unknown
SRSurvey Research Center
KUHF/KHOU 2015 Houston Municipal Election Survey · Sep 25, 2015 – Oct 6, 2015 · US: Houston, Texas
Methodology
- Pollster
- Survey Research Center academic
- Sponsor
- News 88.7 (KUHF / Houston Public Media) and KHOU 11 News
- Commissioned by
- News 88.7 / KHOU 11 News
- Fielded
- Sep 25, 2015 – Oct 6, 2015
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 567
- Sample frame
- unknown
- Mode
- telephone - live interviewer; registration-based sample drawn from City of Houston registered-voter records, split between habitual municipal voters and other registered voters
- Margin of error
- +/- 4.1%
- Weighting
- weighted to represent the expected proportion of vote cast in November by race and ethnicity
- Geography
- US: Houston, Texas
- Base notes
- Registered voters in the City of Houston who reported they were either 'certain' or 'very likely' to vote in November 2015. The frame combined N=464 voters who had voted in two of the last three City of Houston municipal elections (2009, 2011, 2013) with N=103 registered voters who had not. HERO items are reported on a base of 565.
Sources
Verification note. Full topline (verbatim wording, frequencies and percentages for every item, plus the methodology paragraph, field dates, N and MOE) read directly off Houston Public Media's own poll page at houstonpublicmedia.org/news/polls/october-2015-houston-mayoral-poll/. The host 403s to some automated fetchers but returns HTTP 200 to a normal browser user-agent. This supersedes the earlier unverified DB record 'khou-11-houston-public-media_2015-10_houston-texas', which pointed only at the news write-up. ARITHMETIC NOTE: on the Super Bowl / Final Four follow-up the published cell counts (119+45+20+1) sum to 185, but the page's Total row reads 226; the percentages shown are consistent with a base of 185, so the Total row appears to be an error in the pollster's own table. Percentages are recorded exactly as published. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Houston Proposition 1 (the HERO referendum) was voted on November 3, 2015. Voters repealed the ordinance; the measure failed roughly 61 percent 'Against' to 39 percent 'For'. Exact certified vote totals were not retrieved in this session. || Full topline (verbatim wording, frequencies and percentages for every item, plus the methodology paragraph, field dates, N and MOE) read directly off Houston Public Media's own poll page at houstonpublicmedia.org/news/polls/october-2015-houston-mayoral-poll/. The host 403s to some automated fetchers but returns HTTP 200 to a normal browser user-agent. This supersedes the earlier unverified DB record 'khou-11-houston-public-media_2015-10_houston-texas', which pointed only at the news write-up. ARITHMETIC NOTE: on the Super Bowl / Final Four follow-up the published cell counts (119+45+20+1) sum to 185, but the page's Total row reads 226; the percentages shown are consistent with a base of 185, so the Total row appears to be an error in the pollster's own table. Percentages are recorded exactly as published. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Houston Proposition 1 - the referendum on the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance - was voted on November 3, 2015. Certified result (Harris County Elections Office cumulative report, November 11, 2015): Yes (keep HERO) 100,582 = 39.03%; No (repeal) 157,110 = 60.97%. Valid votes 257,692; turnout 27.45% of 979,401 registered voters. POLLING ERROR: this is the only public pre-election poll on the HERO referendum that could be located, and it missed badly. Its 43 Favor / 37 Oppose is a two-way split of 53.8 / 46.2 against a certified 39.03 / 60.97 - the Yes share was overstated by about 15 points and the sign of the margin was wrong. Two design features plausibly explain most of it: 18% were 'Unsure' with six weeks still to run, and the sample was drawn to over-represent habitual municipal voters (N=464 of 567) in an election whose turnout ultimately rose to 27.45%, well above a normal Houston municipal off-year. The pollster's own persuasion probes pointed at the mechanism - Bob Stein said publicly the arguments were worth seven to eight points - but the horse-race number never moved to match, and no later public poll was fielded to catch the shift.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (4)
favor/oppose the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO) as passed
Do you favor or oppose the Equal Rights Ordinance passed by the Houston City Council that would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender identity, race, national origin, age, military status, religion or disability?
Wording notes: lists gender identity inside a multi-class enumeration rather than singling it out | does not mention restrooms
neutral — both directions offered, an explicit 'Unsure' is available, and the ordinance is described in its own operative terms without either side's campaign framing
persuasion probe: would HERO supporters still support it given the restroom argument
Would you still support the City of Houston's Equal Rights Ordinance if you knew that the ordinance allows a man who identifies and dresses as a woman to use a woman's restrooms?
Wording notes: opponent-side framing adopted as fact ('allows a man who identifies and dresses as a woman') | asked only of prior supporters | one-sided probe with no matching counter-argument in the same item
loaded_terms — adopts the repeal campaign's characterization of transgender women as 'a man who identifies and dresses as a woman' and asserts as fact that the ordinance 'allows' the behavior; it is a deliberate one-sided persuasion probe, legitimate as design but not a neutral measure of opinion
Subgroup figures (4)
persuasion probe: $5,000 business fine framing
Would you still support the City of Houston's Equal Rights Ordinance if you knew that restaurants and any business open to the public can be fined $5,000 for refusing to allow a man who identifies and dresses as a woman to use the woman's restroom?
Wording notes: opponent-side framing adopted as fact | monetary penalty stated as certain | asked only of prior supporters
loaded_terms — stacks the repeal campaign's two strongest claims - the restroom characterization and a specific $5,000 fine on businesses - into a single one-sided probe; again a deliberate persuasion test rather than a neutral opinion measure
Subgroup figures (4)
persuasion probe: would HERO opponents still oppose given Super Bowl / Final Four withdrawal
Would you still oppose the City of Houston's Equal Rights Ordinance if you knew that the National Football League would withdraw the 2017 Super Bowl in Houston and the National College Athletic Association would withdraw playing the Final Four Basketball Tournament in Houston if the voters of Houston repealed the City's Equal Right Ordinance?
Wording notes: supporter-side economic threat stated as certain | asked only of prior opponents | mirror image of the restroom probe put to supporters
loaded_terms — asserts as fact that the NFL and NCAA would pull two named events, a contingency neither body had announced; it is the mirror image of the restroom probe and is designed as a persuasion test rather than a neutral measure
Subgroup figures (4)