probability panel
NORC (AmeriSpeak)
Los Angeles Times/NORC Poll on LGBTQ+ Communities · Jan 18–26, 2024 · US national, with a California oversample
Methodology
- Pollster
- NORC (AmeriSpeak) academic
- Sponsor
- The California Endowment (funder); conducted by NORC with The Los Angeles Times
- Commissioned by
- The Los Angeles Times
- Fielded
- Jan 18–26, 2024
- Population
- adults, with oversamples of California residents and LGBTQ+ adults
- Sample size
- 1,624
- Sample frame
- probability panel
- Panel
- NORC AmeriSpeak Panel
- Mode
- AmeriSpeak probability panel, self-administered web with telephone for non-internet panelists
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level among all adults, including the design effect; +/- 4.5 points among California residents; +/- 8.3 points among LGBTQ+ adults
- Weighting
- poststratification on age, gender, census division, race/ethnicity, and education; targets from the 2023 Current Population Survey
- Geography
- US national, with a California oversample
- Base notes
- 1,619 completed via the web and 5 by telephone. Includes 775 California residents (+/- 4.5 pts) and 313 LGBTQ+ adults (+/- 8.3 pts). 77 interviews were removed in quality-assurance checks prior to weighting. The LGBTQ+ subgroup is not a trans-only sample; it combines lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer respondents.
Sources
Verification note. All wordings and percentages copied directly from the NORC/LA Times topline PDF. This is a NORC AmeriSpeak poll rather than an AP-NORC Center poll, included here because it uses the same AmeriSpeak probability panel and is the richest AmeriSpeak battery on transgender policy in the 2014-2026 window. No party crosstab is published in the topline; the published breaks are national, California, and LGBTQ+ adults. Release date not confirmed from a primary source.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (19)
knowing someone who has come out as trans or nonbinary
Do you have any friends, or relatives, or co-workers who have told you, personally, that they identify as any of the following? Transgender or nonbinary
No
69%
Yes
27%
Skipped/refused
5%
Wording notes: asked as a grid alongside 'gay or lesbian' and 'bisexual' | requires that the person told the respondent personally, a stricter test than generic 'do you know'
neutral — plain contact measure; the disclosure requirement is stated explicitly rather than implied
Subgroup figures (6)
laws protecting trans and nonbinary people against job discrimination
Do you favor or oppose laws to protect each of the following against job discrimination? Transgender or nonbinary people
Wording notes: grid asked with parallel items for gay or lesbian people and bisexual people, allowing a within-battery gap measure | no middle option
neutral — symmetric favor/oppose on a plainly described statutory protection
Subgroup figures (5)
willingness to vote for a transgender or nonbinary congressional candidate
If your party nominated a well-qualified person for Congress, and you heard that they were any of the following, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, or less likely, or wouldn't it make any difference one way or the other? Transgender or nonbinary
Would not make a difference
59%
Less likely to vote for the candidate
33%
More likely to vote for the candidate
7%
Skipped/refused
1%
Wording notes: classic Gallup-style 'well-qualified nominee of your own party' construction | parallel items for gay or lesbian and bisexual candidates in the same grid
neutral — the 'well-qualified' and 'your party' stipulations are the standard design for isolating identity-based penalty; both directions are offered
Subgroup figures (8)
whether government pays too much or too little attention to trans and nonbinary people
Do you think the government is paying too much attention, is paying about the right amount, or isn't paying enough attention to each of the following? Transgender or nonbinary people
Too much attention
48%
The right amount of attention
28%
Not enough attention
21%
Skipped/refused
2%
Wording notes: parallel items for gay or lesbian people and bisexual people
neutral — three-way construction with a stated midpoint and both directions available
Subgroup figures (8)
attributed cause of gender not matching sex assigned at birth
In your opinion, why do some people feel their gender does not match the sex they're assigned at birth?
