mixed-mode probabilitysurvey of transgender people, not of the public
NORC (AmeriSpeak)
KFF/The Washington Post Trans Survey · Nov 10, 2022 – Dec 2022 · US national
Not a public-opinion poll. This surveys transgender people about their own lives, mostly
through nonprobability community samples. It describes a population and is not comparable with polls of the general public.
Methodology
- Pollster
- NORC (AmeriSpeak) independent
- Sponsor
- KFF and The Washington Post
- Commissioned by
- The Washington Post
- Fielded
- Nov 10, 2022 – Dec 2022
- Population
- adults (combined sample of 515 trans adults and 823 cisgender adults, weighted to the U.S. adult population)
- Sample size
- 1,338
- Sample frame
- mixed-mode probability
- Panel
- SSRS Opinion Panel; Gallup Panel; NORC AmeriSpeak
- Mode
- online and telephone, probability panels (SSRS Opinion Panel, Gallup Panel, NORC AmeriSpeak) plus telephone callbacks
- Margin of error
- not disclosed
- Weighting
- Trans sample weighted to the national trans adult population using CDC BRFSS and Williams Institute BRFSS small-area estimates (age, education, race/ethnicity, region). Full adult sample weighted to the 2021 Current Population Survey (sex, age, education and other parameters).
- Geography
- US national
- Base notes
- n=1,338 total adults = 515 trans adults + 823 cisgender adults. Trans oversample recruited from the Gallup Panel (252), NORC AmeriSpeak (146), SSRS Opinion Panel (85), plus 32 callback telephone interviews. Comparison sample n=823 from the SSRS Opinion Panel (784 online, 39 by phone).
Sources
Verification note. All wording and percentages read directly from the KFF/Washington Post topline PDF (Q33, Q34, Q26). This is the single best source in the corpus for whether the level of sport changes the answer: it does not - professional, college, high school and youth all land within 3 points. No party breakdowns are published in the topline.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (3)
trans women and girls competing with other women and girls, asked separately at four levels of sport
Thinking about trans women and girls - people whose sex was classified as male at birth but who currently identify as female - do you think trans women and girls should or should not be allowed to compete in sports with other women and girls at each of the following levels.
Should be allowed 139%258% Should not be allowed
Wording notes: uses 'trans women and girls', not 'biological males' | defines them as 'people whose sex was classified as male at birth' | asks the four levels of sport separately (professional, college, high school, youth) - items rotated ABCD/DCBA | no middle option offered | asks about competing 'with other women and girls', not about sports generally
neutral — descriptive definitional clause, symmetric should/should-not, and the level-of-sport split is a genuine measurement improvement rather than a slant
Subgroup figures (4)
Sports4-point scale
concern about mental-health effect of excluding trans girls from youth sports
If trans girls are not allowed to compete with other girls in youth sports, how concerned, if at all, are you that the mental health of trans girls will suffer?
Somewhat concerned
36%
Not too concerned
27%
Very concerned
19%
Not at all concerned
18%
Very/Somewhat concerned (NET) 54%Not too/Not at all concerned (NET) 46%
Wording notes: asks about a consequence of exclusion rather than about the policy itself | follows immediately after the four-level sports item
tilts_affirming — the item presupposes the exclusion scenario and asks only about harm to trans girls; no parallel item asks about concern for cisgender girls' competitive opportunities
Subgroup figures (1)
Identity beliefsforced choice
whether being a man or woman is determined by sex assigned at birth
Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right?
Determined by sex assigned at birth
57%
Can be different from sex assigned at birth
43%
Wording notes: statements rotated 1-2/2-1 | explicit 'even if neither is exactly right' concession | no middle option offered
neutral — two symmetric statements, rotated
Subgroup figures (2)