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42 questions from 7 polls

Data for ProgressPolitical salienceMay 15, 2026 – Jun 21, 2026
a ban on transgender women in women's sports as a reason to vote for a Democrat (select up to three)

Which of these policies would make you definitely vote for a Democratic candidate in an upcoming election? Please select up to three options.

Ban transgender women from playing women's sports
10%
Sample
5,809 likely voters · +/-3 (full sample); higher for subgroups
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 1 subgroup figure

Base: Pooled across five surveys fielded May 15-June 21, 2026 (weighted N=5,809). 'Swing voters' (weighted N=447) are identified by Data for Progress's own scoring. The item is one of 16 options in a 'select up to three' battery (topline item [34]).

Wording notes: select up to threetests the policy as a reason to vote for Democrats, not the respondent's view of itonly the restrictive direction of the policy is offered
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Raise taxes on the wealthy
  • Nothing would make me definitely vote for a Democratic candidate
  • Create a Medicare for All health care system
  • Raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour
  • Restrict private utility companies from passing unreasonable costs on to customers
  • Invest in building new affordable housing
  • Ban artificial intelligence from setting prices or wages based on personal data
  • Stop providing military aid and weapons to Israel
  • Increase border security
  • Increase protections for abortion
  • Ban transgender women from playing women's sports
  • Increase oil and gas drilling
  • Increase funding for police officers
  • Invest in a nationwide universal child care program
  • Require two weeks of paid time off for all full-time workers
  • Some other action not on this list would make me definitely vote for a Democratic candidate
Data for ProgressParty & candidate handlingdata flagMar 14–21, 2025
changing federal references from LGBTQ to LGB

In response to President Trump's recent executive orders targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion and transgender inclusion across the federal government, LGBTQ+-inclusive language and information sources have been changed or removed from government materials and websites. Knowing this, do you support or oppose each of the following?

In response to President Trump's recent executive orders targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion and transgender inclusion across the federal government, LGBTQ+-inclusive language and information sources have been changed or removed from government materials and websites. Knowing this, do you support or oppose each of the following? - Changing federal government references from "LGBTQ" to "LGB" to exclude transgender and queer Americans

Support 25%47% Oppose
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 25 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: item text states the purpose as 'to exclude transgender and queer Americans'preamble characterizes the executive orders as 'targeting'
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly support
  • Somewhat support
  • Somewhat oppose
  • Strongly oppose
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressSurveys of trans peopledata flagMar 14–21, 2025
difficulty updating and using the gender marker on legal documents, asked of transgender adults

Have you experienced any of the following as a result of anti-transgender policies and rhetoric in the last year? Please select all that apply.

Sample
asked of a subset: Transgender adults (n=111)full poll: 1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 10 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: attributes the experiences to 'anti-transgender policies and rhetoric' in the stem, so the item measures attributed rather than raw incidence
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Heard anti-transgender remarks from a family, friend, coworker, or neighbor
  • Was intentionally misgendered
  • Did not feel safe going to the doctor or hospital when I was sick or injured out of fear of discrimination or mistreatment
  • Had difficulty using legal documents with my updated gender marker
  • Had difficulty trying to update the gender marker on my legal documents
  • Had to wait excessive amounts of time before receiving gender-affirming medical care
  • Been forced to move or travel out of state to receive my gender-affirming medical care
  • Been forced to go to a new provider in my state to receive my gender-affirming medical care
  • Had my gender-affirming medical care fully discontinued
  • Had an appointment for gender-affirming medical care cancelled
Data for ProgressContact & populationdata flagMar 14–21, 2025
personally knowing a transgender person

Do you personally know someone who is:

Do you personally know someone who is: - Transgender

No
63%
Yes
29%
Don't know
8%
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 3 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: asked as one row of a five-item LGBTQ contact battery
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Yes
  • No
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressYouth medical caredata flagMar 14–21, 2025
government ban vs. families and physicians deciding youth care

Which of the following comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

Families and physicians should decide, not the government
55%
Local school districts and sports associations should set the rules
45%
The federal government should ban transgender girls from playing girls' sports
42%
The government should ban physicians from providing gender-related medical care to transgender youth
33%
Don't know
12%
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 15 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: affirming option uses the 'families and doctors, not politicians' frame that DFP/Navigator message-testing identified as strongest
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The government should ban physicians from providing gender-related medical care to transgender youth
  • Families and physicians should be the ones making decisions about transgender youth medical care, not the government
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressParental rightsdata flagMar 14–21, 2025
families' ability to obtain care for a transgender child

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Families should have the ability to ensure their transgender child can receive medically necessary and developmentally appropriate care

Agree 60%28% Disagree
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 4 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: 'medically necessary and developmentally appropriate' asserts the contested clinical premise inside the item
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressYouth medical caredata flagMar 14–21, 2025
revoking licenses of doctors who provide youth care

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Doctors who provide transgender youth medical care should lose their license to practice medicine

DISAGREE (TOTAL)
50%
AGREE (TOTAL)
37%
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: reverse-worded item - the restrictive position stated affirmatively
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressYouth medical caredata flagMar 14–21, 2025
vignette - 18-year-old on care since age 13

Below are descriptions of people who may be affected by transgender medical care bans. For each, please state whether you think they should or should not be allowed to receive transgender medical care.

Below are descriptions of people who may be affected by transgender medical care bans. For each, please state whether you think they should or should not be allowed to receive transgender medical care. - An 18-year-old who has been prescribed transgender medical care from their doctor since age 13

Should be allowed 54%25% Should not be allowed
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: vignette designsympathetic case selection
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • This individual should be allowed to receive transgender medical care
  • This individual should not be allowed to receive transgender medical care
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressMilitary servicedata flagMar 14–21, 2025
trans military service

Do you support or oppose allowing transgender people who meet eligibility standards to serve in the military?

Support 55%34% Oppose
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: 'who meet eligibility standards' pre-answers the readiness objection
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly support
  • Somewhat support
  • Somewhat oppose
  • Strongly oppose
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressMilitary servicedata flagMar 14–21, 2025
whether trans service members threaten readiness

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Transgender service members threaten our military's readiness

DISAGREE (TOTAL)
53%
AGREE (TOTAL)
32%
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: reverse-worded item stating the restrictive claim
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressSchool policydata flagMar 14–21, 2025
prosecuting teachers who support transgender students

Some lawmakers have argued that teachers who support transgender students, such as by acknowledging changes to a transgender student's name, should be prosecuted.

Some lawmakers have argued that teachers who support transgender students, such as by acknowledging changes to a transgender student's name, should be prosecuted. Do you support or oppose prosecuting teachers who support transgender students?

Strongly oppose
43%
OPPOSE (TOTAL) 61%SUPPORT (TOTAL) 27%
Sample
1,636 adults · +/-2 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: The 1,636-adult sample includes an oversample of 111 transgender adults, weighted back to the trans share of the adult population. A separate battery was asked only of those 111 transgender adults and is reported at +/-9 points; that item is carried here with results labelled 'Transgender adults (n=111)'.

Wording notes: 'support transgender students' is the pollster's gloss on the conduct being criminalizedno counter-argument (parental notification) offered
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly support
  • Somewhat support
  • Somewhat oppose
  • Strongly oppose
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceOct 18–21, 2024
whether both parties should spend less time on transgender issues

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Both Democrats and Republicans should spend less time talking about transgender issues and more time talking about voters' priority issues like the economy and inflation

Agree 80%12% Disagree
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 9 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: double-barreled - pairs 'less on trans issues' with 'more on the economy and inflation'
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceOct 18–21, 2024
reaction to anti-trans political attack ads

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Political attack ads against the transgender community have gotten mean-spirited and out of hand

Agree 54%26% Disagree
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 7 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: 'mean-spirited and out of hand' is the pollster's characterization embedded in the stimulus
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressParty & candidate handlingOct 18–21, 2024
party trusted to handle transgender issues

Which party do you trust more to handle issues related to transgender people?

