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Morning Consult
Morning Consult National Tracking Poll #2107047 - transgender participation in women's sports and the Tokyo Olympics · Jul 9–13, 2021 · US national
Data flag. MOE IS THE SOURCE'S OWN. Morning Consult states '+/-1 percentage point' for n=4,398 (floor 1.48). Recorded faithfully; the impossibility is the pollster's.
Methodology
- Pollster
- Morning Consult commercial
- Sponsor
- Morning Consult
- Fielded
- Jul 9–13, 2021
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 4,398
- Sample frame
- online opt-in
- Panel
- Morning Consult
- Mode
- online interviews among a sample of 4,398 adults, July 9-13 2021
- Margin of error
- plus or minus 1 percentage point for the full survey
- Weighting
- weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on gender, educational attainment, age, race and region
- Geography
- US national
Sources
Verification note. Wording, topline and PID crosstabs read directly from Table MCSP18 of the crosstabulation PDF; the accompanying Morning Consult article gives the same figures. Fielded days before Laurel Hubbard competed at the Tokyo Games. The largest single-item trans sample located in this sweep (n=4398). || Field dates, n=4,398 and MOE of 1 point read from Morning Consult's own article; percentages likewise. The linked crosstab PDF on assets.morningconsult.com returns HTTP 403 to automated fetching, so the verbatim stem, the full response-option labels and the residual 'don't know' share (the three published options sum to only 80%) could not be confirmed. Poll project number 2107047 taken from the crosstab filename. || FULLY RESOLVED, INCLUDING THE MISSING RESIDUAL. The crosstab PDF URL was recovered by fetching the Morning Consult article via curl, then downloading the PDF directly (assets.morningconsult.com is 403 to the fetch tool but serves normally to curl). Methodology verbatim: 'This poll was conducted between July 9-July 13, 2021 among a sample of 4398 Adults. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of Adults based on gender, educational attainment, age, race, and region. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage points.' Field dates, n and MoE all match the stored record. THE GAP THE PREVIOUS NOTE FLAGGED IS CLOSED: the three published options summed to only 80 percent because the residual is a 20 percent 'Don't know / No opinion', which is now recorded. The verbatim stem is 'Which of the following is closest to your opinion, even if none is exactly right?' and the full response-option labels are transcribed exactly as printed, including Morning Consult's own typo 'tesosterone' in the third option. All three stored party figures (Republicans 70, Independents 38, Democrats 26) are confirmed, and gender, age and ideology breaks are added.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (3)
trans women in women's sports conditioned on testosterone level
Which of the following is closest to your opinion, even if none is exactly right? [Transgender women should be allowed to compete against other female athletes regardless of their testosterone level / Transgender women should be allowed to compete against other female athletes if their testosterone level is below a particular threshold / Transgender women should not be allowed to compete against other female athletes regardless of their tesosterone level / Don't know / No opinion]
Should be allowed 37%43% Should not be allowed
Wording notes: offers a conditional middle option keyed to testosterone, which no other pollster's version of this item provides | makes testosterone the sole criterion, excluding age of transition, surgery or governing-body rules | third option contains the pollster's typo 'tesosterone' | 'even if none is exactly right' licenses the forced choice
neutral — unusually well constructed for this topic: three substantive positions of comparable length plus a don't-know, with the restrictive and permissive absolutes stated symmetrically; the conditional middle captures a position that binary items force into one camp
Subgroup figures (12)
transgender women in women's sports, conditioned on testosterone level
Should transgender women be allowed to compete in women's sports?
Wording reconstructed from: reconstructed from Morning Consult's description of the three response options; the article did not print the stem and the crosstab PDF is 403
Should not compete regardless of testosterone levels
43%
Should compete if testosterone is below a certain threshold
23%
Should compete regardless of testosterone level
14%
Wording notes: introduces a testosterone-threshold middle option, which is unusual and pulls support away from the unconditional-inclusion option | published options sum to 80%, implying a large unreported don't-know residual
neutral — the three options map onto the actual IOC policy debate and are stated in parallel; the middle option is a real policy position rather than a hedge
Subgroup figures (4)
whether transgender women should compete against female athletes, conditioned on testosterone
Which of the following is closest to your opinion, even if none is exactly right?
Should be allowed 14%43% Should not be allowed
Wording notes: offers a conditional middle option keyed to testosterone level, which no other pollster's version of this item does | the third option contains Morning Consult's own misspelling, 'tesosterone', reproduced verbatim here | the generic stem ('closest to your opinion, even if none is exactly right') does not name the policy in the stem itself
neutral — the three substantive options span permit-always, permit-conditionally and prohibit-always, and the stem explicitly licenses respondents who fit none of them to pick the closest
Subgroup figures (27)