probability RDD
TMThe MassINC Polling Group
WBUR Poll - Massachusetts 2018 General Election (September wave) · Sep 17–21, 2018 · US: Massachusetts
Methodology
- Pollster
- The MassINC Polling Group independent
- Sponsor
- WBUR
- Commissioned by
- WBUR
- Fielded
- Sep 17–21, 2018
- Population
- likely voters
- Sample size
- 506
- Sample frame
- probability RDD
- Mode
- telephone - live interviewer, landline and cell phone, conventional registration-based sampling
- Margin of error
- ±4.4 percentage points
- Weighting
- not disclosed
- Geography
- US: Massachusetts
- Base notes
- likely voters in the November 2018 general election
Sources
Verification note. Topline and crosstab PDFs fetched directly from media.wbur.org. Note a discrepancy inside the pollster's own materials: the topline header and the crosstab unweighted-count row both say 506, while the crosstab page header says 500; 506 is used here. BALLOT BENCHMARK: Massachusetts Question 3, voted 2018-11-06, certified Yes (keep the law) 1,806,742 = 67.82%, No (repeal) 857,401 = 32.18%. This poll's ballot test of 71/21 overstated the Yes share by 3.2 points and produced a two-way margin of +50 against an actual +35.6. || 71% yes / 21% no / 10% undecided and the September 17-21, 2018 field dates retrieved from search-result summaries of the WBUR story; sample size and margin of error were not retrieved, and the reported figures sum to 102 in the source summary. Question 3 subsequently passed 67.8% to 32.2% on November 6, 2018. || 71 yes / 21 no and field dates from search-result summary of the WBUR write-up; the WBUR article and the MassINC topline were not fetched in this session. Sample size, MOE and exact wording missing. || wording and percentages read directly from the WBUR/MassINC topline PDF; the poll deliberately carried a plain-language validation item after the ballot-language item to test whether voters understood the yes/no direction || WORDING RECOVERY SWEEP. Both items transcribed character-for-character from the MassINC topline PDF for the September 17-21, 2018 WBUR poll, including the interviewer instructions. The database previously carried a WBUR story paraphrase.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (2)
Massachusetts Question 3 ballot test - gender-identity public accommodations veto referendum
Now I would like to ask you about several questions that will be on the ballot this November.
There will be a measure on the November ballot asking voters to approve a 2016 state law dealing with public accommodations for transgender people. A "yes" vote would keep in place the current law, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender identity in places of public accommodation. A "no" vote would repeal this provision of the public accommodation law. If the election for this measure were held today, would you vote yes or no? REREAD FULL DESCRIPTION OF YES AND NO VOTE, IF REQUESTED. IF UNDECIDED: How are you leaning as of today?
Yes (keep the law)
71%
No (repeal)
21%
Don't Know / Undecided (not read)
8%
Wording notes: explicit yes/no consequence statement for both sides | leaner probe pushes undecideds
neutral — both the yes and no consequences are stated in parallel and in the ballot's own terms; no evaluative adjectives on either side
Subgroup figures (13)
underlying attitude toward transgender access to public accommodations, asked outside the ballot frame
Just to be clear, do you think transgender people should be allowed to use public accommodations consistent with their gender identities, or not?
Yes they should
68%
No they should not
21%
Don't know / undecided
10%
Wording notes: 'just to be clear' signals it is a validity check on the preceding ballot-test item | assumes respondent knows what 'public accommodations' means
neutral — plain two-way construction with the negative option stated explicitly; placement directly after the ballot test invites a consistency effect, which the pollster appears to have intended as a deliberate comparison
Subgroup figures (13)