They are born that way
46%
They are influenced by society
29%
It is a lifestyle choice
24%
Skipped on web/refused
1%
Wording notes: only three explanations offered, with no 'some combination' or 'other' option | directly parallel to Q12A about same-sex attraction, which allows comparison
unclear — the three options are not exhaustive and force a single-cause attribution; 'lifestyle choice' is a contested framing but is a real position held by respondents, and 'born that way' is offered as its counterweight
Subgroup figures (8)
approval of trans and nonbinary people living their lives as they wish
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you approve or disapprove of each of the following living their lives as they wish? People who are transgender or nonbinary
Approve 67%31% Disapprove
Wording notes: no middle option | parallel items for gay or lesbian people and bisexual people in the same grid | 'living their lives as they wish' is a broad, non-specific stimulus
neutral — symmetric four-point approve/disapprove with rotated poles; the stimulus is vague but identically vague across the three groups compared
Subgroup figures (14)
whether increased political and media attention on trans people is good for society
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
In recent years, more political and media attention has been focused on transgender and nonbinary people. Do you think this is a good thing for society, a bad thing for society, or neither a good nor bad thing for society?
A bad thing for society
40%
A good thing for society
16%
Neither
42%
Skipped on web/refused
1%
Wording notes: premise stated as fact in the stem | explicit 'neither' midpoint
neutral — the premise that attention has increased is factually defensible and both evaluative directions are offered with a midpoint
Subgroup figures (8)
whether increased attention has been supportive of the trans community
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
On balance, how supportive or unsupportive do you think the increased political and media attention on transgender and nonbinary people has been for their community?
Somewhat supportive
38%
Somewhat unsupportive
25%
Mostly supportive
18%
Mostly unsupportive
17%
Skipped on web/refused
2%
Mostly/somewhat supportive (NET) 56%Mostly/somewhat unsupportive (NET) 42%
Wording notes: no midpoint | notable divergence between the general public and LGBTQ+ adults, who answer in the opposite direction
neutral — symmetric four-point scale with rotated poles
Subgroup figures (14)
whether trans/nonbinary identity is real or 'just a phase', by age group: Young children
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Thinking about each of the following groups who identify as transgender or nonbinary, do you believe... Young children
It's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phase
38%
It's just a phase most of the time
22%
It's always just a phase
20%
It's their true identity most of the time
13%
It's always their true identity
6%
Skipped/refused
2%
Wording notes: 'just a phase' is a delegitimizing frame supplied by the pollster as one pole | no neutral 'don't know enough' option other than item nonresponse | age of the trans person is the experimental variable across three items
loaded_terms — 'just a phase' imports a specific skeptical narrative as a scale pole; the opposing pole ('their true identity') is affirming, so the scale is symmetric in direction but both anchors are contested language rather than neutral description
Subgroup figures (12)
whether trans/nonbinary identity is real or 'just a phase', by age group: Teenagers
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Thinking about each of the following groups who identify as transgender or nonbinary, do you believe... Teenagers
It's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phase
37%
It's just a phase most of the time
22%
It's their true identity most of the time
19%
It's always just a phase
14%
It's always their true identity
7%
Skipped/refused
2%
Wording notes: 'just a phase' is a delegitimizing frame supplied by the pollster as one pole | no neutral 'don't know enough' option other than item nonresponse | age of the trans person is the experimental variable across three items
loaded_terms — 'just a phase' imports a specific skeptical narrative as a scale pole; the opposing pole ('their true identity') is affirming, so the scale is symmetric in direction but both anchors are contested language rather than neutral description
Subgroup figures (12)
whether trans/nonbinary identity is real or 'just a phase', by age group: Adults
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Thinking about each of the following groups who identify as transgender or nonbinary, do you believe... Adults
It's their true identity most of the time
31%
It's sometimes their true identity and sometimes just a phase
27%
It's always their true identity
21%
It's just a phase most of the time
10%
It's always just a phase
9%
Skipped/refused
2%
Wording notes: 'just a phase' is a delegitimizing frame supplied by the pollster as one pole | no neutral 'don't know enough' option other than item nonresponse | age of the trans person is the experimental variable across three items
loaded_terms — 'just a phase' imports a specific skeptical narrative as a scale pole; the opposing pole ('their true identity') is affirming, so the scale is symmetric in direction but both anchors are contested language rather than neutral description
Subgroup figures (12)
whether trans issues are a real priority or a political distraction
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Issues regarding transgender and nonbinary people have come up in many states in the past few years. Which comes closer to your view?
Elected officials are mostly using debates over transgender and nonbinary people to distract attention from more pressing priorities.
77%
Issues regarding transgender people are an important priority for elected officials.
