mixed-mode probability

Public Policy Polling

PPP North Carolina survey, August 2016 ('North Carolina Races Tight Across The Board') · Aug 5–7, 2016 · US: North Carolina

Methodology

Pollster
Public Policy Polling partisan_d
Sponsor
Public Policy Polling
Fielded
Aug 5–7, 2016
Population
likely voters
Sample size
830
Sample frame
mixed-mode probability
Mode
mixed mode - 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.
Margin of error
plus or minus 3.4 percent
Weighting
not disclosed in the release
Geography
US: North Carolina

Sources

Verification note. FULLY RESOLVED. The release PDF was located by pattern-matching PPP's own filename convention (PPP_Release_NC_<mmddyy>.pdf) and downloading directly with curl, which bypasses the Cloudflare challenge on the release page. VERBATIM METHODOLOGY: 'Public Policy Polling surveyed 830 likely voters from August 5th to 7th. The margin of error is +/-3.4%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.' This CORRECTS the previous record's IVR guess for the sample frame and supplies the n. DATE CORRECTION: the previous row carried 2016-08-01 for both field dates; the true window is August 5-7 2016. TITLE CORRECTION: the release is headlined 'North Carolina Races Tight Across The Board', not 'NC Governor's Race Remains Tied; HB2 Still Unpopular' as the previous record's poll_name had it - the figures nonetheless match this fielding exactly, so it is the right poll under a wrong title. POPULATION CORRECTION: this wave is of LIKELY voters, whereas the May wave was of registered voters, so the two are not perfectly comparable. All seven HB2-related questions are now recorded with verbatim wording and complete distributions including not-sure shares. The stored figures (30/43 support, 58/22 hurting-helping, 58/8 economy) are all confirmed, and four further items are added, including two that the previous record lacked entirely: approval of McCrory's handling of HB2 (39/47) and whether that handling makes voters more or less likely to support him (31 more likely / 43 less likely / 17 no difference).

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (7)

Bathrooms & facilitiessupport/opposein a trend series
support or opposition to HB2

Do you support or oppose House Bill 2?

Support 30%43% Oppose

Wording notes: not-sure share rises to 27 percent from 21 percent in May | names the bill only by number

neutral — identical construction to the May wave, so the two are directly comparable

Party & candidate handlingapprove/disapprovein a trend series
approval of Governor McCrory's handling of HB2

Do you approve or disapprove of how Governor Pat McCrory has handled HB2?

Approve 39%47% Disapprove

Wording notes: candidate-handling item

neutral — standard approve/disapprove with a not-sure option

Political salienceforced choicein a trend series
whether McCrory's handling of HB2 affects vote choice

Does Governor McCrory's handling of HB2 make you more or less likely to vote for him this fall, or does it not make a difference?

Less Likely
43%
More Likely
31%
Does not make a difference
17%
Not sure
8%

Wording notes: a self-reported vote-effect item, which respondents are poor at answering accurately | offers an explicit no-difference option

neutral — both directions and a no-difference option are offered

Bathrooms & facilitiesforced choicein a trend series
whether HB2 is helping or hurting North Carolina

Overall, do you think HB2 is helping or hurting North Carolina?

HB2 is hurting North Carolina
58%
HB2 is helping North Carolina
22%
Not sure
20%

Wording notes: directly comparable to the May wave

neutral — symmetric construction

Bathrooms & facilitiesforced choicein a trend series
perceived economic impact of HB2

Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on the North Carolina economy, or has it not made a difference?

HB2 has had a negative impact on NC economy
58%
Has not made a difference
24%
HB2 has had a positive impact on NC economy
8%
Not sure
10%

Wording notes: directly comparable to the May wave

neutral — symmetric three-option construction

Bathrooms & facilitiesforced choicein a trend series
perceived impact of HB2 on North Carolina's national reputation

Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on North Carolina's reputation nationally, or has it not made a difference?

HB2 has had a negative impact on NC reputation
55%
HB2 has had a positive impact on NC reputation
19%
Has not made a difference
18%
Not sure
9%

Wording notes: directly comparable to the May wave

neutral — symmetric three-option construction

Bathrooms & facilitiesforced choicein a trend series
whether HB2 has made North Carolina safer

Do you think House Bill 2 has made North Carolina safer, or not?

HB2 has not made NC safer
50%
HB2 has made NC safer
29%
Not sure
21%

Wording notes: tests the bill's stated rationale; the safer share falls from 36 in May to 29 in August

neutral — direct test of the sponsors' safety claim, stated in both directions

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →