Explore the polling

[Third Way describes items on how much respondents have heard about transgender issues recently, which party they trust more to handle transgender issues, and which party is more extreme on these issues]

Base: Accompanied by two in-person ethnographic focus groups in Atlanta and four virtual focus groups among battleground-state swing voters, all in February 2025.

prohibiting medical providers from providing gender-affirming health care to anyone of any age, including adults

Base: Accompanied by two in-person ethnographic focus groups in Atlanta and four virtual focus groups among battleground-state swing voters, all in February 2025.

[Third Way describes the item as asking about] an elected official that supported prohibiting access to transgender health care in federally funded programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and TRICARE for patients under the age of 19

Base: Accompanied by two in-person ethnographic focus groups in Atlanta and four virtual focus groups among battleground-state swing voters, all in February 2025.

I personally support transgender health care for patients under the age of 19 and do not believe that the government should block federally-funded insurance programs from providing coverage for that care. OR I do not personally support transgender health care for patients under the age of 19 but do not believe that the government should block federally-funded insurance programs from providing coverage for that care. OR I do not personally support transgender health care for patients under the age of 19 and believe that the government should block federally-funded insurance programs from providing coverage for that care.

Base: Accompanied by two in-person ethnographic focus groups in Atlanta and four virtual focus groups among battleground-state swing voters, all in February 2025.

Regardless of how we feel personally about the issue, parents of transgender young people should have the right to make personal medical decisions with their families and their doctors just like every other parent... Politicians should be focused on getting things in this country back on track, not messing with Medicare and Medicaid... America was founded on the basic principle of freedom, and that freedom should be for everyone.

[Third Way reports post-message results after respondents heard a three-pronged argument combining parental rights, economic priorities, and a freedom frame]

Base: Accompanied by two in-person ethnographic focus groups in Atlanta and four virtual focus groups among battleground-state swing voters, all in February 2025.

a policy that blocks all federal dollars from flowing to any hospital or hospital system that offers any transgender health care to patients under the age of 19

Politicians should be focused on issues that affect all Americans, like fixing the economy and addressing inflation instead of cutting federal funding for health care providers and raising health care costs for all patients; OR These federal funding cuts are necessary in order to bring down government spending and prevent taxpayer dollars from being used in elective procedures that young people may come to regret.

Base: Accompanied by two in-person ethnographic focus groups in Atlanta and four virtual focus groups among battleground-state swing voters, all in February 2025.

[Third Way describes items asking how much respondents had heard about transgender issues in the past few months, and whether they want more, fewer, or the same number of laws relating to transgender people in their state]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes items asking whether respondents support allowing transgender youth to: seek counseling from a therapist; dress in ways that align with their gender identity; use pronouns that align with their gender identity; use restrooms in public places designated for the gender with which they identify; use school restrooms and locker rooms designated for the gender with which they identify]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes two framings: (a) banning health care professionals from providing gender-affirming care for trans youth; (b) allowing parents of a trans child and medical professionals to make decisions about it]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes items on: making gender reassignment surgery illegal for a trans person under the age of 18; allowing parents to approve gender reassignment surgery for their child if a doctor agrees; banning hormone therapy and puberty-delaying medication for transgender people under 18; allowing transgender youth to take doctor-prescribed medication with parental consent]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes items asking how much respondents were bothered by consequences of a ban, including preventing parents from getting mental health support for their child, jail time for parents, jail time for health care professionals, and CPS investigations of parents]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes a three-option item separating personal support for gender-affirming care for under-18s from belief that the government should ban it]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes items on whether a candidate's support for banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth makes respondents more or less likely to support them, and on whether they would only vote for a candidate who opposes or supports criminalization]

Base: Accompanied by two virtual focus groups with battleground-state swing voters (Oct. 2) and two in-person persuasion conversation groups in Detroit (Oct. 3).

[Third Way describes the item as asking whether respondents had recently read or heard about transgender issues; 89% reported hearing 'a lot or some']

Base: Plus an oversample of 400 battleground congressional district voters. The same project included two in-person ethnographic focus groups among Democratic base voters in the Philadelphia area and four focus groups among swing voters.

[Third Way describes the item as asking about] a national policy protecting transgender people from discrimination

Base: Plus an oversample of 400 battleground congressional district voters. The same project included two in-person ethnographic focus groups among Democratic base voters in the Philadelphia area and four focus groups among swing voters.

[Three differently framed versions of the same policy, described by Third Way as:] (a) banning health care professionals from providing gender-affirming care to youth (b) whether the parents of a 15-year-old transgender child should be allowed to help their child receive gender-affirming care (c) banning parents from getting their child gender-affirming care

Base: Plus an oversample of 400 battleground congressional district voters. The same project included two in-person ethnographic focus groups among Democratic base voters in the Philadelphia area and four focus groups among swing voters.

[Two differently framed versions of the same policy, described by Third Way as:] (a) requiring transgender student-athletes to compete on teams that match their biological sex (b) a ban on transgender youth competing on teams that match their gender identity

Base: Plus an oversample of 400 battleground congressional district voters. The same project included two in-person ethnographic focus groups among Democratic base voters in the Philadelphia area and four focus groups among swing voters.

We also asked voters specifically about the House Republicans' "Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act," which would ban transgender people from playing on girls' sports teams at any age or level.

[Third Way describes the items as asking how much respondents were bothered by specific enforcement requirements associated with the House Republicans' "Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act"]

Base: Plus an oversample of 400 battleground congressional district voters. The same project included two in-person ethnographic focus groups among Democratic base voters in the Philadelphia area and four focus groups among swing voters.

[Third Way describes the item as asking whether respondents are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports banning transgender student-athletes from participating in sports that align with their gender identity, or whether it has no impact]

Base: Plus an oversample of 400 battleground congressional district voters. The same project included two in-person ethnographic focus groups among Democratic base voters in the Philadelphia area and four focus groups among swing voters.

[Third Way describes the item as asking] who should be responsible for making decisions about transgender youth's participation in sports

Base: Part of a multi-round project that also included qualitative research; Third Way does not publish the qualitative group composition for this round.

The issue of transgender student-athletes is complicated and should not be up to politicians to decide. These decisions should be left to parents and schools who know the situation best. OR This is an important issue, and we need politicians to pass laws to protect non-transgender students from having to compete against someone of the opposite sex.

Base: Part of a multi-round project that also included qualitative research; Third Way does not publish the qualitative group composition for this round.

Parents of transgender youth should be able to make the decisions that are best for their children without politicians interfering. OR Because of political correctness, parents have no say when transgender youth join their kids' sports teams, even when the transgender person has a clear, unfair advantage.

Base: Part of a multi-round project that also included qualitative research; Third Way does not publish the qualitative group composition for this round.

[Third Way describes the item as asking] whether a candidate's support for laws banning transgender youth from participating in sports consistent with their gender identity would make them more or less likely to vote for that policymaker

Base: Part of a multi-round project that also included qualitative research; Third Way does not publish the qualitative group composition for this round.

[Third Way describes the item as asking respondents to name first or second priorities among issues, including] laws related to gay and transgender people

Base: Part of a multi-round project that also included qualitative research; Third Way does not publish the qualitative group composition for this round.