probability panel

NORC (AmeriSpeak)

Los Angeles Times/NORC Poll on LGBTQ+ Communities · Jan 18–26, 2024 · US national, with a California oversample

Methodology

Pollster
NORC (AmeriSpeak) academic
Sponsor
The California Endowment (funder); conducted by NORC with The Los Angeles Times
Commissioned by
The Los Angeles Times
Fielded
Jan 18–26, 2024
Population
adults, with oversamples of California residents and LGBTQ+ adults
Sample size
1,624
Sample frame
probability panel
Panel
NORC AmeriSpeak Panel
Mode
AmeriSpeak probability panel, self-administered web with telephone for non-internet panelists
Margin of error
+/- 3.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level among all adults, including the design effect; +/- 4.5 points among California residents; +/- 8.3 points among LGBTQ+ adults
Weighting
poststratification on age, gender, census division, race/ethnicity, and education; targets from the 2023 Current Population Survey
Geography
US national, with a California oversample
Base notes
1,619 completed via the web and 5 by telephone. Includes 775 California residents (+/- 4.5 pts) and 313 LGBTQ+ adults (+/- 8.3 pts). 77 interviews were removed in quality-assurance checks prior to weighting. The LGBTQ+ subgroup is not a trans-only sample; it combines lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer respondents.

Sources

Verification note. All wordings and percentages copied directly from the NORC/LA Times topline PDF. This is a NORC AmeriSpeak poll rather than an AP-NORC Center poll, included here because it uses the same AmeriSpeak probability panel and is the richest AmeriSpeak battery on transgender policy in the 2014-2026 window. No party crosstab is published in the topline; the published breaks are national, California, and LGBTQ+ adults. Release date not confirmed from a primary source.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (19)

Contact & populationforced choicein a trend series
knowing someone who has come out as trans or nonbinary

Do you have any friends, or relatives, or co-workers who have told you, personally, that they identify as any of the following? Transgender or nonbinary

No
69%
Yes
27%
Skipped/refused
5%

Wording notes: asked as a grid alongside 'gay or lesbian' and 'bisexual' | requires that the person told the respondent personally, a stricter test than generic 'do you know'

neutral — plain contact measure; the disclosure requirement is stated explicitly rather than implied

Subgroup figures (6)

region

GroupYesNoSkipped/refused
California adults28%67%5%

lgbtq_status

GroupYesNoSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults53%42%5%
Nondiscriminationfavor/opposein a trend series
laws protecting trans and nonbinary people against job discrimination

Do you favor or oppose laws to protect each of the following against job discrimination? Transgender or nonbinary people

Favor 68%30% Oppose

Wording notes: grid asked with parallel items for gay or lesbian people and bisexual people, allowing a within-battery gap measure | no middle option

neutral — symmetric favor/oppose on a plainly described statutory protection

Subgroup figures (5)

region

GroupFavorOpposeSkipped/refused
California adults72%25%3%

lgbtq_status

GroupFavorOppose
LGBTQ+ adults90%10%
General acceptanceforced choicein a trend series
willingness to vote for a transgender or nonbinary congressional candidate

If your party nominated a well-qualified person for Congress, and you heard that they were any of the following, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, or less likely, or wouldn't it make any difference one way or the other? Transgender or nonbinary

Would not make a difference
59%
Less likely to vote for the candidate
33%
More likely to vote for the candidate
7%
Skipped/refused
1%

Wording notes: classic Gallup-style 'well-qualified nominee of your own party' construction | parallel items for gay or lesbian and bisexual candidates in the same grid

neutral — the 'well-qualified' and 'your party' stipulations are the standard design for isolating identity-based penalty; both directions are offered

Subgroup figures (8)

region

GroupMore likely to vote for the candidateLess likely to vote for the candidateWould not make a differenceSkipped/refused
California adults6%30%62%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupMore likely to vote for the candidateLess likely to vote for the candidateWould not make a differenceSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults30%15%54%1%
Political salienceforced choicein a trend series
whether government pays too much or too little attention to trans and nonbinary people

Do you think the government is paying too much attention, is paying about the right amount, or isn't paying enough attention to each of the following? Transgender or nonbinary people

Too much attention
48%
The right amount of attention
28%
Not enough attention
21%
Skipped/refused
2%

Wording notes: parallel items for gay or lesbian people and bisexual people

neutral — three-way construction with a stated midpoint and both directions available

Subgroup figures (8)

region

GroupToo much attentionThe right amount of attentionNot enough attentionSkipped/refused
California adults48%28%21%3%

lgbtq_status

GroupToo much attentionThe right amount of attentionNot enough attentionSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults36%21%40%3%
Identity beliefsforced choicein a trend series
attributed cause of gender not matching sex assigned at birth

In your opinion, why do some people feel their gender does not match the sex they're assigned at birth?

They are born that way
46%
They are influenced by society
29%
It is a lifestyle choice
24%
Skipped on web/refused
1%

Wording notes: only three explanations offered, with no 'some combination' or 'other' option | directly parallel to Q12A about same-sex attraction, which allows comparison

unclear — the three options are not exhaustive and force a single-cause attribution; 'lifestyle choice' is a contested framing but is a real position held by respondents, and 'born that way' is offered as its counterweight

Subgroup figures (8)

region

GroupThey are born that wayThey are influenced by societyIt is a lifestyle choiceSkipped on web/refused
California adults52%26%19%3%

lgbtq_status

GroupThey are born that wayThey are influenced by societyIt is a lifestyle choiceSkipped on web/refused
LGBTQ+ adults75%12%10%3%
General acceptanceapprove/disapprovein a trend series
approval of trans and nonbinary people living their lives as they wish

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Do you approve or disapprove of each of the following living their lives as they wish? People who are transgender or nonbinary

Approve 67%31% Disapprove

Wording notes: no middle option | parallel items for gay or lesbian people and bisexual people in the same grid | 'living their lives as they wish' is a broad, non-specific stimulus

neutral — symmetric four-point approve/disapprove with rotated poles; the stimulus is vague but identically vague across the three groups compared

Subgroup figures (14)

region

GroupStrongly/somewhat approve (NET)Strongly approveSomewhat approveStrongly/somewhat disapprove (NET)Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveSkipped/refused
California adults69%47%21%29%16%13%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupStrongly/somewhat approve (NET)Strongly approveSomewhat approveStrongly/somewhat disapprove (NET)Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults92%78%15%7%5%2%1%
Political salienceforced choicein a trend series
whether increased political and media attention on trans people is good for society

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

In recent years, more political and media attention has been focused on transgender and nonbinary people. Do you think this is a good thing for society, a bad thing for society, or neither a good nor bad thing for society?

A bad thing for society
40%
A good thing for society
16%
Neither
42%
Skipped on web/refused
1%

Wording notes: premise stated as fact in the stem | explicit 'neither' midpoint

neutral — the premise that attention has increased is factually defensible and both evaluative directions are offered with a midpoint

Subgroup figures (8)

region

GroupA good thing for societyA bad thing for societyNeitherSkipped on web/refused
California adults20%38%40%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupA good thing for societyA bad thing for societyNeitherSkipped on web/refused
LGBTQ+ adults37%21%40%2%
Political salience4-point scalein a trend series
whether increased attention has been supportive of the trans community

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

On balance, how supportive or unsupportive do you think the increased political and media attention on transgender and nonbinary people has been for their community?

Somewhat supportive
38%
Somewhat unsupportive
25%
Mostly supportive
18%
Mostly unsupportive
17%
Skipped on web/refused
2%
Mostly/somewhat supportive (NET) 56%Mostly/somewhat unsupportive (NET) 42%

Wording notes: no midpoint | notable divergence between the general public and LGBTQ+ adults, who answer in the opposite direction

neutral — symmetric four-point scale with rotated poles

Subgroup figures (14)

region

GroupMostly/somewhat supportive (NET)Mostly supportiveSomewhat supportiveMostly/somewhat unsupportive (NET)Somewhat unsupportiveMostly unsupportiveSkipped on web/refused
California adults59%20%38%38%23%15%3%

lgbtq_status

GroupMostly/somewhat supportive (NET)Mostly supportiveSomewhat supportiveMostly/somewhat unsupportive (NET)Somewhat unsupportiveMostly unsupportiveSkipped on web/refused
LGBTQ+ adults42%14%27%57%27%30%2%
Identity beliefs5-point scalein a trend series
whether trans/nonbinary identity is real or 'just a phase', by age group: Young children

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Thinking about each of the following groups who identify as transgender or nonbinary, do you believe... Young children

It's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phase
38%
It's just a phase most of the time
22%
It's always just a phase
20%
It's their true identity most of the time
13%
It's always their true identity
6%
Skipped/refused
2%

Wording notes: 'just a phase' is a delegitimizing frame supplied by the pollster as one pole | no neutral 'don't know enough' option other than item nonresponse | age of the trans person is the experimental variable across three items

loaded_terms — 'just a phase' imports a specific skeptical narrative as a scale pole; the opposing pole ('their true identity') is affirming, so the scale is symmetric in direction but both anchors are contested language rather than neutral description

