birth, on your original birth certificate? / Which one of the following best describes your gender? You may select all that apply.

Nonbinary

Trans identity confirmed via follow-up item

0.6%

Trans or transgender (selected directly)

0.3%

Wording notes: select-all permits 'Woman' and 'Trans or transgender' together | a follow-up confirmation item was asked selectively of respondents whose sex at birth and gender did not match

neutral — the most permissive construction Gallup tested; it yielded 0.3% selecting the trans option directly, and 0.6% of all respondents once the confirmation follow-up was counted - 44.3% of those asked the follow-up confirmed a trans identity

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →