Third Way / Impact Research national survey on transgender youth, April 2023 · Apr 6–13, 2023 · US national plus battleground congressional district oversample
Verification note. Percentages read directly from Third Way's June 2023 memo. Third Way publishes no topline, weighting statement, or margin of error for this poll, and the memo gives only the month-day field window without the year (April 6-13; the year is established by the June 2023 publication and the memo's own framing).
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
[Third Way describes the item as asking whether respondents had recently read or heard about transgender issues; 89% reported hearing 'a lot or some']
Wording reconstructed from: Third Way memo narrative; question wording not published
Wording notes: question wording not published
unclear — wording not published
[Third Way describes the item as asking about] a national policy protecting transgender people from discrimination
Wording reconstructed from: Third Way memo narrative; question wording not published
Wording notes: question wording not published
unclear — wording not published
[Three differently framed versions of the same policy, described by Third Way as:] (a) banning health care professionals from providing gender-affirming care to youth (b) whether the parents of a 15-year-old transgender child should be allowed to help their child receive gender-affirming care (c) banning parents from getting their child gender-affirming care
Wording reconstructed from: Third Way memo narrative; the memo describes each framing but does not reproduce the fielded wording
Wording notes: deliberate framing experiment: the actor being restricted is varied from clinicians to parents | the (b) version also introduces a specific age, so it is not a clean comparison - Third Way says so explicitly
unclear — the framings were designed to find the most favorable one for the client's messaging, and the results are reported as evidence for a recommended frame rather than as a measure of settled opinion; without the fielded wording the size of each effect cannot be independently assessed
| Group | Oppose the ban |
|---|---|
| Battleground congressional district voters - 'ban parents' framing | 53% |
[Two differently framed versions of the same policy, described by Third Way as:] (a) requiring transgender student-athletes to compete on teams that match their biological sex (b) a ban on transgender youth competing on teams that match their gender identity
Wording reconstructed from: Third Way memo narrative; fielded wording not published
Wording notes: 'require' vs. 'ban' framing of an identical policy
unclear — an intentional framing test; the 8-point gap it produced is the finding, but the fielded wording is not published so the effect cannot be independently checked
We also asked voters specifically about the House Republicans' "Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act," which would ban transgender people from playing on girls' sports teams at any age or level.
[Third Way describes the items as asking how much respondents were bothered by specific enforcement requirements associated with the House Republicans' "Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act"]
Wording reconstructed from: Third Way memo narrative; fielded wording not published
Wording notes: the enforcement mechanisms described (genital inspections, puberty questions, menstrual records) are the most alarming implications of the bill | no counterbalancing items about the bill's stated purpose
tilts_affirming — the battery presents only the enforcement consequences a critic would emphasize, with no items on the bill's stated fairness rationale; the near-identical 70-78% results across three items suggest a strong one-directional prompt
[Third Way describes the item as asking whether respondents are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports banning transgender student-athletes from participating in sports that align with their gender identity, or whether it has no impact]
Wording reconstructed from: Third Way memo narrative; fielded wording not published
Wording notes: the reported figure combines 'less likely' with 'no impact', which is a favorable way to present the result for the client
unclear — the published 54% figure is a combined 'less likely OR no impact' category rather than a single response option; that combination is a presentation choice by the sponsor, not a survey response
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