probability RDD
Marist Poll
Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll: Defining Gender · May 12–14, 2016 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Marist Poll academic
- Sponsor
- WGBH Boston, for the PBS series Point Taken
- Commissioned by
- WGBH Boston
- Fielded
- May 12–14, 2016
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 507
- Sample frame
- probability RDD
- Mode
- telephone - live interviewers, landline and cell phone, English only; landline numbers randomly selected from a list of telephone exchanges nationwide (ASDE Survey Sampler) with regions represented in proportion to population, respondent selected within household by first asking for the youngest male; combined with random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International
- Margin of error
- ±4.4 percentage points; the error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations
- Weighting
- the two samples were combined and balanced to the 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimates for age, gender, income, race and region
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- 86% of the sample were national registered voters; banner crosstabs are reported for adults
Sources
Verification note. Field dates, N, mode and MoE confirmed from the Marist release page, and all percentages below were retrieved from it, but the release page PARAPHRASES the item stems. The complete-survey-findings topline PDF was located and its URL recorded, but repeated fetches returned HTTP 429 rate limiting, so no item here is confirmed verbatim. This poll is a high-value re-verification target: it contains an apparent internal contradiction worth checking against the topline - 64% said transgender people should have equal rights in public restrooms while only 43% said transgender individuals should be allowed to choose the restroom matching their identity. || Question wording taken verbatim from the banner table headers; toplines and party/ideology crosstabs read from Banner 2 (re-extracted with word coordinates so each figure stays attached to its own row and column); methodology from the Banner 1 'How the Survey was Conducted' page. Fielded in the days immediately before the May 13, 2016 federal Dear Colleague letter on transgender students and released May 24. A dedicated seven-item transgender battery of this depth is unusual for 2016 and this poll appears in none of the standard aggregators consulted for this project. || RESOLVED on methodology and toplines; wording gap remains. The 'Complete Survey Findings' PDF was downloaded and its text extracted directly this session. It confirms the field dates of May 12-14 2016, n=507 adults residing in the contiguous United States, landline and mobile telephone interviewing in English with live interviewers, and 4.4 points with Marist's own note that the error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. Every percentage previously stored is confirmed, and the previously flagged apparent contradiction is REAL: 64 percent say transgender people should have equal rights in public restrooms while only 43 percent say transgender individuals should be allowed to choose the restroom they identify with, against 44 percent who say they should use the restroom matching the sex on their birth certificate. Two additional published figures not previously captured are added here (80 percent perceive greater acceptance than a decade ago; extensive age, gender, race, region and contact crosstabs). REMAINING GAP: this PDF is Marist's press release rather than a question-by-question topline, so the literal interviewer stems and response-option labels are still Marist's narrative phrasing; question_text_verbatim is false throughout. A future attempt should look for a separate Marist tables or 'Nature of the Sample' PDF in the same wp-content/misc/usapolls/us160512/ directory.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (21)
whether birth certificate sex is the only valid definition of gender
the sex listed on a person's birth certificate is the only way to define a person's gender [versus] that definition is outdated and needs to be updated to include a person's gender identity
Wording reconstructed from: Marist release page paraphrase; full stem is in the un-retrieved topline PDF
Birth certificate sex is the only way to define gender
45%
Definition is outdated and should include gender identity
41%
Wording notes: the affirming alternative is labelled by calling the opposing view 'outdated', which is an evaluative rather than descriptive contrast
loaded_terms — characterising one side of a forced choice as 'outdated and needs to be updated' loads that option positively for respondents who value modernity while simultaneously signalling that the other position is the traditional one - the alternatives are not stated in parallel terms
equal protection for transgender people in employment and housing
Should the transgender community receive equal protection in employment and housing?
Wording reconstructed from: Marist release page paraphrase; full stem is in the un-retrieved topline PDF
Wording notes: 'equal protection' framing produces near-ceiling support (90%)
tilts_affirming — 'equal protection' is a valence phrase almost nobody rejects in the abstract; the 90% result sits ~26 points above the same survey's concrete restroom-choice item
equal rights for transgender people in public restrooms
Should transgender people have equal rights in public restrooms?
Wording reconstructed from: Marist release page paraphrase; full stem is in the un-retrieved topline PDF
Wording notes: abstract 'equal rights' framing, contrasted within the same survey against a concrete choose-your-restroom item that scored 21 points lower
tilts_affirming — 'equal rights in public restrooms' does not specify which restroom, letting respondents assent without endorsing access to the facility matching gender identity; the gap against the concrete item in the same survey is the evidence
whether public restrooms should be sex-separated or gender neutral
public restrooms should be separated as male and female and should not be gender neutral [versus should be gender neutral]
Wording reconstructed from: Marist release page paraphrase; full stem is in the un-retrieved topline PDF
Should be separated as male and female
60%
Should be gender neutral
31%
Wording notes: conflates the separate questions of sex-segregation and transgender access
double_barreled — the restrictive option bundles two claims - that restrooms should be male/female separated AND that they should not be gender neutral - so agreement cannot be attributed to either proposition alone
allowing transgender people to choose the restroom matching their identity
Should transgender individuals be allowed to choose the public restroom with which they identify?