21%
Skipped/refused
2%
Wording notes: the two alternatives are not logical opposites - one is about importance, the other about elected officials' motives | the 'distract' option is considerably longer and more elaborated than the 'priority' option | no middle option
double_barreled — the second option bundles a motive claim ('mostly using ... to distract') with a priority judgment, so agreement can express either cynicism about politicians or a view that the issue is unimportant; the asymmetric length of the two options also favors the second
Subgroup figures (6)
state laws on gender-affirming care: ban minors
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Gender affirming care can include gender-affirming surgeries, puberty blockers for teenagers, and hormone treatments. Do you favor or oppose each of the following? State laws that prevent a child younger than 18 who identifies as transgender or nonbinary from receiving gender-affirming medical care when the parents, the child and their doctors believe that medical treatments are appropriate
Wording notes: preamble defines gender-affirming care as including surgeries, puberty blockers and hormone treatments | no middle option | stipulates that parents, the child and doctors all agree the treatment is appropriate, which removes the consent controversy from the frame | restrictive-direction item: 'favor' is the restrictive answer
neutral — the battery is unusually well constructed for wording research because it mirrors each policy in both polarities; the 'parents, child and doctors agree' clause in the minor items does supply an affirming cue, but it is present identically in both the ban and the protect versions
Subgroup figures (6)
whether schools should tell parents a teenager identifies as trans against the student's wishes
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
If a teenager tells a teacher or other school personnel that they identify as transgender or nonbinary but they do not want to tell their parents, which comes closest to your opinion on how the school should respond?
The school should respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents except in rare circumstances.
42%
The school should always tell the parents, regardless of the student's wishes.
28%
The school should tell the parents except in rare circumstances.
15%
The school should always respect the student's wishes and not tell the parents.
12%
Skipped/refused
3%
Wording notes: four graded options rather than a binary, which separates absolutists from those who allow exceptions | the stem explicitly states the student does not want the parents told, which foregrounds the student's autonomy interest
neutral — the four-point construction is balanced two-and-two around the notification question; naming the student's wish is a necessary premise for the item rather than an advocacy cue
Subgroup figures (10)
whether local schools do too much or too little to accept trans students
[HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Do you believe that schools in your area are doing too much to accept transgender and nonbinary students, too little to accept transgender and nonbinary students, or are they already doing the right amount?
The right amount
44%
Too much
28%
Too little
25%
Skipped/refused
3%
Wording notes: localized to 'schools in your area', which respondents may know little about | explicit 'right amount' midpoint
neutral — balanced too much / too little construction with a midpoint
Subgroup figures (8)
athletic participation: Transgender girls being allowed to compete on girls' teams in sports
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender girls being allowed to compete on girls' teams in sports
Never
50%
In most cases
19%
In rare cases
16%
Always
12%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 31%Never/in rare cases (NET) 66%
Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit
neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out
Subgroup figures (14)
athletic participation: Transgender women being allowed to compete on women's teams in sports
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender women being allowed to compete on women's teams in sports
Never
52%
In most cases
17%
In rare cases
17%
Always
11%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 29%Never/in rare cases (NET) 69%
Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit
neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out
Subgroup figures (14)
athletic participation: Transgender boys being allowed to compete on boys' teams in sports
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender boys being allowed to compete on boys' teams in sports
Never
45%
In most cases
24%
Always
18%
In rare cases
11%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 41%Never/in rare cases (NET) 56%
Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit
neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out
Subgroup figures (13)
athletic participation: Transgender men being allowed to compete on men's teams in sports
[GRID ITEMS RANDOMIZED, HALF SAMPLE SHOWN RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
Should each of the following be allowed always, in most cases, in rare cases, or never? Transgender men being allowed to compete on men's teams in sports
Never
45%
In most cases
22%
Always
17%
In rare cases
13%
Skipped/refused
3%
Always/in most cases (NET) 39%Never/in rare cases (NET) 58%
Wording notes: four-point always/never scale rather than a binary, which captures conditional permissiveness | grid items randomized; response order reversed for half the sample | battery covers trans boys and men as well as trans girls and women, which most sports items omit
neutral — the four-point scale is symmetric, and including the trans-boys and trans-men items supplies the comparison most sports questions leave out
Subgroup figures (13)