HRHart Research Associates

Initially, voters lean toward transgender youth being able to participate in sports consistent with their gender identity - 38% say this, versus 34% who say these youth should have to participate in sports consistent with the gender they were assigned at birth; 28% do not have an opinion.

Wording reconstructed from: Hart Research memo to Interested Parties, 16 March 2021, p.4. Hart describes the two alternatives but does not print the literal item.

Wording notes: explicitly offers a no-opinion option, which nearly three in ten voters take

neutral — Both alternatives are stated in parallel with an explicit no-opinion escape, which is why this reads as a near-even split rather than a landslide in either direction.

respondents read that 'local schools, state athletic associations, and the NCAA have already implemented policies that ensure a level playing field for all students while also protecting transgender youth.'

Sports are important in young people's lives. Young transgender people should be allowed opportunities to participate in a way that is safe and comfortable for them.

Wording notes: preceded by a persuasive preamble asserting that a level playing field is already ensured | the statement opens with a consensus premise ('Sports are important in young people's lives') before the contested claim | 'in a way that is safe and comfortable for them' avoids specifying which team, which is the actual point of dispute

tilts_affirming — Three separate features push toward agreement: a preamble that pre-empts the fairness objection, an opening sentence almost nobody disagrees with, and a vague 'safe and comfortable' formulation that never asks whether trans girls should play on girls' teams. The 38-point swing from the unprimed item on the same respondents is the measurement of that effect.

there is a clear sense among the voting public that:

Transgender youth should be able to access medication that delays puberty if they have advice from their doctors and consent from their parents to do so

Wording notes: both a physician recommendation and parental consent are written into the item, which are the two conditions that most raise support | says 'medication that delays puberty' rather than 'puberty blockers'

tilts_affirming — Stipulating doctor's advice and parental consent removes the two objections that drive opposition in other polling on this topic; the same underlying policy asked without those conditions returns far lower support elsewhere. The 69% here is the ceiling of the question space, not a general measure of support for youth medical transition.

there is a clear sense among the voting public that:

Transgender people should be able to live freely and openly according to their gender identity / Transgender people should have equal access to medical care as other Americans

Wording notes: 'equal access to medical care as other Americans' does not name transition-related care

tilts_affirming — Both statements are abstract equality claims with no policy trade-off. The medical-care item in particular means only non-discrimination in ordinary care, not coverage of gender-affirming treatment, but is frequently cited as though it measured the latter.

Sixty-three percent (63%) recognize that transgender people face a lot or a fair amount of discrimination in the United States today - appreciably higher than the proportion who say this of women, LGB people, Black people, or Christians.

Wording reconstructed from: Hart Research memo to Interested Parties, 16 March 2021, pp.3-4. Hart's restatement of the item.

Wording notes: asked comparatively across several groups including Christians, which is unusual and useful for benchmarking

neutral — Standard perceived-discrimination battery with a symmetric four-point scale and multiple comparison groups.