online opt-in
Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos Large Issue Poll: Midterm Issues (wave of September 29-October 3, 2022) · Sep 29, 2022 – Oct 3, 2022 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Ipsos commercial
- Sponsor
- Thomson Reuters
- Commissioned by
- Thomson Reuters
- Fielded
- Sep 29, 2022 – Oct 3, 2022
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 4,415
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- Ipsos online panel plus partner panels and river sampling
- Mode
- online - self-administered web survey; sample randomly drawn from Ipsos's online panel, partner online panel sources, and 'river' sampling
- Margin of error
- Credibility interval of +/- 1.8 percentage points for all respondents
- Weighting
- Raking-ratio calibration to U.S. population targets; post-hoc weights on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region and education
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- Party composition across all three waves was stable at 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 21% Independent, 8% None/DK. The published trend tables give Total columns per wave; party columns are published only for the party-identification item itself, not for the issue items.
Sources
Verification note. Extracted from the 26-page Reuters/Ipsos 'Midterm Issues Trend' topline released 1 November 2022, which publishes three separate fieldings side by side. Per the one-record-per-fielding rule this record covers the September 29-October 3, 2022 wave; the other two waves are recorded as separate poll records sharing the same trend_series ids. All three waves used identical wording and had a credibility interval of +/- 1.8 points. FRAME CAUTION: online opt-in / river sample.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (3)
share naming gay and transgender issues as the single most influential midterm issue
What is the issue that will most influence your choice of political candidate in the upcoming November midterm elections?
Inflation/rising prices
27%
The U.S. economy
17%
The end of national abortion rights
8%
Gay and transgender issues
2%
Parents' voice in public school curriculum
1%
Wording notes: closed list with a single choice, so it measures relative priority against thirteen competing issues rather than absolute concern | bundles gay and transgender issues into one option, so trans salience cannot be isolated | 'Parents' voice in public school curriculum' is listed separately, which siphons off some respondents who might otherwise pick the gay/trans option
neutral — Standard single-choice most-important-issue format. Because it forces a single pick against a long list, it is the strictest available test of salience - and it returns 2% for gay and transgender issues, unchanged across all three 2022 waves while inflation ran 26-29%. Read alongside the same pollster's rating-scale salience items, which return 55-61% 'important', it shows how much apparent salience is an artifact of letting respondents rate every issue rather than choose among them.
vote effect of a candidate supporting laws preventing medical treatment for trans minors
In the upcoming elections this November, are you more or less likely to support a candidate who does the following?
In the upcoming elections this November, are you more or less likely to support a candidate who does the following? - Supports laws that prevent transgender children under the age of 18 from getting medical treatment related to gender identity and gender transitioning
Much more likely
27%
Much less likely
27%
Somewhat more likely
24%
Somewhat less likely
23%
Total More Likely 50%Total Less Likely 50%
Wording notes: no neutral or 'no difference' option - every respondent is forced to a side, which mechanically manufactures a 50/50 split on an issue most say does not drive their vote | restrictive polarity: 'more likely' means rewarding a candidate who backs the ban | the same questionnaire's most-important-issue item shows only 2% name gay and transgender issues at all
unclear — The policy description is accurate and non-pejorative, but the absent midpoint makes the headline number close to meaningless as a measure of electoral effect: the result is a dead-even 50/50 in all three waves, which is exactly what you would expect when indifferent respondents are randomly distributed across a forced choice. Recorded because the stability across waves is itself informative and because the item is widely cited.
vote effect of a candidate supporting school book bans on sex, sexual orientation and gender identity
In the upcoming elections this November, are you more or less likely to support a candidate who does the following?
In the upcoming elections this November, are you more or less likely to support a candidate who does the following? - Supports policies that ban books in schools and school libraries on subject matter that deals with sex, sexual orientation, and gender identity
Much less likely
38%
Somewhat less likely
24%
Somewhat more likely
19%
Much more likely
18%
Total More Likely 38%Total Less Likely 62%
Wording notes: no neutral option | bundles sex, sexual orientation and gender identity | 'ban books' is a strongly connotated phrase, though it is the standard descriptor for the policy
unclear — Same missing-midpoint problem as its battery-mates, and 'ban books' carries negative connotation that the trans-care item's wording does not. That asymmetry within a single battery is worth flagging: the book-ban item runs 37-38% more likely across the three waves while the trans-youth-care ban item runs 50%, and part of that 12-point gap may be the word 'ban books' rather than a genuine difference in policy preference.