Suffolk University/Boston Globe Massachusetts Likely Voter Poll (September 2018) · Sep 13–17, 2018 · US: Massachusetts
Methodology
- Pollster
- Suffolk University academic
- Sponsor
- Suffolk University / The Boston Globe
- Commissioned by
- The Boston Globe
- Fielded
- Sep 13–17, 2018
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 500
- Sample frame
- probability RDD
- Mode
- telephone - live interviewer, landline and cell phone
- Margin of error
- +/-4.4 percentage points
- Weighting
- not disclosed
- Geography
- US: Massachusetts
- Base notes
- screened to voters very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2018 election for Governor and U.S. Senator
Sources
Verification note. Marginals and banner tables fetched directly from suffolk.edu; wording, counts and percentages read off the PDFs. Suffolk published no MOE statement in the marginals; the +/-4.4 figure is Ballotpedia's entry for this same fielding and is consistent with a simple-random-sample calculation at n=500. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Massachusetts Question 3, voted 2018-11-06 - the only statewide popular vote on transgender rights in U.S. history. Certified result: Yes (keep the gender-identity public accommodations law) 1,806,742 = 67.82%; No (repeal) 857,401 = 32.18%. This poll's 73.2 Yes overstated the certified Yes share by 5.4 points; two-way it is 80.8/19.2 against an actual 67.8/32.2, a margin error of roughly +26 in the pro-trans-rights direction - the largest error of any Question 3 poll located. || 73 keep / 17 repeal and field dates from a search-result summary citing Ballotpedia's poll table; the Ballotpedia page returned empty content on fetch. Sample size, MOE and exact wording missing. || Question wording and n/% read directly from the Suffolk marginals PDF (Q29). Margin of error not stated in the marginals document retrieved.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Massachusetts Question 3 ballot test - gender-identity public accommodations veto referendum
Question #3 is the Transgender Anti-Discrimination proposal. A YES VOTE would keep in place the current law, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender identity in places of public accommodation. A NO VOTE would repeal this provision of the public accommodation law. At this point, will you vote yes or no?
Yes (keep the law)
73.2%
No (repeal)
17.4%
Undecided
9.2%
Refused
0.2%
Wording notes: labels the measure 'the Transgender Anti-Discrimination proposal', a title that appeared on no ballot and frames a Yes vote as opposition to discrimination | states the consequence of both a yes and a no vote
tilts_affirming — the yes/no consequences are stated symmetrically, but Suffolk's label 'the Transgender Anti-Discrimination proposal' is not the measure's ballot title and casts a Yes vote as anti-discrimination - the most likely single source of this poll's large pro-Yes error
Subgroup figures (16)