The Democratic Party
52%
The Republican Party
29%
Neither
19%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 9 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: 'Neither' offered but no 'both equally'
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The Democratic Party
  • The Republican Party
  • Neither
Data for ProgressParty & candidate handlingOct 18–21, 2024
which party has a more extreme stance on transgender issues - the direct 'gone too far' comparison between the parties

Which party do you think has a more extreme stance on issues related to transgender people?

The Republican Party has a more extreme stance
45%
The Democratic Party has a more extreme stance
40%
Neither
14%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 8 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: forces a comparative judgment of extremity rather than measuring each party separately'extreme' is a negatively valenced term applied symmetrically
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The Democratic Party
  • The Republican Party
  • Neither
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceOct 18–21, 2024
candidate preference on transgender rights

Which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?

Government should stay out of people's private lives
57%
A candidate who supports transgender rights
52%
Need new laws restricting transgender health care and keeping "biological boys" out of girls' sports
34%
A candidate who opposes transgender rights
31%
Don't know
18%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 14 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: abstract 'rights' framing without specifying any policy
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • A candidate who opposes transgender rights
  • A candidate who supports transgender rights
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceOct 18–21, 2024
candidate preference restated in concrete policy language, including the 'biological boys in girls' sports' formulation used in 2024 Republican advertising

Which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? [A candidate who says that we need new laws that restrict access to transgender health care and keep "biological boys" out of girls' sports / A candidate who says that the government should stay out of people's private lives and that there is too much legislation targeting a small minority of the population]

Government should stay out of people's private lives / too much legislation targeting a small minority
57%
New laws restricting transgender health care and keeping "biological boys" out of girls' sports
34%
Don't know
9%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 5 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: both options are double-barreled - each bundles two distinct claimsthe restrictive option uses the advertising phrase 'biological boys', in scare quotes in the originalthe affirming option is framed in small-government/libertarian language rather than in trans-rights language, which is itself the persuasion hypothesis being testedthe two options are not matched in emotional register: one names a concrete threat, the other an abstract principle plus a sympathy appeal
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • A candidate who says that we need new laws that restrict access to transgender health care and keep "biological boys" out of girls' sports
  • A candidate who says that the government should stay out of people's private lives and that there is too much legislation targeting a small minority of the population
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressParty & candidate handlingOct 18–21, 2024
whether government should be more or less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [The government should be more involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive / The government should be less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive]

Government should be less involved
58%
Government should be more involved
31%
Don't know
11%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: the two options are exactly parallel apart from more/less, which is unusually clean'regulating what transgender people are allowed to do' is a broad framing that may read as restrictive regardless of the respondent's policy views
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The government should be more involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive
  • The government should be less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressAdult medical careOct 18–21, 2024
government involvement in regulating transgender people and their health care

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

Government should be less involved
58%
Government should be more involved
31%
Don't know
11%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: 'regulating what transgender people are allowed to do' is a broad framing that may read as more intrusive than specific policies
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The government should be more involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive
  • The government should be less involved in regulating what transgender people are allowed to do, including the health care they can receive
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressGeneral acceptanceOct 18–21, 2024
transgender people deserve dignity and respect

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Transgender people deserve to be treated with dignity and respect

Agree 74%18% Disagree
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: valence-loaded agree/disagree item with no counter-statement
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceOct 18–21, 2024
judgment of Republican anti-LGBTQ+ campaign rhetoric

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? - Republican candidates using anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric as part of their campaigns is sad and shameful

Agree 61%25% Disagree
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 4 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: 'sad and shameful' is a strong evaluative label supplied by the pollsternames only one party
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceOct 18–21, 2024
volume of anti-trans state legislation in 2024

Since the start of 2024, more than 500 bills aimed at limiting the rights of transgender people have been introduced in state legislatures across the country.