Subgroup figures (12)

region

GroupIt's always their true identityIt's their true identity most of the timeIt's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phaseIt's just a phase most of the timeIt's always just a phaseSkipped/refused
California adults5%11%42%20%20%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupIt's always their true identityIt's their true identity most of the timeIt's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phaseIt's just a phase most of the timeIt's always just a phaseSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults14%21%47%12%5%1%
Identity beliefs5-point scalein a trend series
whether trans/nonbinary identity is real or 'just a phase', by age group: Teenagers

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Thinking about each of the following groups who identify as transgender or nonbinary, do you believe... Teenagers

It's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phase
37%
It's just a phase most of the time
22%
It's their true identity most of the time
19%
It's always just a phase
14%
It's always their true identity
7%
Skipped/refused
2%

Wording notes: 'just a phase' is a delegitimizing frame supplied by the pollster as one pole | no neutral 'don't know enough' option other than item nonresponse | age of the trans person is the experimental variable across three items

loaded_terms — 'just a phase' imports a specific skeptical narrative as a scale pole; the opposing pole ('their true identity') is affirming, so the scale is symmetric in direction but both anchors are contested language rather than neutral description

Subgroup figures (12)

region

GroupIt's always their true identityIt's their true identity most of the timeIt's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phaseIt's just a phase most of the timeIt's always just a phaseSkipped/refused
California adults7%19%42%15%15%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupIt's always their true identityIt's their true identity most of the timeIt's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phaseIt's just a phase most of the timeIt's always just a phaseSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults19%34%34%10%2%2%
Identity beliefs5-point scalein a trend series
whether trans/nonbinary identity is real or 'just a phase', by age group: Adults

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Thinking about each of the following groups who identify as transgender or nonbinary, do you believe... Adults

It's their true identity most of the time
31%
It's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phase
27%
It's always their true identity
21%
It's just a phase most of the time
10%
It's always just a phase
9%
Skipped/refused
2%

Wording notes: 'just a phase' is a delegitimizing frame supplied by the pollster as one pole | no neutral 'don't know enough' option other than item nonresponse | age of the trans person is the experimental variable across three items

loaded_terms — 'just a phase' imports a specific skeptical narrative as a scale pole; the opposing pole ('their true identity') is affirming, so the scale is symmetric in direction but both anchors are contested language rather than neutral description

Subgroup figures (12)

region

GroupIt's always their true identityIt's their true identity most of the timeIt's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phaseIt's just a phase most of the timeIt's always just a phaseSkipped/refused
California adults23%37%23%5%9%3%

lgbtq_status

GroupIt's always their true identityIt's their true identity most of the timeIt's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phaseIt's just a phase most of the timeIt's always just a phaseSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults34%44%14%5%2%1%
Political salienceforced choicein a trend series
whether trans issues are a real priority or a political distraction

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Issues regarding transgender and nonbinary people have come up in many states in the past few years. Which comes closer to your view?

Elected officials are mostly using debates over transgender and nonbinary people to distract attention from more pressing priorities.
77%
Issues regarding transgender people are an important priority for elected officials.
21%
Skipped/refused
2%

Wording notes: the two alternatives are not logical opposites - one is about importance, the other about elected officials' motives | the 'distract' option is considerably longer and more elaborated than the 'priority' option | no middle option

double_barreled — the second option bundles a motive claim ('mostly using ... to distract') with a priority judgment, so agreement can express either cynicism about politicians or a view that the issue is unimportant; the asymmetric length of the two options also favors the second

Subgroup figures (6)

region

GroupIssues regarding transgender people are an important priority for elected officials.Elected officials are mostly using debates over transgender and nonbinary people to distract attention from more pressing priorities.Skipped/refused
California adults20%76%4%

lgbtq_status

GroupIssues regarding transgender people are an important priority for elected officials.Elected officials are mostly using debates over transgender and nonbinary people to distract attention from more pressing priorities.Skipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults29%70%1%
Youth medical carefavor/opposein a trend series
state laws on gender-affirming care: ban minors

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Gender affirming care can include gender-affirming surgeries, puberty blockers for teenagers, and hormone treatments. Do you favor or oppose each of the following? State laws that prevent a child younger than 18 who identifies as transgender or nonbinary from receiving gender-affirming medical care when the parents, the child and their doctors believe that medical treatments are appropriate

