probability panel
UNH Survey Center
Pine Tree State Poll (States of Opinion Project) · Mar 20–24, 2025 · US: Maine
Methodology
- Pollster
- UNH Survey Center academic
- Sponsor
- University of New Hampshire Survey Center
- Fielded
- Mar 20–24, 2025
- Population
- adults
- Sample size
- 1,057
- Sample frame
- probability panel
- Panel
- Pine Tree State Panel
- Mode
- online - probability-based Pine Tree State Panel (recruited by phone, text-to-web, or mail-to-web from randomly selected phone numbers or addresses), supplemented by text-to-web invitations
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.0 percent
- Weighting
- weighted by respondent sex, age, education, and region of the state to American Community Survey targets
- Geography
- US: Maine
- Base notes
- 914 Pine Tree State Panel members plus 143 Maine residents recruited by text-message invitation to the online survey; item Ns 1,057 / 1,053
Sources
Verification note. Toplines (64/29/7) and party breaks read from Spectrum News Maine's write-up. The UNH topline PDF returned 403 in this session, so the verbatim question wording and the survey mode are missing. Fielded during the February-March 2025 clash between Gov. Janet Mills and the Trump administration over a Maine high school trans athlete. || Question wording taken verbatim from the crosstab table headers in the release PDF; total percentages taken from the narrative text and the accompanying chart values. Party figures are the combined 'should be allowed' figures reported in the narrative, not the four-point breakdown. Per-item Ns not assigned because the PDF text layer offsets the statewide row relative to its table header.
Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.
Questions asked (3)
transgender women/girls in women's sports
Thinking about transgender female athletes, meaning athletes who were male at birth but who currently identify as female, do you think they should or should not be allowed to compete in women's sports?
Definitely should not
53%
Probably should
16%
Definitely should
12%
Probably should not
11%
Don't know/Not sure
7%
NET should not be allowed 64%NET should be allowed 29%
Wording notes: defines transgender female as 'male at birth but who currently identify as female' | asked in the context of a Trump executive order discussed elsewhere in the release
neutral — symmetric should/should not construction with a definitional gloss that is descriptive rather than pejorative
Subgroup figures (3)
transgender men in men's sports
Thinking about transgender male athletes, meaning athletes who were female at birth but who currently identify as male, do you think they should or should not be allowed to compete in men's sports?
Definitely should not
38%
Probably should
24%
Definitely should
17%
Probably should not
12%
Don't know/Not sure
8%
NET should not be allowed 51%NET should be allowed 41%
Wording notes: mirror-image item to the trans female athletes question, allowing a symmetry test
neutral — symmetric should/should not construction
whether trans-athlete policy should be set federally or by states
President Trump recently signed an executive order banning transgender female athletes from competing in women's sports. However, some states, such as California, Minnesota, and Maine, allow transgender females to compete in women sports. Do you believe policy concerning transgender female athletes should be made at the federal level or should be left up to states to decide or do you not have an opinion on this?
Should be made at the federal level
50%
Left up to states to decide
41%
Don't know/No opinion
9%
Wording notes: names Trump's executive order in the stem | names California, Minnesota and Maine as permissive states
unclear — the stem imports a partisan cue (Trump's order) and singles out three Democratic-run states, which may prime federalism responses along partisan lines, though the two policy alternatives themselves are stated evenly
Subgroup figures (3)