online opt-in
Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos Poll: 2024 Primary and General Election / Issues Survey July 2023 (Large Sample) · Jul 11–17, 2023 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Ipsos commercial
- Sponsor
- Thomson Reuters
- Commissioned by
- Thomson Reuters
- Fielded
- Jul 11–17, 2023
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 4,414
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- Ipsos online panel plus partner panels and river sampling
- Mode
- online - self-administered web survey; sample randomly drawn from Ipsos's online panel, partner online panel sources, and 'river' sampling; does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense
- Margin of error
- Credibility interval of +/- 1.8 percentage points for all respondents; design-effect adjusted confidence interval +/- 3.3 points. Party CIs: Democrats +/- 2.7, Republicans +/- 3.0, independents +/- 5.3.
- Weighting
- Raking-ratio adjustment to U.S. population targets from the 2022 American Community Survey; post-hoc weights on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education AND political party affiliation. Note the addition of party weighting relative to the March 2023 fielding, which weighted on demographics only.
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- 2,044 Democrats, 1,640 Republicans, 508 independents.
Sources
Verification note. Full 17-page Reuters/Ipsos topline & methodology PDF retrieved and text-extracted. This fielding is notable for treating trans sports as a political-salience and party-competence object rather than only a policy-opinion object: it asks vote importance, which party has the best approach, and policy agreement on the same stimulus. FRAME CAUTION: online opt-in / river sample; credibility interval, not margin of error. Also note this fielding added party ID to the weighting scheme, so it is not perfectly comparable to March 2023.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (5)
importance of trans athletes in children's sports to vote choice
How important, if at all, will each of the following be in determining how you vote in the next election?
How important, if at all, will each of the following be in determining how you vote in the next election? - Transgender athletes participating in children's sports (elementary/high school)
Very important
31%
Somewhat important
24%
Not very important
16%
Not at all important
14%
Most important - only issue I really care about
6%
Not sure
10%
Total important 61%Total not important 29%
Wording notes: unusually well-specified stimulus - names the level of competition (elementary/high school), unlike most sports items | the scale includes a 'only issue I really care about' extreme, which lets genuine single-issue intensity be isolated | sits in a battery alongside 'Government or elite policies discriminating against white people', which places the trans item in an explicitly grievance-politics frame
neutral — The scale and stimulus are well constructed and the level of competition is specified. The battery context is worth flagging for research use - pairing trans sports with 'policies discriminating against white people' groups the item with racial-grievance content - but the item itself does not lead the respondent. Only 6% call it their most important issue while 61% call it important overall, which is the useful contrast.
Subgroup figures (7)
which party has the best approach to sex, sexuality and gender identity in public schools
And thinking about the same things, which party do you think has the best approach to these things?
And thinking about the same things, which party do you think has the best approach to these things? - Issues related to sex, sexuality, and gender identity being discussed in public schools
Democratic party
35%
Republican party
31%
Another party
5%
None
13%
Don't know
16%
Wording notes: 'None' and 'Don't know' both offered, together taken by 29% - a large bloc that trusts neither party | bundles sex, sexuality and gender identity
neutral — Standard party-competence construction with both parties named and genuine escape options. Democrats hold a narrow 35-31 edge on school gender content, which is a meaningfully different picture from the lopsided policy-opinion numbers on trans sports in the same fielding.
Subgroup figures (8)
which party has the best approach to trans athletes in children's sports
And thinking about the same things, which party do you think has the best approach to these things?
And thinking about the same things, which party do you think has the best approach to these things? - Transgender athletes participating in children's sports (elementary/high school)
Republican party
31%
Democratic party
30%
Another party
4%
None
17%
Don't know
18%
Wording notes: 35% choose 'None', 'Another party' or 'Don't know' - the largest such bloc in the battery
neutral — Neutral construction. The finding worth preserving is the mismatch: the public opposes trans girls' inclusion by wide margins in policy items, yet splits 30-31 on which party handles the issue better, with a third refusing to credit either. Restrictive policy preference is not translating into a partisan competence advantage.
Subgroup figures (8)
whether sex, sexuality and gender identity should be taught in grades 1-8
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - Issues related to sex, sexuality and gender identity should be taught in public schools, grades 1-8.
Total disagree
50%
Total agree
36%
Not sure
14%
Wording notes: grade band 1-8 stretches from six-year-olds to fourteen-year-olds - an enormous developmental range treated as one unit | bundles sex, sexuality and gender identity
double_barreled — Two separate collapses compound each other: three distinct subject matters are fused, and a grade band spanning first through eighth grade is treated as a single policy. NPR/Ipsos in 2022 showed the age split matters enormously (46% support for middle/high school), so an undifferentiated 1-8 item cannot be read as opposition to gender-identity content per se.
Subgroup figures (6)
transgender athletes in elementary and high school sports
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? - Transgender athletes should be able to participate in children's sports (elementary/high school)
Wording notes: does not specify the sex of the athlete or the category being entered - 'transgender athletes' generically, unlike the girls/boys mirror pair used in the TM2062Y21 battery | level of competition specified (elementary/high school), which is a strength
neutral — Neutral wording with an affirming polarity and a specified competition level. Its main limitation is generality: by not distinguishing trans girls from trans boys it produces a single 32%/52% figure that the same pollster's mirrored items show conceals a real gap. Note also the battery placement next to an anti-white-discrimination item.
Subgroup figures (9)