Favor 54%44% Oppose

Wording notes: preamble defines gender-affirming care as including surgeries, puberty blockers and hormone treatments | no middle option | stipulates that parents, the child and doctors all agree the treatment is appropriate, which removes the consent controversy from the frame | restrictive-direction item: 'favor' is the restrictive answer

neutral — the battery is unusually well constructed for wording research because it mirrors each policy in both polarities; the 'parents, child and doctors agree' clause in the minor items does supply an affirming cue, but it is present identically in both the ban and the protect versions

Subgroup figures (6)

region

GroupFavorOpposeSkipped/refused
California adults51%47%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupFavorOpposeSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults30%69%1%
Parental rights4-point scalein a trend series
whether schools should tell parents a teenager identifies as trans against the student's wishes

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

If a teenager tells a teacher or other school personnel that they identify as transgender or nonbinary but they do not want to tell their parents, which comes closest to your opinion on how the school should respond?

The school should respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents except in rare circumstances.
42%
The school should always tell the parents, regardless of the student's wishes.
28%
The school should tell the parents except in rare circumstances.
15%
The school should always respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents.
12%
Skipped/refused
3%

Wording notes: four graded options rather than a binary, which separates absolutists from those who allow exceptions | the stem explicitly states the student does not want the parents told, which foregrounds the student's autonomy interest

neutral — the four-point construction is balanced two-and-two around the notification question; naming the student's wish is a necessary premise for the item rather than an advocacy cue

Subgroup figures (10)

region

GroupThe school should always tell the parents, regardless of the student's wishes.The school should tell the parents except in rare circumstances.The school should respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents except in rare circumstances.The school should always respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents.Skipped/refused
California adults28%18%39%13%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupThe school should always tell the parents, regardless of the student's wishes.The school should tell the parents except in rare circumstances.The school should respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents except in rare circumstances.The school should always respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents.Skipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults10%8%53%29%1%
School policyforced choicein a trend series
whether local schools do too much or too little to accept trans students

[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Do you believe that schools in your area are doing too much to accept transgender and nonbinary students, too little to accept transgender and nonbinary students, or are they already doing the right amount?

The right amount
44%
Too much
28%
Too little
25%
Skipped/refused
3%

Wording notes: localized to 'schools in your area', which respondents may know little about | explicit 'right amount' midpoint

neutral — balanced too much / too little construction with a midpoint

Subgroup figures (8)

region

GroupToo muchToo littleThe right amountSkipped/refused
California adults29%19%47%5%

lgbtq_status

GroupToo muchToo littleThe right amountSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults13%52%32%3%
Sports4-point scalein a trend series
athletic participation: Transgender girls being allowed to compete on girls' teams in sports

[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender girls being allowed to compete on girls' teams in sports

Never
50%
In most cases
19%
In rare cases
16%
Always
12%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 31%Never/in rare cases (NET) 66%

Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit

neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out

Subgroup figures (14)

region

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNeverSkipped/refused
California adults33%12%21%65%16%49%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNeverSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults64%33%31%35%12%23%1%
Sports4-point scalein a trend series
athletic participation: Transgender women being allowed to compete on women's teams in sports

[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender women being allowed to compete on women's teams in sports

Never
52%
In most cases
17%
In rare cases
17%
Always
11%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 29%Never/in rare cases (NET) 69%

Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit

neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out

Subgroup figures (14)

region

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNeverSkipped/refused
California adults31%11%20%66%17%49%3%

lgbtq_status

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNeverSkipped/refused
LGBTQ+ adults61%30%31%38%14%24%1%
Sports4-point scalein a trend series
athletic participation: Transgender boys being allowed to compete on boys' teams in sports

[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender boys being allowed to compete on boys' teams in sports

Never
45%
In most cases
24%
Always
18%
In rare cases
11%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 41%Never/in rare cases (NET) 56%

Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit

neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out

Subgroup figures (13)

region

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNeverSkipped/refused
California adults42%16%26%55%13%42%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNever
LGBTQ+ adults66%36%31%33%13%20%
Sports4-point scalein a trend series
athletic participation: Transgender men being allowed to compete on men's teams in sports

[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]

Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender men being allowed to compete on men's teams in sports

Never
45%
In most cases
22%
Always
17%
In rare cases
13%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 39%Never/in rare cases (NET) 58%

Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit

neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out

Subgroup figures (13)

region

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNeverSkipped/refused
California adults42%17%25%56%14%42%2%

lgbtq_status

GroupAlways/in most cases (NET)AlwaysIn most casesNever/in rare cases (NET)In rare casesNever
LGBTQ+ adults67%38%29%32%13%19%

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →