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Noble Predictive Insights

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, March 2026 · Mar 2–5, 2026 · US national

Methodology

Pollster
Noble Predictive Insights commercial
Sponsor
The Center Square
Commissioned by
The Center Square
Fielded
Mar 2–5, 2026
Population
registered voters
Sample size
2,659
Sample frame
unknown
Mode
not disclosed in The Center Square's write-up
Margin of error
not disclosed in The Center Square's write-up
Weighting
not disclosed
Geography
US national
Base notes
952 Republicans, 934 Democrats and 773 independents, of whom 330 are 'true independents' who declined to lean toward either major party.

Sources

Verification note. Pollster, field dates (2-5 March 2026) and the party/age percentages come from a search-engine summary of The Center Square's write-up. The Center Square article itself returns HTTP 402 to automated fetching (both the canonical and the tollbit redirect URL), so the Total row, n, MOE, mode and verbatim wording were not retrieved. The Total figure is deliberately left out rather than inferred from the subgroup values. Release date is approximate (month known). || RESOLVED on the missing Total row and the sample composition. thecentersquare.com returns HTTP 402 to the fetch tool but serves normally to curl with a browser user agent; the article was retrieved in full this session. RECOVERED: the Total figure the previous extractor deliberately left out - 68 percent of registered voters support allowing the Supreme Court to uphold state bans on transgender women competing in women's sports - plus the sample composition (2,659 respondents: 952 Republicans, 934 Democrats, 773 independents including 330 'true independents'), the field dates March 2-5 2026, and several breaks not previously stored: independents 49 percent support and true independents 65 percent; Democrats 51 percent would NOT support; true independents 35 percent would not; men 75 percent versus women 62 percent; and ages 45-64 at 66 percent, the lowest age group. The previously stored party and age figures (Republicans 88, Democrats 49, 18-29 at 67, 65+ at 70) are all confirmed. STILL MISSING: mode, weighting and margin of error, which The Center Square does not publish, and the literal question wording, which is also unpublished.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (2)

Sportsparaphrasedsupport/opposein a trend series
support for upholding state bans on transgender women in women's sports

Do you support or oppose upholding state bans on transgender women competing in women's sports?

Wording reconstructed from: paraphrase from a summary of The Center Square write-up; the release and toplines were not retrievable

Wording notes: asks about 'upholding' existing bans rather than about enacting them, a status-quo framing

unclear — verbatim wording unavailable; an 'uphold the existing ban' framing generally scores higher than an 'enact a ban' framing, but the actual stem could not be checked

Subgroup figures (4)

party

GroupSupport
Republicans88%
Democrats49%

age

GroupSupport
Age 18-2967%
Age 65+70%
Sportsparaphrasedsupport/opposein a trend series
support for the Supreme Court upholding state bans on transgender women in women's sports

[stem not published] whether the respondent supports allowing the Supreme Court to uphold state bans on transgender women competing in women's sports

Wording reconstructed from: The Center Square's description of its own Voters' Voice Poll item; Noble Predictive Insights published no topline with this article

Support
68%

Wording notes: ties the policy question to a pending Supreme Court decision rather than asking about the ban directly

unclear — the literal stem is unpublished; framing the item as 'allowing the Supreme Court to uphold' bundles deference to the Court with the underlying policy, but the effect cannot be assessed without the wording

Subgroup figures (11)

party

GroupSupportWould not support
Republicans88%—
Democrats49%51%
Independents49%—
True independents65%35%

gender

GroupSupport
Men75%
Women62%

age

GroupSupport
Age 18-2967%
Age 45-6466%
Age 65+70%

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →