probability panelsurvey of transgender people, not of the public

Washington Post/KFF

KFF/The Washington Post Trans Survey · Nov 10, 2022 – Dec 2022 · US national

Not a public-opinion poll. This surveys transgender people about their own lives, mostly through nonprobability community samples. It describes a population and is not comparable with polls of the general public.

Methodology

Pollster
Washington Post/KFF media
Sponsor
KFF and The Washington Post
Commissioned by
The Washington Post
Fielded
Nov 10, 2022 – Dec 2022
Population
adults
Sample size
1,338
Sample frame
probability panel
Panel
SSRS Opinion Panel; Gallup Panel; NORC AmeriSpeak
Mode
online and by telephone, self-administered online plus live-interviewer phone for panel members who do not use the internet
Margin of error
plus or minus 7 percentage points for the trans adult sample; plus or minus 4 percentage points for the cisgender adult sample (both including design effect)
Weighting
Trans adults weighted separately to the national trans adult population using CDC BRFSS and the Williams Institute's small-area analysis of BRFSS, on age, education, race/ethnicity and region. Full adult sample weighted to the Census Bureau's 2021 Current Population Survey on sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region, plus civic engagement from the CPS September 2019 Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement and frequency of internet use from Pew's NPORS.
Geography
US national
Base notes
Two samples combined: 515 U.S. adults who identify as trans and 823 cisgender U.S. adults. Trans sample recruited from three probability panels - Gallup Panel (252), NORC AmeriSpeak (146), SSRS Opinion Panel (85) - plus callbacks to prior KFF (29) and SSRS Omnibus (3) LGBT-identified respondents. Cisgender comparison sample from the SSRS Opinion Panel, 784 online and 39 by phone. 'Total adults' rows (n=1,338) are the two samples weighted together to represent all U.S. adults; 'Total trans adults' rows (n=515) represent U.S. trans adults.

Sources

Verification note. All wording, response options, percentages and the full methodology block read directly from the KFF/Washington Post topline PDF. This poll may overlap with a KFF-focused sweep; it is included here because The Washington Post is a co-sponsor and co-designer. Only the policy and attitude items are recorded; the large battery of items about trans respondents' own health care, discrimination, mental health and life experiences is not itemized here. Party breakdowns are not published in this topline.

Figures below are transcribed from these documents. Where they disagree with the source, the source governs.

Questions asked (9)

Identity beliefsforced choicein a trend series
whether gender is determined by sex assigned at birth

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right? (rotate 1-2/2-1)

Whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth
57%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth
43%

Wording notes: the two statements are rotated, so neither is systematically presented first | 'even if neither is exactly right' explicitly licenses respondents who hold an intermediate view to pick the nearer one

neutral — The two statements are parallel in construction and length, both use the same 'sex they were assigned at birth' phrasing, and rotation removes primacy effects. The 'even if neither is exactly right' preface is good practice for a forced binary on a contested concept.

Subgroup figures (2)

lgbtq_status

GroupWhether someone is a man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birthSomeone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth
Total trans adults20%79%
General acceptanceforced choicein a trend series
whether Americans have become more or less accepting of trans and nonbinary people over ten years

Would you say people in the U.S. are generally (more) accepting or generally (less) accepting of people who are (INSERT ITEM) than they were ten years ago, or are they about the same? (scramble items a-c/rotate items in parentheses)

Trans - More accepting
61%
Nonbinary or gender non-conforming - More accepting
59%
Nonbinary or gender non-conforming - About the same
26%
Trans - About the same
24%
Trans - Less accepting
15%
Nonbinary or gender non-conforming - Less accepting
15%

Wording notes: measures perceived social change, not the respondent's own attitude | 'more'/'less' rotated and items scrambled

neutral — Both directions rotated, an explicit 'about the same' middle category offered, and items scrambled. The item measures perception of societal change rather than the respondent's own view, which is what it claims to do.

Subgroup figures (3)

lgbtq_status

GroupTrans - More acceptingTrans - Less acceptingTrans - About the same
Total trans adults55%23%21%
School policyforced choicein a trend series
appropriateness of teachers discussing trans identity, by grade level

Do you think it is (appropriate) or (inappropriate) for teachers to discuss trans identity in public schools with students in (INSERT ITEM)? (rotate text in parentheses)

Kindergarten to third grade - Inappropriate
77%
Elementary school grades 4 and 5 - Inappropriate
70%
High school grades 9-12 - Appropriate
64%
Middle school grades 6-8 - Inappropriate
52%
Middle school grades 6-8 - Appropriate
48%
High school grades 9-12 - Inappropriate
36%
Elementary school grades 4 and 5 - Appropriate
30%
Kindergarten to third grade - Appropriate
23%

Wording notes: asks each grade band separately, which surfaces a steep age gradient rather than collapsing it | 'discuss trans identity' is left undefined - it could mean anything from acknowledging a trans classmate to formal curriculum | no 'depends' or 'don't know' offered

neutral — Rotating 'appropriate'/'inappropriate' and splitting by grade band is careful design, and the grade split is what makes the result informative - total-adult support runs from 23% at K-3 to 64% at grades 9-12. The undefined scope of 'discuss trans identity' is a real ambiguity, but it is not slanted in either direction.