Wording reconstructed from: Marist release page paraphrase; full stem is in the un-retrieved topline PDF
Wording notes: 'allowed to choose' framing emphasises individual selection rather than matching an existing identity, which some respondents read as unconstrained
neutral — plainly stated access policy; the near-even 43/44 split against 64% on the abstract version in the same survey is a clean demonstration of abstraction effects rather than a defect of this item
knowing someone transgender or gender fluid
Do you know someone who is transgender or gender fluid?
Wording reconstructed from: Marist release page paraphrase; full stem is in the un-retrieved topline PDF
Wording notes: bundles transgender and gender fluid into one contact measure, so it is not directly comparable to transgender-only contact items
neutral — factual contact item
whether birth-certificate sex is the only way to define gender
Do you think defining gender as the sex listed on a person's original birth certificate: Is the only way to define male and female in society or Is out of date, and needs to be updated to include identity?
Is the only way to define male and female in society
45%
Is out of date, and needs to be updated to include identity
41%
Unsure
14%
Wording notes: labels the second alternative 'out of date', which imports a judgment into the option itself | 'original birth certificate' rules out amended documents
unclear — the alternatives are not symmetric: one is a plain descriptive statement while the other embeds the evaluative phrase 'is out of date, and needs to be updated', which can cut either way - it flatters change for respondents who like modernity and repels those who hear it as pressure
Subgroup figures (22)
party
ideology
gender
region
other
General acceptanceforced choice
perceived change in acceptance of transgender and gender fluid people over ten years
Today, some people describe themselves as transgender or gender fluid. Transgender refers to people who live out their gender in a way that does not match the sex noted on their birth certificate, or who physically change their sex. Gender fluid refers to those for whom gender identity varies.
Today, some people describe themselves as transgender or gender fluid. Transgender refers to people who live out their gender in a way that does not match the sex noted on their birth certificate, or who physically change their sex. Gender fluid refers to those for whom gender identity varies. Compared with ten years ago, do you think there is more acceptance or less acceptance of transgender or gender fluid people today?
More acceptance
80%
Less acceptance
10%
About the same
4%
Unsure
6%
Wording notes: supplies an explicit definition of transgender and gender fluid before the item | 'about the same' is available but not read as an offered alternative
neutral — a perception item with symmetric more/less alternatives; the definitional preamble is descriptive and evenhanded
Subgroup figures (3)
equal rights and protections in jobs and employment
Do you think transgender people should or should not have the same rights and protections as other Americans when it comes to each of the following: Jobs and employment?
Should
90%
Should not
6%
Unsure
4%
Wording notes: 'same rights and protections as other Americans' is an equality frame that draws near-universal agreement
tilts_affirming — the stem asks about equal treatment in the abstract rather than about any specific legal obligation, which is why it clears 90%; its analytic value here is the contrast with the restroom item in the same sequence, which drops 26 points on identical phrasing
Subgroup figures (6)
equal rights and protections in housing
Do you think transgender people should or should not have the same rights and protections as other Americans when it comes to each of the following: Housing?
Should
90%
Should not
5%
Unsure
5%
Wording notes: same equality frame as the employment item
tilts_affirming — as with the employment item, an abstract equal-treatment stem with no stated cost or conflict
Subgroup figures (3)
equal rights and protections in public restrooms
Do you think transgender people should or should not have the same rights and protections as other Americans when it comes to each of the following: Public restrooms?
Should
64%
Should not
27%
Unsure
9%
Wording notes: identical equality stem to the jobs and housing items, which makes the 26-point drop attributable to the domain rather than the wording
tilts_affirming — the equal-treatment stem is more affirming than a concrete policy question, and the same poll's direct restroom-choice item (B5) lands 21 points lower at 43% - a within-poll demonstration of how much the abstraction is worth
Subgroup figures (14)
whether transgender people may choose the restroom matching their identity
Do you think transgender or gender fluid people: Should be allowed to choose the public restroom with which they identify or Should be required to follow the sex on their birth certificate in using a public restroom?
