Transgender Polling Archive

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Every question, with its verbatim wording, its toplines, and a link to the pollster’s own release. Filters combine; the address updates so any view can be shared.

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7 questions from 2 polls

Blueprintfor BlueprintPolitical saliencedata flagNov 6–7, 2024
trans issues as a reason not to vote for Harris - paired-choice testing of 25 criticisms

Respondents were shown pairs drawn from 25 distinct criticisms of Kamala Harris and asked which reason seemed more compelling; exact instruction text not published.

Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class

Net score, comparison item: 'Inflation was too high under the Biden-Harris Administration' (ranked 1st)
24%
Net score, comparison item: 'Too many immigrants illegally crossed the border under the Biden-Harris Administration' (ranked 2nd)
23%
Net paired-choice score, 'Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class' (ranked 3rd of 25)
17%
Net score, comparison item: 'The debt rose too much under the Biden-Harris Administration'
13%
Net score, comparison item: 'Kamala Harris would be too similar to Joe Biden'
12%
Net score, comparison item: 'Kamala Harris is too pro-Israel'
-22%
Net score, comparison item: 'Kamala Harris isn't similar enough to Joe Biden'
-24%
Net score, comparison item: 'Kamala Harris is too conservative'
-27%
Sample
3,262 2024 voters · +/- 2.1 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 2 subgroup figures

Base: 3,262 national and swing-state voters including a 1,883 swing-state oversample; 757 'swing voters' analyzed separately

Wording notes: explicitly pits 'transgender issues' against 'helping the middle class' - a zero-sum constructionattributes a focus to the candidate rather than asking respondents to evaluate a policyscores are net paired-choice values, not percentages agreeing
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Selected as the more compelling reason
  • Not selected
Blueprintfor BlueprintPolitical salienceparaphraseddata flagNov 6–7, 2024
swing-voter belief that Harris supported taxpayer-funded transition surgery for undocumented immigrants

Battery asking swing voters whether Harris held various positions during the 2024 campaign, used by Blueprint to measure misperception of her platform.

Kamala Harris supports taxpayer funding for transgender surgeries for undocumented immigrants

Sample
asked of a subset: Decisive swing voters who chose Trumpfull poll: 3,262 2024 voters · +/- 2.1 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 1 subgroup figure

Base: 3,262 national and swing-state voters including a 1,883 swing-state oversample; 757 'swing voters' analyzed separately

Wording notes: measures belief about a candidate's position, not the respondent's own policy viewthe position described tracks the central claim of the Trump campaign's 'Kamala is for they/them' advertising
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Believed Harris held this position
  • Did not believe Harris held this position
BlueprintPolitical saliencedata flagNov 6–7, 2024
accuracy of the critique that Democrats want to promote transgender ideology

Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is:

Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is: - Democrats want to promote transgender ideology

Extremely accurate
39%
Not at all accurate
28%
Somewhat accurate
18%
Very accurate
15%
Total accurate 72%Total not accurate 28%
Sample
3,262 2024 voters (registered national and swing-state voters who reported voting) · ±2.1 percentage points per Blueprint's web write-ups; the published topline PDF states ±3.7 on every page - the two figures conflict and Blueprint does not reconcile them
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 2 subgroup figures

Base: Includes a swing-state oversample of 1,883 voters; a later Blueprint release describes 3,623 total voters in targeted swing states and 757 swing voters. Key results are reported for 'swing voters who chose Trump'.

Wording notes: 'transgender ideology' is a term of art from the political right, presented here without quotation marks or attributionthe battery contains only critiques of Democrats - no counterbalancing critiques of Republicans
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Very accurate
  • Somewhat accurate
  • Not very accurate
  • Not at all accurate
BlueprintPolitical saliencedata flagNov 6–7, 2024
accuracy of the critique that Democrats have extreme ideas about race and gender

Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is:

Below are some critiques of the Democratic Party, for each say how accurate you think the critique is: - Democrats have extreme ideas about race and gender

Net accurate
24%
Sample
3,262 2024 voters (registered national and swing-state voters who reported voting) · ±2.1 percentage points per Blueprint's web write-ups; the published topline PDF states ±3.7 on every page - the two figures conflict and Blueprint does not reconcile them
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 2 subgroup figures

Base: Includes a swing-state oversample of 1,883 voters; a later Blueprint release describes 3,623 total voters in targeted swing states and 757 swing voters. Key results are reported for 'swing voters who chose Trump'.