Since the start of 2024, more than 500 bills aimed at limiting the rights of transgender people have been introduced in state legislatures across the country. Which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

This is too much legislation / political theater
55%
This is the right amount of legislation / real danger
31%
Don't know
13%
Sample
1,216 likely voters · +/- 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Weighted Ns published per column: Democrat 506, Independent/Third party 291, Republican 419; Female 646, Male 570; Under 45 408, 45+ 808; No College 783, College 433; Black 132, White 866, Latino 158. Subgroups with n<50 are suppressed.

Wording notes: numeric preamble (500+ bills)no 'not enough legislation' option
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • This is too much legislation. Politicians are playing political theater and using these bills as a wedge issue.
  • This is the right amount of legislation. Politicians are dealing with a real danger that needs to be addressed.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressContact & populationMar 24–26, 2023
knowing a transgender or nonbinary person

Do you personally know someone who identifies as transgender or nonbinary?

No
58%
Yes
33%
Don't know
9%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 3 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: combines transgender and nonbinary into one category
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Yes, I personally know someone who identifies as transgender or nonbinary
  • No, I do not personally know someone who identifies as transgender or nonbinary
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressContact & populationMar 24–26, 2023
estimated share of adults who are transgender or nonbinary

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today.

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today. - Percentage of adults who identify as transgender or nonbinary

Mean estimate (percent)
20.5%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 3 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: innumeracy item - mean estimates are known to be inflated
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • 0-100 numeric estimate
Data for ProgressContact & populationMar 24–26, 2023
estimated share of under-30s who are transgender or nonbinary

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today.

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today. - Percentage of young people (ages 30 and under) who identify as transgender or nonbinary

Mean estimate (percent)
24.9%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 3 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: innumeracy item
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • 0-100 numeric estimate
Data for ProgressAdult medical careMar 24–26, 2023
perceived regret rate after transition-related care

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today.

Using your best guess, please estimate the percentages of the following groups in America today. - Percentage of transgender adults who regret having pursued gender altering medication and surgery

Mean estimate (percent)
29%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 3 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: uses 'gender altering medication and surgery' rather than clinical terminology
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • 0-100 numeric estimate
Data for ProgressGeneral acceptanceMar 24–26, 2023
whether trans visibility threatens heterosexual families

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups?

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups? - Heterosexual families

No
61%
Yes
27%
Don't know
13%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: adopts the 'threat' frame of opponents in order to measure its uptake
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Yes
  • No
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressGeneral acceptanceMar 24–26, 2023
whether trans visibility threatens children

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups?

In your opinion, does the increased visibility of transgender people in America represent a threat to the following groups? - Children

No
49%
Yes
40%
Don't know
12%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: adopts the 'threat to children' frame of opponents
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Yes
  • No
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressParty & candidate handlingMar 24–26, 2023
whether the Democratic Party should do more to protect trans and queer Americans

This question was only shown to respondents who indicated they identified as Democrats, or as Independent or third party supporters who said they typically leaned more toward Democrats.

Should the Democratic Party be doing more to protect the rights of transgender and queer Americans from anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, or is the Democratic Party already doing enough to protect the rights of transgender and queer Americans?

Sample
asked of a subset: Democrat, Democrats and Democratic leaners (item base), Independent / Third party (Dem-leaning)full poll: 1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 7 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: Democrats and Democratic leaners only'already doing enough' is the only alternative to 'more' - 'doing too much' is not offered
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The Democratic Party should be doing more
  • The Democratic Party is already doing enough
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressAdult medical careMar 24–26, 2023
adult access to gender-affirming surgery

When thinking about the right of transgender adults to pursue surgeries which change their appearance and body, which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

Should be allowed 69%22% Should not be allowed
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: affirming option concedes 'procedures they could regret'restrictive option is stated in explicitly traditionalist 'natural order' terms rather than a medical or safety rationale
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Transgender adults should be allowed to change their bodies however they want. Free societies should let people make their own choices, even for procedures they could regret.
  • Transgender adults should not be allowed to change their bodies however they want. There is a natural order to things that needs to be preserved in our society.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressIdentity beliefsMar 24–26, 2023
whether transgender identity is a modern invention or a natural phenomenon