Should be required to follow the sex on their birth certificate in using a public restroom
44%
Should be allowed to choose the public restroom with which they identify
43%
Unsure
12%
Wording notes: uses 'the sex on their birth certificate' rather than 'birth gender' or 'sex assigned at birth' | no middle option offered
neutral — the two policies are stated in parallel and each is described concretely; the birth-certificate formulation is more specific than the 'birth gender' phrasing Gallup used the same month and ties the answer to a document rather than to a contested concept
Subgroup figures (16)
party
ideology
gender
age
other
Bathrooms & facilitiesforced choice
sex-separated versus gender-neutral public restrooms
Which comes closer to your view: Public restrooms should be separated as male and female and not gender neutral or Public restrooms should be gender neutral and designed for anyone to use?
Public restrooms should be separated as male and female and not gender neutral
60%
Public restrooms should be gender neutral and designed for anyone to use
31%
Unsure
9%
Wording notes: asks about restroom architecture generally rather than about transgender access, so it measures a different object than the rest of the battery
neutral — two clearly stated alternatives; note that it does not mention transgender people at all, and is included here only because it sits inside a transgender battery and was fielded and reported as part of it
Subgroup figures (9)
personally knowing a transgender or gender fluid person
Do you personally know someone who is transgender or gender fluid?
Wording notes: broader than the CNN/ORC 'family member or close friend' formulation, which is why it returns a much higher rate (39% vs. 14%) in the same month
neutral — plain contact item; the 'personally know' phrasing casts a wider net than close-tie formulations and the gap between the two is itself informative
Subgroup figures (6)
whether birth-certificate sex is the only way to define gender
45% of Americans think the sex listed on a person's birth certificate is the only way to define a person's gender. 41% of residents, though, think that definition is outdated and needs to be updated to include a person's gender identity.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016; the questionnaire stem is not published
Birth certificate sex is the only way to define gender
45%
Definition is outdated and should be updated to include gender identity
41%
Wording notes: forced choice with no explicit middle option
neutral — both alternatives are stated affirmatively and at comparable length
Subgroup figures (11)
perceived change in acceptance of transgender and gender fluid people over the past decade
Despite the divide about how gender should be defined, most Americans, 80%, think greater acceptance of transgender and gender fluid people exists in today's society than a decade ago.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016
Greater acceptance exists today than a decade ago
80%
Wording notes: only the majority share is published; the complement is not reported
unclear — the release publishes a single share and no response-option list, so the item's construction cannot be assessed
equal protection in employment and housing
90% of U.S. residents also think the transgender community should receive the same rights and protections as other Americans when it comes to both employment and housing.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016
Should receive the same rights and protections
90%
Wording notes: bundles employment and housing into one item
double_barreled — employment and housing protections are combined in a single stem, so a respondent cannot separate them
equal rights for transgender people in public restrooms
While nearly two-thirds of residents, 64%, report transgender people should have equal rights in this area, 27% do not think they should receive equal protection under the law when it comes to public restrooms.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016
Should have equal rights in public restrooms
64%
Should not receive equal protection under the law in public restrooms
27%
Wording notes: abstract 'equal rights' framing rather than a concrete access rule
tilts_affirming — 'equal rights' and 'equal protection under the law' is an abstract rights framing; the same 507 respondents gave only 43 percent to the concrete version of the same policy
Subgroup figures (3)
whether public restrooms should be sex-separated or gender neutral
On the question of whether public restrooms should be gender neutral, six in ten Americans, 60%, think restrooms should be separated as male and female and should not be gender neutral. 31% say public bathrooms should be gender neutral for anyone to use.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016
Should be separated as male and female
60%
Should be gender neutral for anyone to use
31%
Wording notes: does not mention transgender people in the stem
neutral — both alternatives stated; the item is about facility design rather than about transgender access
Subgroup figures (6)
whether transgender people may choose the restroom matching their identity
Should transgender and gender fluid individuals be allowed to choose the public restroom with which they identify? Americans divide. 43% report individuals should be allowed to make that decision while 44% say transgender people should use the bathroom that correlates with the sex on his or her birth certificate.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016
Should use the bathroom matching the sex on their birth certificate
44%
Should be allowed to choose the restroom with which they identify
43%
Wording notes: concrete access rule stated on both sides
neutral — symmetric two-sided construction naming both the identity rule and the birth-certificate rule
Subgroup figures (7)
knowing a transgender or gender fluid person
Close to six in ten Americans, 59%, say they do not know someone who is transgender or gender fluid. A notable 39% of the American public say they do.
Wording reconstructed from: Marist/WGBH Point Taken press release narrative, May 24 2016
No
59%
Yes, know someone who is transgender or gender fluid
39%
Wording notes: combines 'transgender' and 'gender fluid' into one screen
neutral — simple contact screen with no evaluative content