Wording notes: 'extreme' supplied by the pollsterbundles race and gender into one item
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Very accurate
  • Somewhat accurate
  • Not very accurate
  • Not at all accurate
BlueprintPolitical saliencedata flagNov 6–7, 2024
belief that Harris supported taxpayer-funded transition surgery for undocumented immigrants in prison

Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position:

Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position: - Using taxpayer dollars to pay for transgender surgeries for undocumented immigrants in prison

Kamala Harris supports this policy
60%
Kamala Harris does not support this policy
40%
Sample
3,262 2024 voters (registered national and swing-state voters who reported voting) · ±2.1 percentage points per Blueprint's web write-ups; the published topline PDF states ±3.7 on every page - the two figures conflict and Blueprint does not reconcile them
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 2 subgroup figures

Base: Includes a swing-state oversample of 1,883 voters; a later Blueprint release describes 3,623 total voters in targeted swing states and 757 swing voters. Key results are reported for 'swing voters who chose Trump'.

Wording notes: this is the policy named in the Trump campaign's "Kamala is for they/them" advertisingthe item restates the ad's claim in the ad's own termsno don't-know option is offered, forcing a guess
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Kamala Harris supports this policy
  • Kamala Harris does not support this policy
BlueprintParental rightsdata flagNov 6–7, 2024
belief that Harris supported letting minors transition without informing parents

Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position:

Below are some positions that Kamala Harris could hold. For each, say whether you believe Harris holds that position: - Allowing children under 18 to transition genders without informing their parents

Kamala Harris supports this policy
60%
Kamala Harris does not support this policy
40%
Sample
3,262 2024 voters (registered national and swing-state voters who reported voting) · ±2.1 percentage points per Blueprint's web write-ups; the published topline PDF states ±3.7 on every page - the two figures conflict and Blueprint does not reconcile them
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 1 subgroup figure

Base: Includes a swing-state oversample of 1,883 voters; a later Blueprint release describes 3,623 total voters in targeted swing states and 757 swing voters. Key results are reported for 'swing voters who chose Trump'.

Wording notes: 'transition genders' without specifying social or medical transitionno don't-know option
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Kamala Harris supports this policy
  • Kamala Harris does not support this policy
BlueprintPolitical saliencedata flagNov 6–7, 2024
relative importance of 'focused on cultural issues like transgender issues' as a reason not to vote for Harris

Respondents were presented with random pairs of potential reasons to vote against Harris and asked to select which reason they found more compelling.

Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class

"Inflation was too high under the Biden-Harris Administration" - selected 74% of the time, relative importance
24%
"Too many immigrants illegally crossed the border under the Biden-Harris Administration" - relative importance
23%
Relative importance score (points above the average criticism)
17%
Sample
3,262 2024 voters (registered national and swing-state voters who reported voting) · ±2.1 percentage points per Blueprint's web write-ups; the published topline PDF states ±3.7 on every page - the two figures conflict and Blueprint does not reconcile them
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national plus swing-state oversample
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 1 subgroup figure

Base: Includes a swing-state oversample of 1,883 voters; a later Blueprint release describes 3,623 total voters in targeted swing states and 757 swing voters. Key results are reported for 'swing voters who chose Trump'.

Wording notes: MaxDiff-style pairwise design - the reported number is a relative importance score, not a percentage of respondentsall 25 items are criticisms of Harris; there is no positive or pro-Harris item in the pool
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Selected as the more compelling reason
  • Not selected

Figures transcribed from public sources; each links to the original release. How to read this data →