Ipsos State Poll Conducted for Reuters: North Carolina · Oct 6–19, 2016 · US: North Carolina
Methodology
- Pollster
- Ipsos commercial
- Sponsor
- Thomson Reuters
- Commissioned by
- Thomson Reuters
- Fielded
- Oct 6–19, 2016
- Population
- adults; also reported for registered voters and likely voters
- Sample size
- 2,132
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- Ipsos online panel
- Mode
- online - self-administered web survey drawn from Ipsos's online panel; state-level poll fielded over a two-week window
- Margin of error
- Credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points for likely voters; Bayesian credibility interval adjusted using a standard weighting design effect of 1+L=1.3
- Weighting
- Weighted to the U.S. current population by gender, age, education and ethnicity
- Geography
- US: North Carolina
- Base notes
- 2,132 adults 18+, including 849 Democrats, 866 Republicans, 296 Independents, 1,875 registered voters and 1,233 likely voters. Results below are reported for All Adults and for Likely Voters; the party breaks shown are among likely voters.
Sources
Verification note. Full 23-page Ipsos slide-deck topline retrieved and text-extracted. This is the earliest in-scope Ipsos trans item located in this sweep and the only state-level one - fielded in North Carolina during the HB2 backlash and the McCrory/Cooper governor's race. CAVEAT ON GEOGRAPHY: the deck is titled 'State Poll: NORTH CAROLINA' and every substantive item is North Carolina-specific (NC governor, NC Senate, the McCrory HB2 question), but Ipsos's boilerplate summary page describes the sample only as '2,132 Americans' and the weighting statement references 'the U.S. current population' rather than North Carolina benchmarks. Recorded here as a North Carolina poll on the strength of the content; the boilerplate ambiguity is Ipsos's own and is not resolved.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
public restroom use by gender identity versus birth certificate sex
Which of the below statements comes closer to your opinion?
People should use public restrooms according to the biological sex on their birth certificate (regardless of how they appear or identify)
58%
People should use public restrooms according to the gender with which they identify (regardless of their biological sex)
34%
Don't know
8%
Wording notes: both options carry a parenthetical qualifier, so the construction is unusually symmetric for a 2016 bathroom item | the restrictive option's qualifier - 'regardless of how they appear or identify' - is arguably the more vivid of the two, since it makes explicit that a person who looks and lives as a woman would be sent to the men's room | 'biological sex on their birth certificate' conflates two different things: birth-assigned sex and the document, which in many states can be amended
neutral — This is a notably even-handed 2016 construction: each option gets a parallel parenthetical, the affirming option is listed first, and a 'don't know' is offered. If anything the restrictive option's qualifier spells out the practical consequence more concretely than the affirming one does. The 58/34 split among likely voters is therefore a reasonably clean read of North Carolina opinion at the height of the HB2 fight.
Subgroup figures (9)
effect of HB2 and the ensuing boycotts on support for Governor McCrory
This year, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory signed a law that removed certain protections to gay and transgender people. Since, national organizations have canceled a variety of events within the state, including concerts, conventions and college basketball tournaments to protest the law.
This year, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory signed a law that removed certain protections to gay and transgender people. Since, national organizations have canceled a variety of events within the state, including concerts, conventions and college basketball tournaments to protest the law. How has the law, and the public response, affected your support for Gov. McCrory's re-election bid?
I'm less likely to support McCrory
36%
I'm more likely to support McCrory
32%
No change
25%
Don't know
7%
Wording notes: long informational preamble that supplies facts many respondents would not otherwise hold - this is an informed-opinion item, not a top-of-head one | the preamble bundles the law and the economic backlash into a single stimulus, so the item cannot separate reaction to HB2 from reaction to the boycotts | describes HB2 accurately as removing protections rather than using the 'bathroom bill' shorthand
double_barreled — The stem is factually accurate and the response set is symmetric, but it asks about two things at once - the law itself and the boycott response to it - and a respondent who liked HB2 while resenting the NCAA pulling tournaments has no clean answer. The result is nonetheless historically important: it captured the net-negative political effect (38% less likely vs 32% more likely among likely voters) in a race McCrory went on to lose.
Subgroup figures (10)