probability RDD
Gallup
Gallup Poll Social Series: Values and Beliefs (May 2025) -- transgender battery split across Form A and Form B · May 2025 – May 18, 2025 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Gallup independent
- Sponsor
- Gallup
- Fielded
- May 2025 – May 18, 2025
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 1,003
- Sample frame
- probability RDD
- Mode
- telephone -- live interviewer, dual-frame landline and cellphone RDD, minimum quota of 80% cellphone and 20% landline, Spanish-language interviewing available
- Margin of error
- +/- 4 percentage points on the full sample of 1,003; +/- 5 percentage points on each half sample (Form A n=502, Form B n=501)
- Weighting
- weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, non-response and double coverage of landline and cell users, and to match national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density and phone status; phone-status targets from the National Health Interview Survey, population-density targets from the 2020 census; all reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- The four born-with/policy items were divided between two random half samples rather than asked of everyone. Form A (n=502) received question 40 (cause of being gay or lesbian) and question 42 (transgender athletes); Form B (n=501) received question 41 (cause of being transgender) and question 43 (government documents). Gallup states the margin of sampling error on each half sample is +/- 5 percentage points, against +/- 4 on the full sample, and marks every affected row in the topline with the footnote '^ Asked of a half sample'. Only the morality item (question 21V) was asked of the full 1,003.
Sources
Verification note. Totals and Survey Methods read from the Gallup release. Gallup's chart tables are JS embeds and could not be read directly, so party rows for the sports and morality items were cross-checked against The Hill's and the AP's write-ups of the same release, which report identical figures. Government-documents party rows other than the Democratic 54% could not be confirmed from Gallup's own text and are omitted. || Emitted because the database's existing May 2025 Gallup record does not record that these are HALF-SAMPLE estimates -- a material fact for trend reading, since the 2021 and 2023 readings of the athlete item were full-sample. All wording, bases and toplines were read this session from Gallup's own final topline PDF (Princeton Job #25-05-006, 'GALLUP POLL SOCIAL SERIES: VALUES AND BELIEFS -- FINAL TOPLINE', May 1-18, 2025), downloaded and text-extracted. Subgroup percentages were reconstructed from the crosstab grid in the same PDF; the grid's column alignment is damaged by text extraction, so every reconstructed column was checked by summing its response categories to 99-101 before being recorded, and only columns that passed are included. The athlete-item toplines match Gallup's Datawrapper trend table UcfEw (2025 = 24/69/6, 2023 = 26/69/5, 2021 = 34/62/4), whose 2025 row carries the same half-sample caret; the documents item matches table G1ho1 (66/27/7). || toplines read from the Gallup release 'Two-Thirds in U.S. Prefer Birth Sex on IDs, in Athletics'. Gallup's literal question stem for the ID item was not printed on the retrieved page, so wording is the release's own description; party figures for Republicans are given by Gallup as approximately nine in ten and are recorded here only where a specific number was printed. || 24% gender-identity figure and Democratic (45%) and independent (23%) figures read from the Gallup release; the corresponding 'birth gender' total was not stated numerically on the page fetched, so it is omitted rather than derived. || CORRECTION - question wording and response labels; the 69/24 figures themselves are CONFIRMED. The DB stored this fielding's restrictive option as 'Only teams that match birth sex', which came from Gallup's 2025 headline and prose ('Two-Thirds in U.S. Prefer Birth Sex on IDs, in Athletics'; '...teams that match their birth sex'). Gallup's own release page still prints the item with the [ROTATED] alternative reading 'birth gender'. Gallup did NOT change the item wording in 2025 - only its narrative summary. So the 2021/2023/2025 trend IS like-for-like, and the DB's two question rows for this single item (q01 with 'birth sex' labels, verbatim=false; q06 with 'birth gender' labels, verbatim=false) should collapse into one record with verbatim=true. Only the two party figures Gallup printed in text this session are recorded.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (9)
trans athletes - birth sex vs current gender identity teams
Next, we have a question about policies for competitive sports that have separate teams for male and female athletes.
Next, we have a question about policies for competitive sports that have separate teams for male and female athletes. Do you think transgender athletes -- [ROTATED: should be able to play on sports teams that match their current gender identity (or) should only be allowed to play on sports teams that match their birth gender]?
Wording reconstructed from: Wording shown is Gallup's 2021 verbatim text. Gallup reports 2025 as the same trend, but its 2025 release and press coverage describe the option as 'birth sex' rather than 'birth gender', so the exact 2025 wording is unconfirmed.
Should only be allowed to play on teams that match their birth gender
69%
Should only be allowed to play on teams that match their birth gender
69%
Should only be allowed to play on teams that match their birth gender
62%
Should be able to play on teams that match their current gender identity
34%
Should be able to play on teams that match their current gender identity
26%
Should be able to play on teams that match their current gender identity
24%
No opinion
6%
No opinion
5%
No opinion
4%
Wording notes: uses 'birth gender'/'birth sex' | no middle option offered | does not distinguish level of sport
neutral — both alternatives stated and rotated
Subgroup figures (48)
party
gender
age
race
education
other
sex/gender marker on passports and driver's licenses
Whether a person's birth sex or their current gender identity should be listed on government documents such as passports or driver's licenses.
Wording reconstructed from: Paraphrase constructed from Gallup's narrative description in the 2025-06-10 release ('66% of Americans say a person's birth sex rather than gender identity should be listed on government documents such as passports or driver's licenses'). Gallup did not publish the item text on the page and the chart is a JS embed.
Birth sex should be listed
66%
Wording notes: first fielded 2025 - no trend | binary forced choice with no 'X'/nonbinary marker option
unclear — the literal wording is unavailable, so the framing cannot be assessed; the reported structure is a symmetric two-option choice
Subgroup figures (1)
moral acceptability of changing one's gender
Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong.
Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. -- Changing one's gender
Morally acceptable 40%54% Morally wrong
Wording notes: frames gender transition as a moral question | battery placement alongside transgressive behaviors
loaded_terms — moral-acceptability frame and battery placement; 'changing one's gender' implies a chosen act
Subgroup figures (3)
whether being transgender is innate or a product of upbringing/environment
In your view, is being transgender something a person is born with or due to factors such as upbringing and environment?
Upbringing and environment
50%
Born with it
30%
Both (vol.)
7%
Neither (vol.) or no opinion
11%
Wording notes: first fielded 2025 - no trend | binary born-with vs upbringing frame excludes accounts that are neither purely innate nor environmental | 'both' and 'neither' were volunteered rather than offered
neutral — symmetric two-option construction matching a 48-year-old Gallup trend item; the binary is reductive but not slanted toward either side
Subgroup figures (2)
whether being transgender is innate or environmental -- Form B half sample
In your view, is being transgender -- [ROTATED: something a person is born with, (or) due to factors such as upbringing and environment]?
Upbringing/environment
50%
Born with
30%
Both (vol.)
7%
Neither (vol.)
4%
No opinion
9%
Wording notes: asked of Form B only (n=501) | response alternatives rotated | parallels question 40, the same item about being gay or lesbian, which was put to the other half sample | volunteered 'both' and 'neither' are recorded but not read
neutral — Balanced two-sided forced choice with rotation and volunteered middle options recorded.
Subgroup figures (79)
party
gender
age
race
education
other
birth sex vs. gender identity on driver's licenses and passports -- Form B half sample, first asking
Next, when it comes to obtaining government documents such as driver's licenses or passports,
Next, when it comes to obtaining government documents such as driver's licenses or passports, do you think -- [ROTATED: people should be required to list their birth sex on the document (or) people should be able to list their gender identity instead of their birth sex if they differ]?
People should be required to list their birth sex
66%
People should be able to list their gender identity if they differ
27%
No opinion
7%
Wording notes: asked of Form B only (n=501) | response alternatives rotated | first and so far only asking -- Gallup's trend table for this item carries a single row | the affirming option is phrased as an exception conditional on the two differing ('if they differ')
neutral — Both alternatives are stated and rotated. The mild asymmetry is structural: the birth-sex option is a flat requirement while the gender-identity option is framed as a conditional permission, which makes the restrictive side the simpler sentence.
Subgroup figures (48)
party
gender
age
race
education
other
moral acceptability of changing one's gender -- full sample, the one item in the battery NOT split
Next, I'm going to read you a list of issues. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong.
Next, I'm going to read you a list of issues. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]? -- Changing one's gender
Morally wrong
55%
Morally wrong
54%
Morally wrong
51%
Morally wrong
51%
Morally acceptable
46%
Morally acceptable
44%
Morally acceptable
43%
Morally acceptable
40%
Depends on the situation (vol.)
2%
Not a moral issue (vol.)
1%
No opinion
2%
Wording notes: asked of the full sample, unlike the four policy items in the same wave | item order randomized within the morality battery | 'changing one's gender' is Gallup's own label and names no person or policy
neutral — Symmetric acceptable/wrong pair with the legality question explicitly bracketed off, which is what makes this a morality measure rather than a policy measure.
Subgroup figures (6)
birth sex vs. gender identity on passports and driver's licenses
Should a person's birth sex or their current gender identity be listed on government documents such as passports or driver's licenses?
Wording reconstructed from: Gallup's own description of the item in the June 2025 release ('a person's birth sex rather than gender identity should be listed on government documents such as passports or driver's licenses'); the literal stem was not printed on the page
Wording notes: uses 'birth sex' vs 'current gender identity' contrast | no middle option offered
neutral — both alternatives stated symmetrically; 'birth sex' is a contested term but is paired with 'current gender identity'
Subgroup figures (1)
trans athletes on teams matching birth sex
Do you think transgender athletes should be able to play only on sports teams that match their birth gender, or should they be able to play on sports teams that match their current gender identity?
Wording reconstructed from: Gallup trend item as described in the June 2025 release; literal stem not printed on the retrieved page
Only teams that match their birth gender
69%
Teams that match their current gender identity
24%
Wording notes: uses 'birth gender' | no middle option
neutral — both alternatives stated
Subgroup figures (3)