probability panel

Marquette Law School Poll

Marquette Law School Poll national survey · May 20–26, 2026 · US national

Methodology

Pollster
Marquette Law School Poll academic
Sponsor
Marquette University Law School
Fielded
May 20–26, 2026
Population
adults
Sample size
1,001
Sample frame
probability panel
Panel
SSRS Opinion Panel
Mode
online probability panel (SSRS Opinion Panel, national probability sample)
Margin of error
±3.4 percentage points
Geography
US national

Sources

Verification note. Toplines read from Marquette's MLSPSC32 topline HTML; party breaks from the MLSPSC32 crosstab file ('party ID, leaners as partisans'). Democrat row on the sports item sums to 99 because of rounding. || Question preamble, toplines and party breaks read directly from the Marquette release. This is the correct home for the 63/37 constitutionality result that some secondary summaries misattribute to Marquette's July 2026 wave.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (2)

Youth medical carefavor/opposein a trend series
Chiles v. Salazar (decided March 31, 2026): favor/oppose the ruling against Colorado's conversion-therapy law

A Colorado law restricts mental health therapists from trying to change the gender identity or sexual orientation of clients under age 18, often called "conversion therapy." On March 31, the Supreme Court ruled that the law, as it applies to talk therapy, likely is an unconstitutional violation of the therapist's right to free speech under the First Amendment, and not a permissible regulation of medical practice. The Court sent the case back to a lower court for reconsideration under a more speech friendly standard, hinting that the Colorado law likely would be found unconstitutional. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Favor 51%48% Oppose

Wording notes: long, multi-clause preamble describing the holding, the remand, and the Court's hint about the likely outcome | the phrase 'hinting that the Colorado law likely would be found unconstitutional' editorializes about the Court's signal | describes the law as restricting therapists rather than as protecting minors

unclear — The description is legally detailed but long enough that comprehension is likely uneven, and it characterizes the Court's implied direction. Party results are nearly flat across Republicans and Democrats, which is consistent with respondents responding to procedural detail rather than to the underlying issue.

Subgroup figures (15)

party

GroupStrongly favorSomewhat favorSomewhat opposeStrongly opposeFavor the decisionOppose the decision
Republican30%27%22%21%——
Independent12%40%31%17%——
Democrat14%32%29%25%——
Republicans————57%—
Independents————52%—
Democrats—————54%
Sportsforced choicein a trend series
Little v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. (argued): how should the Court rule on state bans

The Supreme Court heard arguments in a case asking whether state laws that prohibit transgender girls and women from participating on girls' and women's sports teams violate the Constitution's equal protection clause. How do you think the Supreme Court should rule?

Rule that these state laws are constitutional
63%
Rule against these state laws as violations of the equal protection clause
37%
Web blank
0%

Wording notes: asks for a constitutional outcome rather than a policy preference | options are not linguistically parallel

neutral — Same asymmetry as earlier waves of this item.

Subgroup figures (12)

party

GroupRule that these state laws are constitutionalRule against these state laws as violations of the equal protection clauseWeb blankState laws should be upheld
Republican81%19%0%—
Independent53%47%0%—
Democrat49%50%0%—
Republicans———81%
Independents———53%
Democrats———49%

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →