probability RDD
Suffolk University
Suffolk University/Boston Globe Massachusetts Likely Voter Poll (final pre-election wave, October 2018) · Oct 24–27, 2018 · US: Massachusetts
Methodology
- Pollster
- Suffolk University academic
- Sponsor
- Suffolk University / The Boston Globe
- Commissioned by
- The Boston Globe
- Fielded
- Oct 24–27, 2018
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 500
- Sample frame
- probability RDD
- Mode
- telephone - live interviewer, landline and cell phone
- Margin of error
- not disclosed in the marginals
- Weighting
- not disclosed
- Geography
- US: Massachusetts
- Base notes
- screened to voters very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2018 election for Governor and U.S. Senator
Sources
Verification note. Marginals and banner tables fetched directly from suffolk.edu; wording, counts and percentages read off the PDFs. Suffolk published no MOE statement in these documents. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Massachusetts Question 3, voted 2018-11-06 - the only statewide popular vote on transgender rights in U.S. history. Certified result: Yes (keep the gender-identity public accommodations law) 1,806,742 = 67.82%; No (repeal) 857,401 = 32.18%. This is the closest any pre-election poll came: 68.0 Yes / 27.8 No against a certified 67.82 / 32.18 - a 0.2-point error on the Yes share, though the two-way margin of +29.6 still trails the actual +35.6. Against the same house's September wave the Yes share fell 5.2 points while undecideds collapsed from 9.2 to 3.8, i.e. late deciders broke roughly 2-to-1 for repeal, which is the pattern that reconciles the earlier polling with the result. || Question wording and n/% read directly from the Suffolk marginals PDF (Q28). Final pre-election Suffolk read; actual 2018 result was 67.8% Yes / 32.2% No.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (1)
Massachusetts Question 3 ballot test - gender-identity public accommodations veto referendum
Question #3 is the Transgender Anti-Discrimination proposal. A YES VOTE would keep in place the current law, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender identity in places of public accommodation. A NO VOTE would repeal this provision of the public accommodation law. At this point, will you vote yes or no?
Yes (keep the law)
68%
No (repeal)
27.8%
Undecided
3.8%
Refused
0.4%
Wording notes: labels the measure 'the Transgender Anti-Discrimination proposal', a title that appeared on no ballot and frames a Yes vote as opposition to discrimination | states the consequence of both a yes and a no vote
tilts_affirming — wording identical to the September wave; the non-ballot label still casts Yes as anti-discrimination, though by late October the campaign had informed voters enough that the item nearly matched the certified result
Subgroup figures (16)