Equality Voters Stopped the Red Tide - HRC/GQR 2022 post-election survey · Nov 5–9, 2022 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Greenberg Quinlan Rosner partisan_d
- Sponsor
- Human Rights Campaign
- Commissioned by
- Human Rights Campaign
- Fielded
- Nov 5–9, 2022
- Population
- 2022 voters
- Sample size
- 1,000
- Sample frame
- unknown
- Mode
- multi-mode - half the surveys were conducted online and half on phones
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.10 points
- Weighting
- not disclosed
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- the project included oversamples in AZ, GA, MI, PA, NV and WI; the memo does not report their sizes or whether the oversamples are included in the 1,000
Sources
Verification note. Read directly from the three-page HRC/GQR memo dated 16 November 2022. This is an advocacy client memo, not a topline: it paraphrases its own vote-motivation question rather than printing it, and reports the two transgender items only as 'less than 5 percent' with no exact figure, so those percentages are recorded as null. The methodology footnote reads '1,000 2022 voters taken November 5-9, 2022' (the sentence in the PDF is garbled as 'a survey of 2022 1,000 2022 voters'). Weighting and sample frame are not disclosed anywhere in the memo. The memo's central claim - that anti-transgender campaigning did not move the 2022 general electorate - rests on this single unreleased item.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
issues that motivated 2022 midterm vote choice, including transgender youth care and trans sports
we asked voters which specific issues motivated them to vote this year
Wording reconstructed from: HRC/GQR post-election memo, 16 November 2022, page 3. The memo describes the item in narrative form; no topline or questionnaire was published, so the literal stem, the response list, and whether it was single- or multiple-response are all unknown.
Wording notes: wording not published | transgender items reported only as a ceiling ('less than 5 percent') | sponsor is an advocacy organization with a stake in the finding
unclear — The wording was never published, so the item cannot be assessed. A vote-motivation list is also structurally unfavourable to low-salience issues: respondents who voted partly on an issue but did not rank it first will not register.
U.S. House vote among modelled Equality Voters and self-identified LGBTQ+ voters
U.S. House vote among Equality Voters and among self-identified LGBTQ+ voters (wording not published)
Wording reconstructed from: HRC/GQR post-election memo, 16 November 2022, page 1; narrative description only
Wording notes: 'Equality Voters' is a modelled construct defined by HRC, not a self-reported identity | wording not published
unclear — The key subgroup is defined by an undisclosed model, so the 38 percent figure cannot be independently checked.
Subgroup figures (4)