Subgroup figures (4)

lgbtq_status

GroupKindergarten to third grade - AppropriateElementary school grades 4 and 5 - AppropriateMiddle school grades 6-8 - AppropriateHigh school grades 9-12 - Appropriate
Total trans adults64%71%82%87%
Nondiscriminationsupport/opposein a trend series
laws prohibiting discrimination against trans people, by domain

Do you (support) or (oppose) laws prohibiting discrimination against trans people (INSERT ITEMS)? (scramble items c-g/ask a & b first/rotate items in parentheses)

Support 497%195% Oppose

Wording notes: domain-by-domain measurement rather than a single Equality Act item | 'support'/'oppose' rotated; items c-g scrambled with a and b fixed first

neutral — Standard symmetric support/oppose with rotation, applied separately across seven domains. Splitting by domain reveals that support is broad and fairly flat (65-74%) even as the same respondents oppose trans participation in sports and youth medical care - a contrast the design makes visible rather than obscuring.

Subgroup figures (2)

lgbtq_status

GroupBy medical professionals - SupportIn the U.S. military - Support
Total trans adults83%76%
Youth medical caresupport/opposein a trend series
access to gender-affirming counseling and puberty blockers for trans children aged 10-14

Do you (support) or (oppose) trans children between the ages of 10 and 14 having access to (ITEM) under medical supervision? (rotate items in parentheses)

Support 93%105% Oppose

Wording notes: specifies 'under medical supervision', which most polls on this topic omit | separates counseling from puberty blockers rather than bundling them | narrow age band (10-14) stated explicitly

neutral — This is among the more carefully constructed youth-medical items in the corpus: it names a specific age band, states that care would be under medical supervision, separates counseling from puberty-blocking medication, and rotates support/oppose. The result - 62% support for counseling versus 31% for puberty blockers at ages 10-14 - is only interpretable because the interventions were not bundled.

Subgroup figures (2)

lgbtq_status

GroupGender-affirming counseling or therapy - SupportPuberty-blocking medication - Support
Total trans adults79%69%
Youth medical caresupport/opposein a trend series
access to gender-affirming counseling and hormonal treatments for trans teenagers aged 15-17

Do you (support) or (oppose) trans teenagers, between the ages of 15 and 17, having access to (ITEM) under medical supervision? (rotate items in parentheses)

Support 108%91% Oppose

Wording notes: specifies 'under medical supervision' | separates counseling from hormonal treatments | narrow age band (15-17) stated explicitly

neutral — Same careful construction as Q31, with the age band raised. The paired design shows a real age effect on hormones (31% support puberty blockers at 10-14 versus 42% support hormonal treatments at 15-17), which a single undifferentiated 'medical transition for minors' item would hide.

Subgroup figures (2)

lgbtq_status

GroupGender-affirming counseling or therapy - SupportHormonal treatments - Support
Total trans adults79%75%
Sportsforced choicein a trend series
trans women and girls competing in women's and girls' sports, by level

Thinking about trans women and girls - people whose sex was classified as male at birth but who currently identify as female -

Thinking about trans women and girls - people whose sex was classified as male at birth but who currently identify as female - do you think trans women and girls should or should not be allowed to compete in sports with other women and girls at each of the following levels. (rotate items in order ABCD/DCBA)

Should be allowed 139%258% Should not be allowed

Wording notes: same stem as the Washington Post-UMD May 2022 item, but with no explicit 'no opinion' option offered, which raises both the allowed and not-allowed shares | asks only about trans women and girls, never about trans men and boys | item order rotated forward and backward

neutral — Definition and response options are symmetric and item order is rotated in both directions. The important caveat is comparability rather than bias: because this version does not print a no-opinion column, its percentages are not directly comparable to the Post-UMD May 2022 fielding that used the same stem but reported 15-17% with no opinion.

Subgroup figures (4)

lgbtq_status

GroupProfessional sports - Should be allowedCollege sports - Should be allowedHigh school sports - Should be allowedYouth sports - Should be allowed
Total trans adults70%69%69%71%
Sports4-point scalein a trend series
concern about mental health of trans girls excluded from youth sports

If trans girls are not allowed to compete with other girls in youth sports, how concerned, if at all, are you that the mental health of trans girls will suffer?

Somewhat concerned
36%
Not too concerned
27%
Very concerned
19%
Not at all concerned
18%
Very/Somewhat concerned (NET) 54%Not too/Not at all concerned (NET) 46%

Wording notes: 'how concerned, if at all' adds an explicit permission to say not concerned, unlike the Post-UMD May 2022 version | conditional framing about a counterfactual

neutral — Balanced four-point concern scale; the added 'if at all' is a small improvement over the Post-UMD May 2022 wording. Unlike the Post-UMD version, this fielding does not pair it with the competitive-advantage counter-item, so the argument against exclusion appears here without its counterweight - though it comes after the participation measure and so cannot prime it.

Subgroup figures (2)

lgbtq_status

GroupVery/Somewhat concerned (NET)Very concerned
Total trans adults73%44%
Contact & populationmultiple responsein a trend series
cisgender adults personally knowing a trans person

SHOW TO ALL: Now we have a few questions we will use to describe the people who took part in our survey...

Aside from acquaintances, do you personally know anyone who is trans? (please select all that apply)

No
57%
Yes, someone else
28%
Yes, a close friend
10%
Yes, a family member
9%
Yes (NET) 43%

Wording notes: asked of the cisgender sample only (n=823) | 'Aside from acquaintances' sets the same higher threshold as the Post-UMD May 2022 version

neutral — Descriptive contact item with exhaustive options; placement at the end of the instrument is better practice than the Post-UMD May 2022 placement immediately before the acceptance item.

Every figure on this page is transcribed from the source linked above. How to read this data →