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Morning Consult
Morning Consult/POLITICO National Tracking Poll · Jul 27–31, 2017 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Morning Consult commercial
- Sponsor
- Morning Consult / POLITICO
- Commissioned by
- POLITICO
- Fielded
- Jul 27–31, 2017
- Population
- registered voters
- Sample size
- —
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- Morning Consult
- Mode
- online
- Margin of error
- not retrieved
- Weighting
- not disclosed on the retrieved coverage
- Geography
- US national
Sources
Verification note. toplines and party breaks retrieved from search-result summary of the Morning Consult release; the Morning Consult page now returns HTTP 404 and the crosstab PDF was not retrieved, so field dates, sample size and margin of error are unconfirmed and question wording is a paraphrase || STILL UNRESOLVED, WITH THE ACCESS ROUTES NOW MAPPED. Three routes were tried this session and all failed. (1) morningconsult.com/2017/08/02/transgender-military-poll/ returns HTTP 404 to curl - the article is gone, not merely blocked. (2) The Wayback Machine HAS a capture (web.archive.org/web/20170910172624/https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/02/transgender-military-poll/, confirmed via the archive.org availability JSON API, which works fine), but web.archive.org itself is blocked to the fetch tool in this environment and returned HTTP 429 Too Many Requests to direct curl on every attempt across the whole session, with and without a browser user agent and with the id_ raw-content suffix. (3) The Morning Consult Intelligence platform now puts 2017-era crosstab PDFs behind a sign-in wall. The stored percentages (68 allow current servicemembers to stay, with 85 D / 69 I / 50 R; 55 continue to allow new enlistment, with 78 D / 54 I and 56 percent of Republicans saying no) therefore remain unverified search-summary figures. WHAT TO TRY NEXT, precisely: retry the Wayback capture URL above once archive.org's rate limit clears - the capture is confirmed to exist and returns status 200 in the availability API, so this is a rate-limit problem and not a missing-record problem. Field dates are set to a July 27-31 2017 window at month precision on the basis that the poll was fielded after Trump's July 26 tweets and released August 2; that window is inferred, not sourced.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (4)
whether currently serving transgender service members should be allowed to stay
Should transgender members currently serving in the armed forces be allowed to stay in the military, or not?
Wording reconstructed from: paraphrase from Morning Consult's own write-up ('transgender members currently serving in the armed forces should be allowed to stay on'); topline PDF not retrieved
Should be allowed to stay
68%
Wording notes: separates current servicemembers from new accessions - an unusually specific policy distinction
unclear — wording not verified against the pollster's topline
Subgroup figures (3)
whether new transgender members should be allowed to join
Should the military allow new transgender members to continue to join?
Wording reconstructed from: paraphrase from Morning Consult's own write-up; topline PDF not retrieved
Wording notes: accession-specific item; measurably lower support than the 'currently serving' item in the same poll
unclear — wording not verified against the pollster's topline
Subgroup figures (3)
whether currently serving transgender servicemembers should be allowed to stay
Should transgender members currently serving in the armed forces be allowed to stay on?
Wording reconstructed from: Search-engine summary of the now-deleted Morning Consult release; NOT verified against any retrieved document
Should be allowed to stay
68%
Wording notes: figures unverified | separates the retention question from the accession question, which is the analytically important distinction
unclear — no verified wording exists
Subgroup figures (3)
whether the military should continue to allow transgender people to enlist
Should the military allow transgender individuals to continue to join?
Wording reconstructed from: Search-engine summary of the now-deleted Morning Consult release; NOT verified
Should continue to allow transgender people to join
55%
Wording notes: figures unverified | support for new enlistment runs 13 points below support for retention, which is the substantive finding if it holds up
unclear — no verified wording exists
Subgroup figures (3)