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Morning Consult
Morning Consult National Tracking Poll #190727 (Transgender study) · Jul 19–21, 2019 · US national
Methodology
- Pollster
- Morning Consult commercial
- Sponsor
- Morning Consult
- Fielded
- Jul 19–21, 2019
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 2,200
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- Morning Consult online panel
- Mode
- online - self-administered web survey of the Morning Consult online panel
- Margin of error
- plus or minus 2 percentage points
- Weighting
- weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- Split-half design: the transgender-women items (TIS2, TIS4) were asked of n=1114 and the transgender-men items (TIS3, TIS5) of n=1086. TIS6 was asked of the full 2200.
Sources
Verification note. Wording, toplines and PID crosstabs read directly from the crosstabulation PDF. The PDF's 'fi' ligature is dropped by text extraction ('identi es', ' eld hockey'); the standard spellings are restored in question_text and this is flagged in wording_source. The companion strength items TIS1_1-3 are omitted because they do not name transgender people. This is the earliest Morning Consult dedicated transgender study located and the direct predecessor of the April 2021 study #210496, using near-identical wording. || Percentages, field dates, n and MOE read from Morning Consult's own write-up of the poll. The linked crosstab PDF (cms.morningconsult.com/.../190727_crosstabs_TRANSGENDER_Adults_v4_JB.pdf) returns HTTP 403 to automated fetching, so verbatim question wording, response-option lists and party crosstabs could not be confirmed. Note the crosstab filename encodes 190727, which does not match the July 19-21 field dates given in the article text - one of the two is likely a different wave and should be checked against the PDF by hand. || RESOLVED on design and figures; the crosstab itself is now behind a login. The Morning Consult article was retrieved in full via curl this session and confirms: 'The July 19-21 poll surveyed 2,200 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Roughly half the sample was asked questions about strength and speed of women and views about the competitive advantage of transgender women, while the other half was asked about men and transgender women.' THE DATE PUZZLE IN THE PREVIOUS NOTE IS SETTLED: the crosstab filename '190727' and the wp-uploads/2019/10 directory are artifacts of when the file was uploaded, not the field window; the article's own text fixes the fielding at July 19-21 2019 and there is no second wave. The SPLIT SAMPLE design is now recorded, which matters because the two advantage items were asked of different halves and are therefore independent measurements rather than a within-respondent comparison. TWO ITEMS ARE ADDED that the previous record lacked: 65 percent agreed that 'men are physically stronger and faster than women', and 57 percent of respondents who said they know a transgender or nonbinary individual agreed with the same statement - Morning Consult's own point being that contact does not move this belief the way it moves attitudes toward LGBTQ people generally. STILL BLOCKED: cms.morningconsult.com now redirects the crosstab PDF to a Morning Consult sign-in wall, so verbatim stems, full response-option lists and party crosstabs remain unobtainable without an account. The wordings below are Morning Consult's own phrasing as printed in the article, not questionnaire text.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (6)
whether trans women athletes have a competitive advantage over cis women
As you may know, a transgender woman is a person who was assigned the male sex at birth who identifies as female.
As you may know, a transgender woman is a person who was assigned the male sex at birth who identifies as female.Generally speaking, do you agree or disagree that transgender female athletes have a competitive advantage over non-transgender (aka cisgendered) female athletes?
Wording notes: supplies a definitional preamble that frames trans status in terms of sex assigned at birth | 'competitive advantage' is asserted as the proposition to be agreed with, an agree/disagree format prone to acquiescence | glosses cisgender as 'non-transgender (aka cisgendered)' | no hormone-therapy, age or eligibility-rule qualifier is offered
tilts_restrictive — the advantage claim is stated affirmatively and respondents are asked to assent; no counter-proposition is offered, and the preceding strength battery primes agreement
Subgroup figures (15)
whether trans men athletes have a competitive advantage over cis men
As you may know, a transgender man is a person who was assigned as female at birth who identifies as male.
As you may know, a transgender man is a person who was assigned as female at birth who identifies as male.Generally speaking, do you agree or disagree that transgender male athletes have a competitive advantage over non-transgender (aka cisgendered) male athletes?
Wording notes: supplies a definitional preamble that frames trans status in terms of sex assigned at birth | 'competitive advantage' is asserted as the proposition to be agreed with, an agree/disagree format prone to acquiescence | glosses cisgender as 'non-transgender (aka cisgendered)' | no hormone-therapy, age or eligibility-rule qualifier is offered
tilts_restrictive — same affirmative-claim construction as TIS2; the one-third don't-know share shows the reversed case had little prior public salience
Subgroup figures (15)
knowing a transgender or nonbinary person
As you may know, a transgender person is someone who identifies with a different gender than the one they were assigned at birth. A nonbinary person, also known as genderqueer, does not identify as exclusively masculine or feminine, but expresses multiple genders at the same time.
As you may know, a transgender person is someone who identifies with a different gender than the one they were assigned at birth. A nonbinary person, also known as genderqueer, does not identify as exclusively masculine or feminine, but expresses multiple genders at the same time. Do you know any transgender or nonbinary individuals?
No
60%
Yes
28%
Don't know / No opinion
12%
Wording notes: supplies definitions before asking, which may raise reported contact | bundles transgender and nonbinary acquaintance into one measure | unlike the 2021 version of this item, a don't-know option is offered
neutral — factual contact item with a neutral definitional preamble
Subgroup figures (9)
belief that transgender women have a competitive advantage over cisgender women
Transgender female athletes have a competitive advantage over cisgender female athletes
Wording reconstructed from: paraphrase reconstructed from Morning Consult's article text; the article describes an agree/disagree statement but does not print the stem verbatim
Wording notes: uses 'cisgender', unusual for mass-public polling | asserts a contested empirical claim for agreement
unclear — an agree/disagree statement of a contested empirical claim invites acquiescence bias; the priming item about men's strength preceding it in the same half-sample may raise agreement
belief that transgender men have a competitive advantage over cisgender men
Transgender male athletes have a competitive advantage over cisgender male athletes
Wording reconstructed from: paraphrase reconstructed from Morning Consult's article text
Wording notes: mirror-image split-half of the trans women item
unclear — same acquiescence concern; included as the designed symmetric counterpart
belief that men are physically stronger and faster than women
men are physically stronger and faster than women
Wording notes: a general sex-difference belief item used by Morning Consult to explain the athlete items | agree/disagree single statement, subject to acquiescence bias
unclear — a broad unqualified generalisation that most respondents will endorse regardless of view on trans athletes; its interpretive weight in the article exceeds what the item can carry
Subgroup figures (1)