When thinking about the existence of transgender identities, which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

Natural phenomenon that has occurred throughout history
57%
New phenomenon created by modern woke culture
33%
Don't know
11%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: restrictive option uses 'woke culture' and an explicit intent-to-harm claimasymmetric intensity between the two options
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Transgender identities are a new phenomenon created by our modern woke culture. These identities are invented in order to harm our children and our future.
  • Transgender identities are a natural phenomenon that has occurred throughout history. It's normal for free societies to have individuals who identify outside of the norm.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceMar 24–26, 2023
volume of anti-trans state legislation

There are currently 429 bills passing through state legislatures aimed at limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America.

There are currently 429 bills passing through state legislatures aimed at limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America. Which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?

This is too much legislation / political theater
64%
This is the right amount of legislation / real danger
25%
Sample
1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 3 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: numeric preamble (429 bills) supplies an anchorno 'not enough legislation' option
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • This is too much legislation. Politicians are playing political theater and using these bills as a wedge issue.
  • This is the right amount of legislation. Politicians are dealing with a real danger that needs to be addressed.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressPolitical salienceMar 24–26, 2023
vote effect of a candidate who filibusters anti-LGBTQ+ bills

This question was only shown to respondents who indicated they identified as Democrats, or as Independent or third party supporters who said they typically leaned more toward Democrats.

There are currently 429 bills passing through state legislatures aimed at limiting the rights of transgender and gay people in America. In Nebraska, State Senator Machaela Cavanaugh has been filibustering for four weeks to prevent the state legislature from considering bills that would ban doctors from providing gender-affirming medical care to minors, stating the following explanation: "We were not sent here to legislate hate. We were sent here to do the business of the state, which is tax policy, and budgets; there's so much work to be done to address the economic crisis that we are all in in this country." Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who filibusters anti-LGBTQ+ bills to prevent their passage?

Sample
asked of a subset: Democrats and Democratic leaners (item base)full poll: 1,220 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 8 subgroup figures

Base: Questions [7] and [11] were asked only of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents/third-party supporters (N=540).

Wording notes: long sympathetic preamble quoting the legislatorDemocrats and Democratic leaners only
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Much more likely
  • Somewhat more likely
  • Somewhat less likely
  • Much less likely
  • Wouldn't affect my choice
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressDrag & public expressionMar 15–20, 2023
exposure to drag performance

Drag shows are a form of entertainment where drag artists impersonate men or women, often involving singing, lip-synching, dancing, comedy, and audience interaction.

Drag shows are a form of entertainment where drag artists impersonate men or women, often involving singing, lip-synching, dancing, comedy, and audience interaction. Have you ever seen a drag performance, either in person or on television?

No, have not seen a drag performance
43%
Yes, on television but not in person
33%
Yes, in person
24%
Sample
1,204 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures
Wording notes: definitional preamble frames drag as impersonation of men or women
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Yes, I have seen a drag performance in person
  • Yes, I have seen a drag performance on television, but not in person
  • No, I have not seen a drag performance in person or on television
Data for ProgressDrag & public expressionMar 15–20, 2023
classifying drag shows as sexually oriented businesses

Some legislators are proposing new legislation that would classify any shows where performers express a gender identity that is different from what they were assigned at birth - such as drag shows - as "sexually oriented businesses."

Some legislators are proposing new legislation that would classify any shows where performers express a gender identity that is different from what they were assigned at birth - such as drag shows - as "sexually oriented businesses." Do you think that drag shows are sexually oriented businesses?

Drag shows are not sexually oriented businesses
46%
Drag shows are sexually oriented businesses
44%
Don't know
10%
Sample
1,204 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures
Wording notes: preamble supplies the legislative frame before the judgment is asked
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Drag shows are not sexually oriented businesses
  • Drag shows are sexually oriented businesses
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressDrag & public expressionMar 15–20, 2023
banning drag in public spaces and imprisoning performers

Some legislators have proposed legislation to ban drag shows in public spaces that can be viewed by children, such as coffee shops and bookstores. People who violate this rule face a fine of up to $5,000, and up to two years in prison.

Some legislators have proposed legislation to ban drag shows in public spaces that can be viewed by children, such as coffee shops and bookstores. People who violate this rule face a fine of up to $5,000, and up to two years in prison. Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right?

Allow drag shows in public spaces to continue
36%
Ban, but do not imprison drag artists
34%
Ban and imprison drag artists who violate the rules
21%
Don't know
9%
Sample
1,204 likely voters · ±3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 9 subgroup figures
Wording notes: preamble states the criminal penaltythree-way split separates the ban from the imprisonment penalty
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • We should allow drag shows in public spaces to continue.
  • We should ban drag shows in public spaces, but should not imprison drag artists who violate this rule.
  • We should ban drag shows in public spaces and place drag artists who violate the rules in prison.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressGeneral acceptanceFeb 8–13, 2022
whether increased visibility and rights of transgender individuals made society better or worse

When thinking about the impact of increased visibility and rights of transgender individuals over the past decade, which comes closer to your view, even if neither is completely right?

Made society better
45%
Made society worse
39%
Don't know
16%
Sample
1,321 likely voters · plus or minus 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 13 subgroup figures
Wording notes: no explicit 'no difference' midpoint
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Increased visibility and rights of transgender individuals have made society better.
  • Increased visibility and rights of transgender individuals have made society worse.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressNondiscriminationFeb 8–13, 2022
government protection of trans rights vs. traditional family structures

When thinking about transgender rights, which comes closer to you view, even if neither is exactly right?

Government should protect the rights of transgender Americans
47%
Government should prioritize traditional family structures and social norms
42%
Don't know
11%
Sample
1,321 likely voters · plus or minus 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures
Wording notes: affirming option carries a concession clause ('even if it means changing traditional family structures')restrictive option is stated without a countervailing cost
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • The government should protect the rights of transgender Americans, even if it means changing traditional family structures and social norms.
  • The government should prioritize traditional family structures and social norms over the rights of transgender Americans.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressYouth medical careFeb 8–13, 2022
the 2022 wave of state bills on medical transition and sports for transgender minors

This year, dozens of states are considering legislation to prevent children who identify as transgender from pursuing medical transition or participating in competitive sports. Supporters of the legislation argue that these policies are necessary to ensure the fairness of children's sports and protect children from pursuing medical treatments they might later regret. Opponents of this legislation argue that these policies unfairly discriminate against transgender children and will increase the rates at which transgender kids experience harassment and violence.

When thinking about this proposed legislation, which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

Necessary to ensure the safety and wellbeing of our children
48%
Unfair and discriminatory towards transgender children
38%
Don't know
13%
Sample
1,321 likely voters · plus or minus 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 6 subgroup figures
Wording notes: two-sided argument preamble supplieddouble-barreled: bundles medical transition bans and sports bans into a single object
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Legislation preventing transgender children from pursuing medical transition and participating in sports is unfair and discriminatory towards transgender children.
  • Legislation preventing transgender children from pursuing medical transition and participating in sports is necessary to ensure the safety and wellbeing of our children.
  • Don't know
Data for ProgressContact & populationFeb 8–13, 2022
personally knowing a transgender person

Do you personally know anyone who identifies as transgender?

No, I do not personally know anyone who identifies as transgender
67%
Yes, I personally know someone who identifies as transgender
26%
Don't know
6%
Sample
1,321 likely voters · plus or minus 3 percentage points
Method
online opt-in
Where
US national
Source
Pollster release(opens another site)PDF, external
Full record · 3 subgroup figures
Response options as the pollster wrote them
  • Yes, I personally know someone who identifies as transgender
  • No, I do not personally know anyone who identifies as transgender
  • Don't know

Figures transcribed from public sources; each links to the original release. How to read this data →