unknown

Survey Research Center

News 88.7/KHOU 11 2015 Houston Runoff Election Poll · Dec 2015 – Dec 9, 2015 · US: Houston, Texas

Methodology

Pollster
Survey Research Center academic
Sponsor
News 88.7 (Houston Public Media) and KHOU 11 News
Commissioned by
News 88.7 / KHOU 11 News
Fielded
Dec 2015 – Dec 9, 2015
Population
likely voters
Sample size
469
Sample frame
unknown
Mode
telephone - live interviewer; registration-based sample of City of Houston registered voters who had voted in the November 2015 municipal election
Margin of error
+/- 4.5%
Weighting
weighted to represent the observed and expected proportion of vote cast in the December runoff election by race and ethnicity
Geography
US: Houston, Texas
Base notes
Registered voters in the City of Houston who voted in the November 2015 city election and who had already voted in, or were certain or very likely to vote in, the December 12 runoff.

Sources

Verification note. Full topline (verbatim wording, frequencies and percentages) and the methodology paragraph read directly off Houston Public Media's own poll page. FIELD DATES ARE NOT PUBLISHED: the pollster gives no interviewing dates. The window is bounded by the design - respondents had to have voted on November 3, 2015 and some had already voted early in the December 12 runoff, early voting having opened November 30 - and by the December 10, 2015 release; field_start/field_end are therefore approximate and date_precision is 'month'. This supersedes the earlier unverified DB records 'unknown_2015-11_houston-texas' and 'bob-stein_2015-12_houston-texas'. NO CROSSTABS: the page publishes marginal frequencies only, so no party breaks on the HERO items are available; party identification in the sample as a whole was 36% Democrat, 29% Republican, 26% Independent, 9% no answer. BALLOT BENCHMARK, VOTE-RECALL ITEM: the second question below is a recall of the actual November 3, 2015 vote. Excluding don't-know and refused, recalled vote was 34.8% For / 65.2% Against, against a real result of roughly 39% For / 61% Against - i.e. the sample over-reports having voted to repeal by about four points, the usual bandwagon direction. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Houston Proposition 1 (the HERO referendum) was voted on November 3, 2015. Voters repealed the ordinance; the measure failed roughly 61 percent 'Against' to 39 percent 'For'. Exact certified vote totals were not retrieved in this session. || Full topline (verbatim wording, frequencies and percentages) and the methodology paragraph read directly off Houston Public Media's own poll page. FIELD DATES ARE NOT PUBLISHED: the pollster gives no interviewing dates. The window is bounded by the design - respondents had to have voted on November 3, 2015 and some had already voted early in the December 12 runoff, early voting having opened November 30 - and by the December 10, 2015 release; field_start/field_end are therefore approximate and date_precision is 'month'. This supersedes the earlier unverified DB records 'unknown_2015-11_houston-texas' and 'bob-stein_2015-12_houston-texas'. NO CROSSTABS: the page publishes marginal frequencies only, so no party breaks on the HERO items are available; party identification in the sample as a whole was 36% Democrat, 29% Republican, 26% Independent, 9% no answer. BALLOT BENCHMARK, VOTE-RECALL ITEM: the second question below is a recall of the actual November 3, 2015 vote. Excluding don't-know and refused, recalled vote was 34.8% For / 65.2% Against, against a real result of roughly 39% For / 61% Against - i.e. the sample over-reports having voted to repeal by about four points, the usual bandwagon direction. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Houston Proposition 1 - the referendum on the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance - was voted on November 3, 2015. Certified result (Harris County Elections Office cumulative report, November 11, 2015): Yes (keep HERO) 100,582 = 39.03%; No (repeal) 157,110 = 60.97%. Valid votes 257,692; turnout 27.45% of 979,401 registered voters. POLLING ERROR ON THE RECALL ITEM: excluding don't-know and refused, recalled vote was 145 For / 272 Against = 34.77% / 65.23%, against a certified 39.03% / 60.97%. The sample over-reports having voted to repeal by about 4.3 points on each side - the ordinary bandwagon direction, and a useful size estimate for recall bias on a contested trans-rights ballot measure.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (2)

Nondiscriminationsupport/opposein a trend series
support for a hypothetical replacement HERO with gender identity removed

Would you support Houston Equal Rights Ordinance that would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation, race, national origin, age, military status, religion or disability, but would not include gender identity - that is not allow men who identify and dress as a woman to use a women's restroom?

Against
49%
For
35%
Don't Know
10%
Refused
6%

Wording notes: equates removing gender identity with a restroom rule | opponent-side characterization of trans women | asks about a hypothetical ordinance that did not exist

double_barreled — a single for/against answer has to cover two distinct propositions - dropping gender identity from the protected classes, and a restroom exclusion - and the gloss 'that is not allow men who identify and dress as a woman to use a women's restroom' both adopts the repeal campaign's characterization and treats the two as equivalent

Nondiscriminationforced choicein a trend series
recalled vote on Houston Proposition 1 (HERO), November 3 2015

How did you vote on the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance? Did you vote for or against the Equal Rights Ordinance that would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender identity, race, national origin, age, military status, religion, or disability?

Against
58%
For
31%
Don't Know
6%
Refused
5%

Wording notes: retrospective vote recall, subject to the usual over-report of the winning side

neutral — describes the ordinance in its own operative terms and asks only what the respondent actually did; the measurement problem here is recall error, not wording

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →