Transgender Polling Archive
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Ipsos

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters - State Poll: North Carolina · Oct 6–19, 2016 · US: North Carolina

Methodology

Pollster
Ipsos commercial
Sponsor
Thomson Reuters
Commissioned by
Reuters
Fielded
Oct 6–19, 2016
Population
adults
Sample size
2,132
Sample frame
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Mode
online
Margin of error
credibility interval (Ipsos states precision is measured using a credibility interval rather than a margin of error)
Geography
US: North Carolina
Base notes
2,132 total; 1,875 registered voters; 1,233 likely voters; 849 Democrats, 866 Republicans, 296 Independents. Party crosstabs published on the likely-voter base.

Sources

Verification note. Wording and all percentages read directly from the Ipsos topline deck PDF (slides 17 and 19). The deck is headed 'State Poll: NORTH CAROLINA' but describes the sample as '2,132 Americans'; the party crosstab columns are explicitly labelled likely voters (LV). Fielded during the HB2 fight and the McCrory-Cooper governor's race.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (2)

Bathrooms & facilitiesforced choicein a trend series
which public restroom transgender people should use

Which of the below statements comes closer to your opinion?

Biological sex on their birth certificate
58%
Gender with which they identify
34%
Don't know
8%

Wording notes: the stem itself is contentless - all substance sits in the two response options | each option carries a parenthetical concession ('regardless of...'), which is symmetric | uses 'biological sex on their birth certificate'

neutral — The two options are built in parallel, each with a matching 'regardless of' clause, so neither side gets an extra justification.

Subgroup figures (12)

party

GroupGender with which they identifyBiological sex on their birth certificateDon't know
Democrats (likely voters)54%38%8%
Republicans (likely voters)16%79%5%
Independents (likely voters)43%47%10%

other

GroupGender with which they identifyBiological sex on their birth certificateDon't know
Likely voters35%58%7%
Political salienceotherin a trend series
effect of HB2 and the boycott backlash on support for Governor Pat McCrory's re-election

This year, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory signed a law that removed certain protections to gay and transgender people. Since, national organizations have canceled a variety of events within the state, including concerts, conventions and college basketball tournaments to protest the law. How has the law, and the public response, affected your support for Gov. McCrory's re-election bid?

I'm less likely to support McCrory
36%
I'm more likely to support McCrory
32%
No change
25%
Don't know
7%

Wording notes: describes HB2 only as removing 'certain protections to gay and transgender people', without the restroom provision | foregrounds the boycott of concerts, conventions and basketball tournaments before asking about vote effect | self-reported vote-change items overstate movement

loaded_terms — The stem supplies only the economic-backlash consideration and no argument for the law, so respondents are cued toward the cost side before reporting a vote effect; the framing is one-sided even though the two vote directions are offered evenly.

Subgroup figures (16)

party

GroupI'm more likely to support McCroryI'm less likely to support McCroryNo changeDon't know
Democrats (likely voters)9%61%26%5%
Republicans (likely voters)58%13%26%3%
Independents (likely voters)18%57%24%2%

other

GroupI'm more likely to support McCroryI'm less likely to support McCroryNo changeDon't know
Likely voters32%38%26%4%

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →